ForsythSnow
Moderator
We are getting closer and closer to 100 spotless days for they year now as well. Wonder how many days we will have in 2018.
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Misc Historic solar cycle minimum coming
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
^ We ended up with very close to 100 spotless days in 2017 but it varies from just below to just above depending on the source of the count.
Meanwhile, January of 2018 has been VERY quiet and we're currently on an 11 day spotless steak. The oncoming Grand Minimum very much remains on track!
Meanwhile, January of 2018 has been VERY quiet and we're currently on an 11 day spotless steak. The oncoming Grand Minimum very much remains on track!
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Fwiw:
https://nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/
I'm remaining open minded about what this anticipated upcoming Grand Minimum will or won't do as far as cooling the globe back down. I don't think anyone really knows.
https://nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/
I'm remaining open minded about what this anticipated upcoming Grand Minimum will or won't do as far as cooling the globe back down. I don't think anyone really knows.
pcbjr
Member
Unfortunately, if it cools down, by then I'll probably need a blanket and a scarf in Florida, even for "normal" weather ... age and all ... LOL
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I've enjoyed following this thread. Just saw this about an incoming solar storm...
http://www.ajc.com/news/national/so...-erupt-sun-nasa-warns/a9NHTZzTwEOhCVeBuF5PYK/
http://www.ajc.com/news/national/so...-erupt-sun-nasa-warns/a9NHTZzTwEOhCVeBuF5PYK/
Although we're likely still 2-3 years away from the current cycle's upcoming minimum, we've already been in recent months at quiet enough sunspot averages to be fairly close to a more typical minimum! Over the last 30 days alone, there have been 23 spotless days. With the current spotlessness as well as predictions for continued quiet, March could very well end up with only 4 non-spotless days and a monthly average sunspot number of only 2! Getting a monthly of only 2 that is still 2-3 years from the cycle's minimum would say we're clearly in a Grand Minimum the likes of which hasn't been seen in at least close to 200 years, the time of the Dalton Minimum. Exciting times!
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yep, so far, we have had more spotless days than not, and if it stay spotless and sunspot activity continues to lessen, it could very well become a higher percentage. Maybe we will have well over 90% days next year spotless at the rate we are going. Moreover, I wonder if any studies are going to be conducted during the minimum assuming it happens and it's impacts on the world as a whole.
MichaelJ
Member
So far 2018 has had 51 spotless days, almost exactly half of last years total (104)
April 1-8 were spotless with very low solar flux. We still appear to be headed to a deep minimum. However, I see what looks like a new group of small spots that just popped up fairly far south.
Meanwhile, I've been reading about some new research related to the recent sunspot drop /expected upcoming grand minimum that suggests cooling is likely soon in the mid latitudes. I'm not saying I'm necessarily believing these since I'm always worried about bias. Rather, I'm putting these out here to try to generate discussion knowing that the science behind GW is far from settled:
1.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-22854-0
"Solar cyclic variability can modulate winter Arctic climate"
The above suggests that the -AO tends to get stronger during quiet sunspot winters. IF that is true, the overall chances for cold winters in the mid latitudes of the world will increase as we go into the grand solar minimum even as the Arctic may warm further.
2. https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.01302
The above chart, which is based on cosmic rays (CRs) hitting Earth, suggests we're just coming out of a 100-200 year period of high sunspot activity not seen in several thousand years. IF true, that may support the idea that a significant component of recent GW has been due to indirect effects of the sun, including reduced amounts of CRs reaching Earth, which has been theorized to reduce cloud cover, which may have helped lead to a warming globe. With an expected grand minimum starting, CRs are now rising and will continue to rise. This will lead to increased cooling cloud cover per the CR theory. In order for this theory of cooling to work, I believe that a multiyear lag has to be in play since the high solar activity ended 13+ years ago.
*Edited due to typo. CRs are increasing and are expected to continue to increase.
Meanwhile, I've been reading about some new research related to the recent sunspot drop /expected upcoming grand minimum that suggests cooling is likely soon in the mid latitudes. I'm not saying I'm necessarily believing these since I'm always worried about bias. Rather, I'm putting these out here to try to generate discussion knowing that the science behind GW is far from settled:
1.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-22854-0
"Solar cyclic variability can modulate winter Arctic climate"
The above suggests that the -AO tends to get stronger during quiet sunspot winters. IF that is true, the overall chances for cold winters in the mid latitudes of the world will increase as we go into the grand solar minimum even as the Arctic may warm further.
