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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

Snowfan

Snowfan

When NW trend?
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The GFS has been consistently showing possible tropical or subtropical development near the Bahamas.
 
Happy hour seems to be a bit more enthusiastic about a subtropical system. The GFS's successor? Not excited at all. Looks like we should get a good model comparison this year having both the FV3 and the GFS easily comparable.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_24.png

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png
 
And so it begins:

1. A large area of showers and thunderstorms near the Bahamas is
associated with an upper-level low pressure system and a surface
trough. The system is forecast to move westward over the Florida
peninsula on Saturday with no significant development. Locally
heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over portions of the
Bahamas and southern Florida through this weekend. Please monitor
products from your local weather office for more details. No
additional Special Outlooks on this system will be issued unless
conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
 
I'd bet heavily on the under on a LA hurricane hit near 5/23 and feel very safe about it. I'd almost feel safe betting the farm.

However, as we get into late May/June, it is worth a mention that Gulf TC activity tends to be more active than normal in oncoming El Nino seasons (just in case we have El Nino coming). Then, after June, it tends to become less active than normal in oncoming El Nino seasons.
 
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ForsythSnow said:
Looks like the odds are increasing on the main GFS but the FV3 has this much stronger storm and it does make landfall too around Pensacola that run. May have our first legitimate threat.
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png
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A cat 2 in the E GOM on 5/19 with a H hit on Pensacola on 5/21 on this FV3 run. I'll take the under again with high confidence though not quite as high confidence as I had going against the GFS run of yesterday hitting LA with a H on 5/23 because the E GOM would be favored over the W GOM should something freaky like this occur this early.
 
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The crazy 12Z FV3 has a cat 2 H in the E GOM that strengthens to 970 mb and then goes onshore and moves to about 75 miles SSE of Phil, just SE of Ocala, at hour 300 during the evening of 5/20. So, nothing to see here, folks.
 
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GaWx said:
The crazy 12Z FV3 has a cat 2 H in the E GOM that strengthens to 970 mb and then goes onshore and moves to about 75 miles SSE of Phil, just SE of Ocala, at hour 300 during the evening of 5/20. So, nothing to see here, folks.
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Well, we can get a good trial run on the FV3 here. Unfortunately, the GFS didn't do bad with sniffing stuff out in the LR last year, but was a bit dramatic at times. The Euro suppressed several big storms and completely missed major development in many. As for the run today, that's just another one showing an E Gulf impact.
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png
 
GFS and related GFS models sure raising eyebrows in the long range...

not exactly buying a hurricane but hmmmm
 
GFS is showing signs of something in the Gulf out beyond 300 hours, very far out, but we'll see what happens

One run today has gone towards Louisiana the 0z goes towards Northern Mexico
 
Gfs still showing a Tropical feature for a few runs now
 
# of W Caribbean/GOM geneses on record 1851-2017: mid-June climo much more active vs May and most active of any through 8/31

May 1-10: 2
May 11-20: 4
May 21-31: 5
June 1-10: 16
June 11-20: 26
June 21-30: 25
July 1-10: 13
July 11-20: 8
July 21-31: 18
Aug 1-10: 23
Aug 11-20: 25
Aug 21-31: 22

So, in mid June, alone, there have been 26 geneses in 167 years or one every 6-7 years averaged out in a fairly small area/over 5 times the rate of late May. That's a steep enough ramp up and high enough ratio to take seriously if there were to be model consensus for genesis there once we get within 10 days. But we're obviously not to that point yet.
 
Only my luck. Im going on a carribbean cruise june 11 and gfs is hell bent on bring a tropical system in the same time frame
 
It has differed in strength and direction of travel, but Goofy has been consistent about it occurring, much like it did with Alberto. I like trop storms coming up by me, as it keeps the summer cool.....as long as they stay weak, lol. Picked up another 5/8's over night and this morning. I'm up to 8 3/4's since mid May, so any trop moisture will only add to my accumulating water wealth, and I'm very receptive to it :) Showers everyday in summer remind me of my youth, when it seemed normal ....drought reminds me of my old age, and I've seen way too much drought since the early 80's! I like the return to the standard of my youth.
 
After holding onto a genesis date of 6/10 on about every run for several days, the GFS genesis date has finally started to slip. Also, the last several GEFS since 18Z have looked a bit less impressive. The GFS suite may be saying it is about to give up on this one, but there's still 6 days til 6/10. Note that the Euro/EPS still has essentially nothing.
 
The 12Z GEFS is strongly hinting at giving up the ghost as it has the least of any recent GEFS run on 6/10. Also, the 12Z GFS has nothing of note throughout the run.

Even JB is doubting genesis anytime soon.

Edit: Similar to recent Euro runs, today's 12Z Euro has nothing.
 
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GaWx said:
The 12Z GEFS is strongly hinting at giving up the ghost as it has the least of any recent GEFS run on 6/10. Also, the 12Z GFS has nothing of note throughout the run.

Even JB is doubting genesis anytime soon.

Edit: Similar to recent Euro runs, today's 12Z Euro has nothing.
Click to expand...
With the potential cold fronts stalling off of the SE coast or in the gulf I wouldn't be shocked to see something try to spin up but the low dewpoints behind the fronts may keep genesis at bay

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Gulf system little stronger 6z gfs this morning
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png
0z gfs is back with the storm. Worth watching
 
0z gfs/CMC has a pretty strong storm in the gulf
 
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