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Pattern Hotober

Chances are the cold won’t be as cold behind the front next week, as modeled currently
 
ICON holds steady with CAD, agreement with GFS
icon_T2m_seus_35.png
 
SoutheastRidge said:
According to weather.com, you stay warm all the way thru Oct 15th. I dont see anything below 80 for Jackson, AL.
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That's why I dont look at weather.com because it changes every time. Better than 97 degree that I been having. When i checked late last night for my forecast it had me upper 70s for highs mid 50s night. So I dont buy what weather.com says half the time
 
The lowest high temperature at the official station for this area from the 23rd-30th is 92. Everything else has been 94+. Yesterday was 99 and it felt like 100+ in the sun early in the afternoon. It's been worse in areas like Macon or down accu35's way.

I'll take 80s with a smile, tyvm (and I think that's actually average and possibly slightly below in some areas). Although I at first might not be happy if we lose the CAD entirely.
 
Anyone else notice this SER will not budge late this year? This time last year I think we already had our first spell of cooler wx.


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CADEffect said:
Anyone else notice this SER will not budge late this year? This time last year I think we already had our first spell of cooler wx.


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I think this year just felt worse than last year. Last year didn't get a lot better until Michael helped to play a part in changing the global pattern. This year its Lorenzo that's supposed to be changing it.
 
Even if you want to consider a cold bias with the GFS, considering that the Euro also seems on board, we might be a little ahead of last year on the first true fall front in the south despite late September being absolutely awful.
 
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A little bit interested in that cold front next week, ofc it’s not nothing much severe weather wise on the models but with a uptick in shear, always needa watch instability and the gfs has been complete garbage with instability this past summer, so is the legacy, but always need to watch veering profiles like this, nice sounding for a fall squall line when in comes to the winds aloft (veering from the SW from the SFC to the EL)98287DE2-A0EB-4B45-A524-007144845A80.png72B2CF9E-8A89-4ADB-A426-08AEA7AF0B03.png87FB8AF1-6B7F-4914-B6FE-765CFDA3D92D.png
 
CADEffect said:
Anyone else notice this SER will not budge late this year? This time last year I think we already had our first spell of cooler wx.


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Maybe overall warmer as far as high temps, but we didn't get below 60 degrees here in Columbia until the morning after Hurricane Matthew (Oct 12th). We had absolutely no cool air in September or the first half of October last year. We atleast got a little shot at Fall air a couple weeks ago around here. The start of Fall last year was brutal, it was basically Summer until October 12th when that pattern changing cold front moved through.
 
Has there ever been a more impressive heat wave ? Birmingham has shattered its previously hottest October temp of 94. So far today they have hit 98.
 
CADEffect said:
Sleet do you trust the ICON?


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Seeing as its been holding this solution for a while, and that this solution is in line with what most other models are showing, I'd say yes. But the actual high temps shown will likely be different. (I'm thinking a tad warmer)
 
1954 must have been crazy hot. I see records from that year all over.


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SoutheastRidge said:
Has there ever been a more impressive heat wave ? Birmingham has shattered its previously hottest October temp of 94. So far today they have hit 98.
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This is an interesting conversation. When you factor in the time of the year its occurring its arguably top 5/10ish

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And the GFS is consistent as well. Don't think I need to post these anymore, looks like this CAD event is gonna happen (although GFS cold bias makes it probably 5-8 degrees cooler than it actually will be)
gfs_T2m_seus_17.png
 
HOTTEST OCTOBER DAY: As advertised, today is the hottest October day on record for Alabama. Temperatures at 3:00p CT include…
Tuscaloosa 99 (they hit 100 at 2:00p CT)
Muscle Shoals 99
Selma 99
Shelby County Airport (BMX weather office) 100 ... this is within 5 miles of my home
Birmingham 98
Anniston 98
Prattville 98
Montgomery 97
Huntsville 97
Demopolis 96
Gadsden 94
Mobile 94

this is looking mighty fine for next ween and after
temps.png
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
HOTTEST OCTOBER DAY: As advertised, today is the hottest October day on record for Alabama. Temperatures at 3:00p CT include…
Tuscaloosa 99 (they hit 100 at 2:00p CT)
Muscle Shoals 99
Selma 99
Shelby County Airport (BMX weather office) 100 ... this is within 5 miles of my home
Birmingham 98
Anniston 98
Prattville 98
Montgomery 97
Huntsville 97
Demopolis 96
Gadsden 94
Mobile 94

this is looking mighty fine for next ween and after
View attachment 24197
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Still at or above average if those temps verify, but better than what it's been.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Gotta watch that ULL next week in NC/SC/VA, HSLC severe event is possible, 18z gfs shows this well, nice uptick in low level shear and deep layer shear, those HSLC events can be sneaky
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Is it gonna make its own cold air?
 
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