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Misc Historic solar cycle minimum coming

The spotless streak ended at 24 days due to a very short lived tiny spot part of yesterday. Now it is spotless again and a new streak has started.
 
okay, it's seriously time to consider sunspots is pseudo-science... like astrology.
 
There's a lot we have yet to learn about the solar cycle/climate connection. Saying it's pseudo-science is premature imo.
 
Rain Cold said:
There's a lot we have yet to learn about the solar cycle/climate connection. Saying it's pseudo-science is premature imo.
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Definitely true. Science is always changing. What we see as true today could very well not be tomorrow. New things are always being discovered. Also, just because it doesn't seem to be connected based on current information and perspective doesn't mean it shouldn't be studied further and classified as false.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Definitely true. Science is always changing. What we see as true today could very well not be tomorrow. New things are always being discovered. Also, just because it doesn't seem to be connected based on current information and perspective doesn't mean it shouldn't be studied further and classified as false.
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Yep, good post.
 
whamby said:
yeah, if AGW is 'voodoo', solar cycles affecting climate is doodoo.
720px-Temp-sunspot-co2.svg.png
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I have two problems with this graph:
1) It doesn't take lag into account. When there is a sunny day and no front coming through, the average time of the high of the day is several hours after when the sun is highest in the sky. Also, the ocean is warmest about two months after the summer solstice and land is warmest about one month after it. So, the globe won't cool immediately after the solar cycles start weakening. 1950-2000 was the most active 50 year period ("Modern Maximum", a grand maximum) for the sun in at least 400 years and quite possibly in 2000 or more years. Do you think that the globe can instantly cool back down after that? The oceans, which cover over 2/3 of the Earth's surface, store an enormous amount of heat. It is hard to imagine global temperatures turning on a dime and cooling right when the solar cycles start weakening. There has to be a lag and it is likely not short.

2) This chart only goes back to 1850, which is well after the last grand minimum, Dalton. So, it won't show the relationship between grand minima and global temps. If this had gone back at least several hundred more years, it may have painted a different picture.
 
Sorry, guys.. I was drunk and being a bit troll-y with my comments in this thread... I'll try to argue better in the future.
 
As you can see, I have not posted here in almost a year! The reason is that whereas the sun has been mostly quiet and slowly heading to even quieter, there have still been occasional bursts of mainly weak activity interspersed. However, I’m now seeing what may finally be a firmer move down closer to absolute minimum as this appears to be the quietest yet with the longest streak of spotless days yet whether you look at Solarham or at SIDC:

http://www.solarham.net/wwv.htm

http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles

I started this thread only because I’ve been anticipating the deepest cycle minimum in at least 200 years and we may finally actually see evidence of this soon. Whereas the first 4.5 months of 2019 have at times been a little more active than what I had expected, the rest of 2019 as well as all of 2020 into 2021 and possibly even lingering into 2022 may be the big show I’ve been expecting. Let’s sit back and watch what may very well be an historically deep minimum!
 
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GaWx said:
As you can see, I have not posted here in almost a year! The reason is that whereas the sun has been mostly quiet and slowly heading to even quieter, there have still been occasional bursts of mainly weak activity interspersed. However, I’m now seeing what may finally be a firmer move down closer to absolute minimum as this appears to be the quietest yet:

http://www.solarham.net/wwv.htm

I started this thread only because I’ve been anticipating the deepest cycle minimum in at least 200 years and we may finally actually see evidence of this soon. Whereas the first 4.5 months of 2019 have at times been a little more active than what I had expected, the rest of 2019 as well as all of 2020 into early 2021 may be the big show I’ve been expecting. Let’s sit back and watch what may very well be an historically deep minimum!
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Make winters great again! Who am I kidding? We know the SER will continue to ruin our winters!
 
