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Misc Historic solar cycle minimum coming

pcbjr said:
Larry,
I'm sure you've probably posted it or alluded to it, but I'm not finding ... and I'm awfully tight for time (so any direction pointing is most appreciated!).
Low to no spots equals what (generally) for weather? I guess my focus would be winter and summer in particular.
Can you direct me to some data or something you've posted?
Thanks!
Phil
Click to expand...

Phil,
I haven't posted any specifics about any possible correlation of low spots to weather although some others have somewhere, which I think included the chances for high latitude blocking. I did my own analysis sometime back and was unable to find much correlation of winters with either sun or QBO.

My focus on the POSSIBLE nontrivial connection of a "grand minimum" of sunspots to cooler weather is more on a global and multidecadal scale with an unknown amount of lag likely in the mix. I'm talking about a multiple cycle grand minimum rather than just a single cycle minimum. Whether or not there will end up being nontrivial global cooling from what looks like a modern "grand minimum" is very much up in the air. We'll just have to watch and see what does or doesn't happen over the next however many years. To this point, there's still no concrete evidence that the weakest cycle max in 100 years or so, 2008-9, lead to any cooling of note. I'm still saying this 8 years later. But now we're about to have a 2nd weak minimum with this one likely quite a bit weaker (weakest in at least ~200 years) and longer.

To summarize, my answer is that I don't know. Honestly, I don't think anyone really knows.

Aside: we just got 3 days in a row of spotless. I'm not sure if we'll get another today due to a couple of visible specks.
 
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GaWx said:
Phil,
I haven't posted any specifics about any possible correlation of low spots to weather although some others have somewhere, which I think included the chances for high latitude blocking. I did my own analysis sometime back and was unable to find much correlation of winters with either sun or QBO.

My focus on the POSSIBLE nontrivial connection of a "grand minimum" of sunspots to cooler weather is more on a global and multidecadal scale with an unknown amount of lag likely in the mix. I'm talking about a multiple cycle grand minimum rather than just a single cycle minimum. Whether or not there will end up being nontrivial global cooling from what looks like a modern "grand minimum" is very much up in the air. We'll just have to watch and see what does or doesn't happen over the next however many years. To this point, there's still no concrete evidence that the weakest cycle max in 100 years or so, 2008-9, lead to any cooling of note. I'm still saying this 8 years later. But now we're about to have a 2nd weak minimum with this one likely quite a bit weaker (weakest in at least ~200 years) and longer.

To summarize, my answer is that I don't know. Honestly, I don't think anyone really knows.

Aside: we just got 3 days in a row of spotless. I'm not sure if we'll get another today due to a couple of visible specks.
Click to expand...

Thanks as always, Larry!
Best!
Phil
 
1. It looks like we're headed for a 6th straight spotless day today most likely. This would already make 36 spotless days year to date, which is higher than that for all of 2016 (32).

2. As sunspots/flux go down, cosmic rays hitting Earth intensify. They have increased 13% since March of 2015 per this:
http://spaceweather.com/images2017/12may17/radplot_strip.png

There is a theory that increased cosmic ray intensity increases the number of nuclei around which low cloud droplets form, which increases low cloudcover, which decreases global temperatures. In other words, that would be, if true, an indirect cooling effect of cycle minima on top of the very small direct cooling effect. What I'm wondering is if this possible indirect cooling intensifies further during Grand Minima like the one that we appear to be within the early stages of. Nobody knows. And even if true, the length of any lag is a big unknown.

Edit on 5/15: I see a small spot has rotated onto the visible disk from the left. That may stop the current spotless streak at 6 days.

Edit on 5/16: Actually, the spotless streak ended at 7 days. Currently, there is one small area on the left side that is the one that rotated into the disk from the left on 5/15.
 
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Today looks to already be the 41st spotless day of 2017 and 3rd day in a row. That compares to only 32 for all of 2016. Projecting ahead, I think we are easily on the way to 100+ spotless days in 2017 and over 1/2 of 2018 days to be spotless but we'll see. What looks like a non-spot plage region has recently rotated onto the far left side.

Plage info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plage_(astronomy)

Based on that plage region not appearing to be new, I'm leaning toward it not producing any new spots. If so, there could easily be at least several more days of spotless in the current streak based on recent stereo images from behind the sun.
 
GaWx said:
Today looks to already be the 41st spotless day of 2017 and 3rd day in a row. That compares to only 32 for all of 2016. Projecting ahead, I think we are easily on the way to 100+ spotless days in 2017 and over 1/2 of 2018 days to be spotless but we'll see. What looks like a non-spot plage region has recently rotated onto the far left side.

Plage info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plage_(astronomy)

Based on that plage region not appearing to be new, I'm leaning toward it not producing any new spots. If so, there could easily be at least several more days of spotless in the current streak based on recent stereo images from behind the sun.
Click to expand...
Thanks, Larry!
Wish this would lock in a massively cold winter, but alas ...
 
