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Learning Global Warming facts and fiction

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Look, I'm one of those guys who has a citizens band radio in case my cell doesn't work. Its great to have options like gas/battery for vehicles. Solar, nuclear, coal for energy. A vehicle that can operate on both charge and petroleum is good. During the recent CA outages folks couldn't charge their cars. In some instances here in NC during 'canes people couldn't purchase gas. Options are great. Don't allow the government to dictate one or the other.
 
Just getting started. First we got Cali getting blow torched and now more flooding and a crazy cold snap in the US.

https://www.livescience.com/venice-flooding-2019.html


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To be fair, their city is sinking, unlike most of the rest of the world. It says it right there in the article. Venice wasn't a very good place to build a city anyway, but nobody knew that hundreds of years ago. California gets torched often with fires anyway from their poor infrastructure with the power line-caused fires.
 
To be fair, their city is sinking, unlike most of the rest of the world. It says it right there in the article. Venice wasn't a very good place to build a city anyway, but nobody knew that hundreds of years ago. California gets torched often with fires anyway from their poor infrastructure with the power line-caused fires.

Yeah and AGW is finding these weaknesses and it’s not pretty.


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Yeah and AGW is finding these weaknesses and it’s not pretty.


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Since you brought it up much earlier about how Greenland was melting, go check the current ice mass gain/loss and you will be able to calm down a little and realize maybe we aren't all dying by flood in 11 years
 
Since you brought it up much earlier about how Greenland was melting, go check the current ice mass gain/loss and you will be able to calm down a little and realize maybe we aren't all dying by flood in 11 years
According to the statement released by NSIDC, the melt this year was attributed to the number of "cloud-free" days and not from temperature, as it was in 2012.
 
Since you brought it up much earlier about how Greenland was melting, go check the current ice mass gain/loss and you will be able to calm down a little and realize maybe we aren't all dying by flood in 11 years

Melt season is over .


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According to the statement released by NSIDC, the melt this year was attributed to the number of "cloud-free" days and not from temperature, as it was in 2012.

Hmmmm could it be from all the added ridging from it being warmer?


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Hmmmm could it be from all the added ridging from it being warmer?


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It was the -NAO ridging this summer which suppressed cloud cover and precipitation over Greenland thus causing a negative mass balance. Again, temps were not the driver.
 
The Arctic warmed back up a lot: it is now a whopping 20 F warmer than normal!

1574304160228.png
 
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Not unusual, it is now headed back down sharply again. We will see fluctuations like these quite often

Hopefully, you’re right but in the meantime it is still up at 15 warmer than normal vs the 20 warmer the prior day. The Arctic has been averaging strongly warmer than normal for a good number of years outside of late spring and summer. This shouldn’t be downplayed although I’m hoping for a cooler turnaround at some point.
Currently there is a -AO, which should favor warmth. Let’s see what happens when we get the next +AO, which should be in early Dec per GEFS. Related to this, 2 meter temps are forecasted to fall within a week per model consensus from the current strongly warmer than average.
 
Hopefully, you’re right but in the meantime it is still up at 15 warmer than normal vs the 20 warmer the prior day. The Arctic has been averaging strongly warmer than normal for a good number of years outside of late spring and summer. This shouldn’t be downplayed although I’m hoping for a cooler turnaround at some point.
Currently there is a -AO, which should favor warmth. Let’s see what happens when we get the next +AO, which should be in early Dec per GEFS. Related to this, 2 meter temps are forecasted to fall within a week per model consensus from the current strongly warmer than average.

With the jet stream being highly amplified these days there will be plenty of warm air intrusions into the arctic which should keep the PV in a weakened state.


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Why keep downplaying everything?


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We are currently in a warm AMO, which is the cause of the melting over the past 20 years or so, but once it changes to a cold AMO, the ice will thicken again. Go look for a graph of the corelation between the phases of the AMO and the Arctic ice melt and tell me what you find. A temperature departure of -35 in the winter to -25 (ten degrees above normal which it has not actually happened on a smoothed graph) will have very little effect on ice changing. However warm water coming into the arctic (caused by the warm AMO) eroding the ice from beneath is the real culprit. The summer melt season temperatures have consistently been at, slightly above or slightly below freezing or close to normal and this is when the actual melting occurs. If the temps are the same in the melt season as previously and the ice is decreasing in area and extent, why is that? You want to blame everything on CO2 increasing yet there is very little difference in temperature over the melt seasons. Obviously there are other factors much more such as warmer water, unusual pressure patterns, green algae, strong winds etc.

As for Greenland, the press made a big deal of an 11 billion ton ice melt in just one day in July of 2018 but don't even mention that in November there was a 12 billion ton ice mass increase in just one day. Over the past 40 years, the average per year loss of ice has averaged 103 billion tons per year. Sounds awful doesn't it? So let us assume that continues at a 110 billion per year rate and ask how long would it take to erase HALF (not all) of the ice sheet on Greenland? It would take approximately 12,500 years to do this. Moral of the story is there is little danger Miami, Philly, New York etc... are going to be under water anytime soon.
 
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We are currently in a warm AMO, which is the cause of the melting over the past 20 years or so, but once it changes to a cold AMO, the ice will thicken again. Go look for a graph of the corelation between the phases of the AMO and the Arctic ice melt and tell me what you find. A temperature departure of -35 in the winter to -25 (ten degrees above normal which it has not actually happened on a smoothed graph) will have very little effect on ice changing. However warm water coming into the arctic (caused by the warm AMO) eroding the ice from beneath is the real culprit. The summer melt season temperatures have consistently been at, slightly above or slightly below freezing or close to normal and this is when the actual melting occurs. If the temps are the same in the melt season as previously and the ice is decreasing in area and extent, why is that? You want to blame everything on CO2 increasing yet there is very little difference in temperature over the melt seasons. Obviously there are other factors much more such as warmer water, unusual pressure patterns, green algae, strong winds etc.

As for Greenland, the press made a big deal of an 11 billion ton ice melt in just one day in July of 2018 but don't even mention that in November there was a 12 billion ton ice mass increase in just one day. Over the past 40 years, the average per year loss of ice has averaged 103 billion tons per year. Sounds awful doesn't it? So let us assume that continues at a 110 billion per year rate and ask how long would it take to erase HALF (not all) of the ice sheet on Greenland? It would take approximately 12,500 years to do this. Moral of the story is there is little danger Miami, Philly, New York etc... are going to be under water anytime soon.

I hope your right. I got a feeling that once the summer sea ice is gone the Arctic ocean is going to heat up quick and Greenland will be getting hammered from all sides.


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I hope your right. I got a feeling that once the summer sea ice is gone the Arctic ocean is going to heat up quick and Greenland will be getting hammered from all sides.


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Well one thing for sure is we will know if I am right in about 10 years or so as the AMO will likely flip in 2022 and there is a 5-7 year lag in ocean temperature change of any significance. As I have said many times on here, I DO think mankind has an effect on temperature increases but mainly due to UHI and land use changes more than increased co2 levels. As Webb says, the base state is unquestionalbly higher than 40-50 years ago and most people acknowledge that, but as they say the devil is always is in the details
 
Here is a good overlay of the differing phases of the AMO and arctic ice melt.

1574488981627.png

While corelation does not always equal causation, this is an amazingly close comparison
 
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