GaWx said:
As you can see, I have not posted here in almost a year! The reason is that whereas the sun has been mostly quiet and slowly heading to even quieter, there have still been occasional bursts of mainly weak activity interspersed. However, I’m now seeing what may finally be a firmer move down closer to absolute minimum as this appears to be the quietest yet with the longest streak of spotless days yet whether you look at Solarham or at SIDC:

http://www.solarham.net/wwv.htm

http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles

I started this thread only because I’ve been anticipating the deepest cycle minimum in at least 200 years and we may finally actually see evidence of this soon. Whereas the first 4.5 months of 2019 have at times been a little more active than what I had expected, the rest of 2019 as well as all of 2020 into 2021 and possibly even lingering into 2022 may be the big show I’ve been expecting. Let’s sit back and watch what may very well be an historically deep minimum!
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I am not going to be selfish and wish for the coldest winter ever. I just want to see some recovery in the arctic sea ice. I know that's asking a lot.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I am not going to be selfish and wish for the coldest winter ever. I just want to see some recovery in the arctic sea ice. I know that's asking a lot.
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Forget our winter.....even the recovery in Arctic sea ice is asking for a lot. Not going to happen imo from the sun. Why? Because I feel we should have already seen clear signs of cooling by now if the sun were going to be a significant global cooling factor. I'm going back to 2006, when the current period of overall solar weakness started between these last 2 very weak cycles. Instead, we're near multidecadal+ highs for global warmth. So, I'm now viewing this as mainly an astronomical event and not met. It is still interesting to me.
 
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GaWx said:
Forget our winter.....even the recovery in Arctic sea ice is asking for a lot. Not going to happen imo from the sun. Why? Because I feel we should have already seen clear signs of cooling by now if the sun were going to be a significant global cooling factor. I'm going back to 2006, when the current period of overall solar weakness started between these last 2 very weak cycles. Instead, we're near multidecadal+ highs for global warmth. So, I'm now viewing this as mainly an astronomical event and not met. It is still interesting to me.
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It takes a coffee pot a while to cool down from a boil, even when the stove burner is and has been off ... let's see what lag time brings in a year, or 3 or even 10 ... Yes, it's not "next winter" but that is but a fleeting glimpse in global time ...
 
GaWx said:
Forget our winter.....even the recovery in Arctic sea ice is asking for a lot. Not going to happen imo from the sun. Why? Because I feel we should have already seen clear signs of cooling by now if the sun were going to be a significant global cooling factor. I'm going back to 2006, when the current period of overall solar weakness started between these last 2 very weak cycles. Instead, we're near multidecadal+ highs for global warmth. So, I'm now viewing this as mainly an astronomical event and not met. It is still interesting to me.
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Larry,
I have this feeling they'll probably wheel me out in a chair to see the next Gainesville snow storm ... but dadgumit, we're gonna get one some decade or another ... sunspots or not ... :cool:
 
pcbjr said:
It takes a coffee pot a while to cool down from a boil, even when the stove burner is and has been off ... let's see what lag time brings in a year, or 3 or even 10 ... Yes, it's not "next winter" but that is but a fleeting glimpse in global time ...
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I’ve been saying this, myself, since the early 2010s. In my mind, I was giving it til the late 2010s to finally see cooling. I’ve actually posted this on a number of occasions due to the idea of lag. However, at some point, there comes a time to give up, especially with global temps STILL warming. Unlike JB, I’m not too stubborn to give up, especially when a timeline I set is crossed.
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
I have this feeling they'll probably wheel me out in a chair to see the next Gainesville snow storm ... but dadgumit, we're gonna get one some decade or another ... sunspots or not ... :cool:
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Now freak snowstorms every now and then in the Deep South are a horse of a way different color than the overall idea of warmer winters. If Miami could get snow in 1977, Gainesville surely could get it even with a significantly warmer world in the 21st century. Geez, who’s to say that Miami doesn’t get snow again at some point during the next few hundred years no matter how much the globe warms?
Edit: My area just had its largest winter storm liquid equivalent since the big 1922 ice storm that later indirectly became the Knickerbocker storm further north! Just an example.
 
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JB says little ice age returns, to DC-New England! ???
 
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