2. https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.01302
The above chart, which is based on cosmic rays (CRs) hitting Earth, suggests we're just coming out of a 100-200 year period of high sunspot activity not seen in several thousand years. IF true, that may support the idea that a significant component of recent GW has been due to indirect effects of the sun, including reduced amounts of CRs reaching Earth, which has been theorized to reduce cloud cover, which may have helped lead to a warming globe. With an expected grand minimum starting, CRs are now rising and will continue to rise. This will lead to increased cooling cloud cover per the CR theory. In order for this theory of cooling to work, I believe that a multiyear lag has to be in play since the high solar activity ended 13+ years ago.
*Edited due to typo. CRs are increasing and are expected to continue to increase.
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pcbjr
Member
Very humbly ...
I wish I had just 1/10th of the grey matter you possess ...
Thanks, Phil. I don't know about the grey matter; but I just have so much passion about this once in 200+ year grand minimum, especially because of the unknowns as far as how much global cooling, if any of significance, this will ultimately lead to. We have a front row seat to watch and learn.
Meanwhile, per the Solarham site, that very short-lived area of 2 tiny sunspots pretty far south didn't last long enough to be counted thus making it 10+ spotless days though it did count at SIDC. I just took a look at the prior cycle, which itself had been the quietest in ~100 years, and we're running significantly quieter at the same declining stage with about 60 of the last 100 days being spotless! So, we appear to continue to head toward a grand minimum which should at least be about as quiet as the Dalton Min of ~200 years ago. Keep in mind that we could easily still be 2 or so years from this upcoming cycle minimum and look how quiet it already is! It already has gotten about as quiet as, if not quieter than, the cycle min for several of the more active cycles (especially those of the mid to late 20th century). If we were already near cycle min, the current quiet wouldn't be a big deal. But because we're likely still ~2 years from next cycle min, it is a big deal.
Here's a very interesting article related to the above mentioned short lived area of 2 tiny spots that didn't get even get counted per the Solarham site and that I noted was "pretty far south":
http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/~tohban/wiki/index.php/A_Sunspot_from_Cycle_25_for_sure
Per this article, Cycle 25 has begun with that area, which had reversed polarity from what would have been expected from a Cycle 24 sunspot. Note also that I had said it was "pretty far south". That's because all of the recent spots were much closer to the equator. That one was in fact near 31S, which is near the latitude where the first spots of a new cycle typically appear.
However, even IF this really is the start of Cycle 25, Cycle 24 has not ended as there is always overlap. Also, that doesn't mean the cycle minimum has arrived yet. As I had been saying, my feeling was that we were probably about 2 years or so from minimum and that it would be weak enough to be classified as (part of) a grand minimum. I'm not backing away from this at least yet. But IF we're already near minimum, then this would mean an epic bust for me as well as for many others including many very knowledgeable astrophysicists! It would mean Cycle 24 as measured from minimum to minimum would turn out to be a relatively short cycle of only 9.5-10 years.
Typically, short cycles are strong, not weak like Cycle 24 has been. For this reason amongst others, I remain skeptical that we're already near a minimum. Perhaps this very weak and far south area was a very strange anomaly? Keep in mind that this short-lived area of tiny spots would have been very difficult to see in the 1800s, when we had the last grand minimum (Dalton).
What if we really are already nearing the minimum....say by no later than early 2019? That would likely mean no grand minimum with this cycle minimum, a very surprising development. We'll see.
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dsaur
Member
Larry, I would have thought volcanism would play a role in cooling in conjunction with a minimum. Have you looked to see what eruptions were taking place? Somehow I don't think things happen in singles, but rather a conjunction of effects would bring about Maunder type cooling. Get a minimum and throw in a Pinatubo, or Krakatoa, and there is something for the minimum to act upon. So if Katla goes off on a big one in within a year, I could see the start of a little ice age
This is one of the guys I follow on the economic side, but he runs his model on everything from economics to politics to disease to climate and the sun. I thought this was an interesting blog post to share:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/...ttom-with-the-economic-confidence-model-2020/
Solar Cycle 24 to Bottom with the Economic Confidence Model 2020
"The deep minimum of Solar Cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change has been interesting. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the Solar Cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had a notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity is so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. The Solar Cycle 23 began during April 1996 and had its peak in early 2000/2001. The decline phase thereafter extended from 2002 until December 2009. That was the longest decline phase of any of the previous 23 solar cycles. The overall length of solar cycle 23 extended for a period of 13.5 years from April 1996. As shown on this chart, notice that each cycle has been declining in intensity. Solar Cycle 23 was sharply weaker and what has come in Solar Cycle 24 is even weaker still......."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/...ttom-with-the-economic-confidence-model-2020/
Solar Cycle 24 to Bottom with the Economic Confidence Model 2020
"The deep minimum of Solar Cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change has been interesting. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the Solar Cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had a notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity is so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. The Solar Cycle 23 began during April 1996 and had its peak in early 2000/2001. The decline phase thereafter extended from 2002 until December 2009. That was the longest decline phase of any of the previous 23 solar cycles. The overall length of solar cycle 23 extended for a period of 13.5 years from April 1996. As shown on this chart, notice that each cycle has been declining in intensity. Solar Cycle 23 was sharply weaker and what has come in Solar Cycle 24 is even weaker still......."