Well, we've quietly gone into another lengthy spotless streak. As of today, we're at 7 days. i was waiting to see what was rotating onto the left side but it appears to be spotless (just plage). Looking at Stereo images from behind the visible side of the sun, we may very well not have anything new rotating onto the visible disk for at least 4 days. So, if nothing new pops up on the visible disk, we could easily end up with an 11 day spotless streak/55 days YTD and possibly still counting. I've already predicted we'll easily get to 100+ days for the full 2017. The last time there was a streak of 11+ days was the 15 day streak of March. Based on history, we're kind of due for another long streak. Normally, the longest of spotless steaks over a multi-month long period tends to get longer and longer as cycle minimum gets closer. I'd be surprised if we don't get one or more streaks of 16+ days by year's end. Perhaps this will end up being one of them. We'll see.

Edit on 7/26: and just like that the streak ended st 7 days as a tiny spot popped up yesterday. However, that tiny spot lasted only hours thus leaving the visible disk spotless again.
 
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Down below is a brand new video release of an interview done of the astrophysicist and mathematician, Professor Valentina Zharkova, who back in 2015 (though I just learned about her today) predicted in a peer reviewed paper and presentation that the sun is shortly headed for a less lengthy version of a Maunder type of Grand Minimum of sunspots. Per the Royal Astronomical Society,

"A new model of the Sun’s solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun’s 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ that began in 1645."

Note that the above quote from the RAS doesn't actually say that we're headed for another mini ice age but that the model has the sun headed for a minimum of sunspot activity not seen since the mini ice age. Also, though she predicts in the below linked video global cooling to soon commence as a result of the sun, the peer reviewed paper, itself, does not predict we're going to go into a mini ice age as it doesn't address climate change. Also, though she refers to a 1.5 C cooling in the N hemisphere during the Maunder Minimum, she doesn't predict in the video that there'd necessarily be that much cooling with an attendant mini ice age.

Link to paper:

https://www.researchgate.net/public...on_of_solar_activity_on_a_millenium_timescale

The brand new video:



My thoughts: I've already stated several times in this thread and without ever hearing of this astrophycicist that I do think we're likely headed for a new Grand Minimum (at least as quiet as the Dalton Minimum of the early 1800s) based on how low the number of sunspots have been recently and comparing to the last 200+ years of sunspot number patterns (statistical approach). Dr. Zharkova goes even further and predicts another Maunder Minimum (though half as long). Assuming we really are headed for a shorter version of a Maunder type of Grand Minimum, nobody really knows how much global cooling, if any, would result. Perhaps all it would do is to slow GW or maybe even stop it for a few decades. The uncertainties of how quiet sunspot activity may be about to get over the next few decades as well as how much this MIGHT reduce the effects of AGW are exciting because we get to watch in real time and see what happens!
 
GaWx said:
Down below is a brand new video release of an interview done of the astrophysicist and mathematician, Professor Valentina Zharkova, who back in 2015 (though I just learned about her today) predicted in a peer reviewed paper and presentation that the sun is shortly headed for a less lengthy version of a Maunder type of Grand Minimum of sunspots. Per the Royal Astronomical Society,

"A new model of the Sun’s solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun’s 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ that began in 1645."

Note that the above quote from the RAS doesn't actually say that we're headed for another mini ice age but that the model has the sun headed for a minimum of sunspot activity not seen since the mini ice age. Also, though she predicts in the below linked video global cooling to soon commence as a result of the sun, the peer reviewed paper, itself, does not predict we're going to go into a mini ice age as it doesn't address climate change. Also, though she refers to a 1.5 C cooling in the N hemisphere during the Maunder Minimum, she doesn't predict in the video that there'd necessarily be that much cooling with an attendant mini ice age.

Link to paper:

https://www.researchgate.net/public...on_of_solar_activity_on_a_millenium_timescale

The brand new video:



My thoughts: I've already stated several times in this thread and without ever hearing of this astrophycicist that I do think we're likely headed for a new Grand Minimum (at least as quiet as the Dalton Minimum of the early 1800s) based on how low the number of sunspots have been recently and comparing to the last 200+ years of sunspot number patterns (statistical approach). Dr. Zharkova goes even further and predicts another Maunder Minimum (though half as long). Assuming we really are headed for a shorter version of a Maunder type of Grand Minimum, nobody really knows how much global cooling, if any, would result. Perhaps all it would do is to slow GW or maybe even stop it for a few decades. The uncertainties of how quiet sunspot activity may be about to get over the next few decades as well as how much this MIGHT reduce the effects of AGW are exciting because we get to watch in real time and see what happens!
Click to expand...


WOW, Larry!
Amazing and thanks!
Phil

Here's hoping ... :~)

default_mapsnow.gif
 
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I haven't posted here since early August because I generally tend to post mostly about the sun getting quieter as we approach the expected grand minimum. Well, it has been anything but quiet since mid August.with early Sept having had several days of the highest daily flux in about 2 years and an enormous solar flare!! There hasn't even been one spotless day since around 7/31! However, today may finally break that streak. Also, stereo images suggest we may be about to enter a string of spotless days. One thing's for certain in my mind: if we really are going to have a deep minimum in and around 2019-21, the sun is going to have to go back to being mainly quiet pretty soon and add a good number of spotless days the rest of 2017 to get the trend back in the right direction. Let's see what happens.

