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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

Snowfan

Snowfan

El Nina stinks
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The GFS has been consistently showing possible tropical or subtropical development near the Bahamas.
 
Happy hour seems to be a bit more enthusiastic about a subtropical system. The GFS's successor? Not excited at all. Looks like we should get a good model comparison this year having both the FV3 and the GFS easily comparable.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_24.png

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png
 
And so it begins:

1. A large area of showers and thunderstorms near the Bahamas is
associated with an upper-level low pressure system and a surface
trough. The system is forecast to move westward over the Florida
peninsula on Saturday with no significant development. Locally
heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over portions of the
Bahamas and southern Florida through this weekend. Please monitor
products from your local weather office for more details. No
additional Special Outlooks on this system will be issued unless
conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
 
I'd bet heavily on the under on a LA hurricane hit near 5/23 and feel very safe about it. I'd almost feel safe betting the farm.

However, as we get into late May/June, it is worth a mention that Gulf TC activity tends to be more active than normal in oncoming El Nino seasons (just in case we have El Nino coming). Then, after June, it tends to become less active than normal in oncoming El Nino seasons.
 
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ForsythSnow said:
Looks like the odds are increasing on the main GFS but the FV3 has this much stronger storm and it does make landfall too around Pensacola that run. May have our first legitimate threat.
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png
Click to expand...

A cat 2 in the E GOM on 5/19 with a H hit on Pensacola on 5/21 on this FV3 run. I'll take the under again with high confidence though not quite as high confidence as I had going against the GFS run of yesterday hitting LA with a H on 5/23 because the E GOM would be favored over the W GOM should something freaky like this occur this early.
 
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The crazy 12Z FV3 has a cat 2 H in the E GOM that strengthens to 970 mb and then goes onshore and moves to about 75 miles SSE of Phil, just SE of Ocala, at hour 300 during the evening of 5/20. So, nothing to see here, folks.
 
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GaWx said:
The crazy 12Z FV3 has a cat 2 H in the E GOM that strengthens to 970 mb and then goes onshore and moves to about 75 miles SSE of Phil, just SE of Ocala, at hour 300 during the evening of 5/20. So, nothing to see here, folks.
Click to expand...
Well, we can get a good trial run on the FV3 here. Unfortunately, the GFS didn't do bad with sniffing stuff out in the LR last year, but was a bit dramatic at times. The Euro suppressed several big storms and completely missed major development in many. As for the run today, that's just another one showing an E Gulf impact.
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png
 
GFS and related GFS models sure raising eyebrows in the long range...

not exactly buying a hurricane but hmmmm
 
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