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There have been innumerable studies on the impacts of solar activity on the climate and a majority of the reputable ones come to the conclusion its influence isn't that significant, at least compared to what some here are suggesting and/or blindly hoping for. I've heard these solar activity-climate arguments over and over again since at least 2010 and few, if any of them have actually to come fruition. The impact this solar cycle will have on the climate is a drop in the bucket compared to the cumulative radiative forcing provided by man-made greenhouse gases, there will be some effect esp on large-scale climate variability like ENSO (may see more El Ninos and longer lived ENSO events (like we saw in the 19th and early 20th centuries)) which would actually act to warm the climate in spite of the reduced solar irradiance.) but the globe will likely continue warming unless other major natural climate drivers enter the fray.
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yeah, if AGW is 'voodoo', solar cycles affecting climate is doodoo.
Larry, I would have thought volcanism would play a role in cooling in conjunction with a minimum. Have you looked to see what eruptions were taking place? Somehow I don't think things happen in singles, but rather a conjunction of effects would bring about Maunder type cooling. Get a minimum and throw in a Pinatubo, or Krakatoa, and there is something for the minimum to act upon. So if Katla goes off on a big one in within a year, I could see the start of a little ice age
Well Tony, you may be onto something. Check out this that I just found from 2003: "Possible Correlation Between Solar and Volcanic Activity in a Long-Term Scale" found here: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/2003ESASP.535..393S
The key is longterm time scale. This says that there is no correlation with individual 11 year cycles. However, the implication is that there is a negative correlation with Grand Solar Maxima and Minima as per figures 2 and 3 found here:
http://adsbit.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/n...=1&data_type=GIF&type=SCREEN_VIEW&classic=YES
Per these tables, there was a significant uptick in volcanic activity during both the Maunder and Dalton minima. So, perhaps any possible significant cooling associated with grand minima would be due largely to increased volcanic activity rather than the indirect effects of increased cosmic rays reaching our atmosphere?? Maybe both? For these and other reasons, I remain open-minded about the possible correlation between grand solar minima and global cooling.
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2017 ended up with about 100 spotless days, meaning near the low end of the prediction above made in June of 2017. As one can see, I also predicted "over 1/2 of 2018 days to be spotless." As of now, I'd say that has an excellent chance of verifying. Today makes it a whopping 20 days in a row of spotless, easily the longest of this part of the cycle, and about 100 spotless days out of 197 days so far in 2018. So, it is already at just over 1/2 the days and I'd expect this % to only increase as we get later in 2018. There are 168 days left in this year. It is quite possible we'll end up with 200+ for 2018. That would require 60% of the remaining days to be spotless, but I think that is doable. By the way, the current 20 day long spotless streak has no clearcut end in sight as the Stereo images from the other side are very quiet looking.
In summary, the unusually far from the equator spot set mentioned in my April 11 and 13th posts not withstanding, I'm holding onto the idea that we're headed for a Grand Minimum/quietest minimum at least since the Dalton Minimum of ~200 years ago.
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dsaur
Member
Well, Larry, cause and effect seem to rarely be traced to one cause, at least over time, when it's the weather machine we are talking about. Vulcanism seems obvious as one factor that can effect the whole earth, and there aren't many that are earth based. Fresh water into the haline would be another we will be talking about with the next major minima, I expect. Pile those three together, and I might get my ice age, thought I expect I'll have to be dead sledding, lol. Thanks for the links!
pcbjr
Member
Big "Like" with one exception ... you'll be raising cane, whoopin' and hollerin' on that sled ...