Edit: we're currently at ~50 spotless days year to date excluding today. In June and July, before this recent much more active period, I had predicted 100+ for all of 2017. In order to get that, 50+ of the next 85 days will need to be spotless.
 
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GaWx said:
I haven't posted here since early August because I generally tend to post mostly about the sun getting quieter as we approach the expected grand minimum. Well, it has been anything but quiet since mid August.with early Sept having had several days of the highest daily flux in about 2 years and an enormous solar flare!! There hasn't even been one spotless day since around 7/31! However, today may finally break that streak. Also, stereo images suggest we may be about to enter a string of spotless days. One thing's for certain in my mind: if we really are going to have a deep minimum in and around 2019-21, the sun is going to have to go back to being mainly quiet pretty soon and add a good number of spotless days the rest of 2017 to get the trend back in the right direction. Let's see what happens.

Edit: we're currently at ~50 spotless days year to date excluding today. In June and July, before this recent much more active period, I had predicted 100+ for all of 2017. In order to get that, 50+ of the next 85 days will need to be spotless.
Click to expand...
Today we have 0 sunspots, so let's see how long this lasts. We have had 57 this year, and 32 last year, and 2011 to 2015 had only 3 spotless days in that 5 year span. That seems to indicate we are falling, and that next year we should have way more spotless days.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Today we have 0 sunspots, so let's see how long this lasts. We have had 57 this year, and 32 last year, and 2011 to 2015 had only 3 spotless days in that 5 year span. That seems to indicate we are falling, and that next year we should have way more spotless days.
Click to expand...

That spotless streak ended up being 7 days and it ended when a very small group appeared on Sunday. By your count, there have been 63 spotless days in 2017.

Edit: That tiny spot is already gone.
 
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Read an article about how satellites are no longer being made with the highly reflective material iridium, so for those of you who like to watch iridium flares like I do better catch them while you can. Watched a beautiful one last night. For those who don't know about them do a quick Google search. I have an app called Sputnik that shows when and where to look.
 
Lostnthaweather85 said:
Read an article about how satellites are no longer being made with the highly reflective material iridium, so for those of you who like to watch iridium flares like I do better catch them while you can. Watched a beautiful one last night. For those who don't know about them do a quick Google search. I have an app called Sputnik that shows when and where to look.
Click to expand...
I use the website Heavens-Above.com
 
GaWx said:
That spotless streak ended up being 7 days and it ended when a very small group appeared on Sunday. By your count, there have been 63 spotless days in 2017.

Edit: That tiny spot is already gone.
Click to expand...

Since this last post of 10/16, about half the days have been spotless including the last 5. Also, the Stereo images of the other side look very quiet. So, the current five day streak may get a lot longer. We may very well get that 100+ day spotless 2017.
I wasn't as optimistic about that chance just one month ago. But having 16-17 spotless days since then along with very quiet looking Stereo images will do wonders.
 
The sun has for the past month been just about as quiet as it has been since just after the end of the 2008-9 deep minimum when also considering that the stereo images from the other side of the sun suggest it is also very quiet there. We're now at 7 days' spotless with no end in sight at the moment (though a new spot could always pop up) and a very low 68 flux. Considering that we're likely still at least close to 3 years from the upcoming minimum, the upcoming minimum continues to
have the prospect of being the weakest at least since the Dalton minima of 200 years ago!
 
I'm very impressed with how quiet is the sun. All days in November have been spotless so far. Stereo images suggest the current spotless streak may go on for a while longer. We are clearly quieter than the prior cycle, which itself was the quietest in ~100 years.
Current solar flux is very low:

http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
 
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Still no sunspots in November so far! So, today will make a very impressive 12 days in a row of spotless! Stereo images suggest the chance for a new sunspot to rotate onto the left side tonight or tomorrow. If that doesn't turn out to be a sunspot, this spotless streak could go on for a good number of days more.

Edit 11/14: We finally got a spot on 11/14 after 13 spotless days in a row. It is the only game in town on either side of the sun.
 
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The sun has been spotless again for several days and looks about as quiet as it can possibly look on the other side per the Stereo imagery. So, absent any new spots popping up, we may be in the midst of still another long spotless streak. With the amount of time expected before the next cycle min, it is definitely acting like a grand solar minimum. If there are no new sunspots over the next 8 days, Nov will come in sub 3, a type of month that in some cycles is never seen and in others is seen only very close to the cycle min. Regardless, Nov is now about guaranteed to come in as the first single number month of this cycle's quieting time. Exciting times!
 
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The sun continues to be deader than a doornail with spotless days dominating the last couple of months and daily flux down to 68 yesterday. Stereo images show nothing on the immediate horizon to rotate onto the visible disk over the next few days. Pre "grand minimum" conditions continue.
 
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