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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

CMC
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GFS
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Who wins this battle? I say they're both losers lol
 
^ Keep in mind that the CMC often develops TC's strongly in the face of unfavorable levels of shear. It just seems to ignore it. This may be a good example, especially for 92L.
 
SD said:
Id watch the front moving offshore this week for development either in the NE gulf or off of the FL coast. 92l might be part of the genesis.

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If look at the vote map it looks like energy from Harvey loops through the northern gulf coast states and into the northern gulf and is part of the development the 06z gfs had


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Storm5 said:
If look at the vote map it looks like energy from Harvey loops through the northern gulf coast states and into the northern gulf and is part of the development the 06z gfs had


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Must everything be political? Vote map??

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The euro is a major buzzkill in the Atlantic the next 10 days, even kills Harvey and keeps it from redeveloping... If it verified definitely might be time to be concerned about the verification of the recent slew of hurricane season forecasts from NOAA, TWC, etc. because a large scale suppressed mjo wave is going to engulf the Atlantic basin no later than the 2nd week of September. Thus, conditions likely won't become much more favorable than they are now for TCG and intensification in the basin through most, if not all of September
 
Webberweather53 said:
The euro is a major buzzkill in the Atlantic the next 10 days, even kills Harvey and keeps it from redeveloping... If it verified definitely might be time to be concerned about the verification of the recent slew of hurricane season forecasts from NOAA, TWC, etc. because a large scale suppressed mjo wave is going to engulf the Atlantic basin no later than the 2nd week of September. Thus, conditions likely won't become much more favorable than they are now for TCG and intensification in the basin through most, if not all of September
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This never was the year and we're all the better for it!
 
pcbjr said:
This never was the year and we're all the better for it!
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It's definitely way too early to celebrate haha because the last several seasons with exception to 2013 were particularly active in October with at least one category 4-5 hurricane developing in 2016 (Matthew), 2015 (Joaquin), 2014 (Gonzalo), 2011 (Ophelia) & of course Sandy (2012) is another very honorable mention. Point being this season is far from over and if the recent string of active Octobers persists and we extrapolate intraseasonal forcing... things could get interesting yet again. We'll see what happens...
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's definitely way too early to celebrate haha because the last several seasons with exception to 2013 were particularly active in October with at least one category 4-5 hurricane developing in 2016 (Matthew), 2015 (Joaquin), 2014 (Gonzalo), 2011 (Ophelia) & of course Sandy (2012) is another very honorable mention. Point being this season is far from over and if the recent string of active Octobers persists and we extrapolate intraseasonal forcing... things could get interesting yet again. We'll see what happens...
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They could get interseting, and I would not be surprised (remember Kate?) - but right now, it's not a worry (which is a good thing in later August, 2 weeks from Labor Day, in FL) ... Just sayin'
Plus, the whole set up has generally screamed "No" so far - sure we've had spinners, but the setup just hasn't been and doesn't yet (yet) look conducive.
Believe me, Webb, I'd hate to be shown wrong on this one ...
We'll see ... ;)

Need to add -
I have 2 big oaks that still need to come down (laurels that the May drought devastated) and one live oak that needs pruning - that's another $5K ... it would be nice to wait until January when the tree service is hungry rather than now, if you catch the econ - A 'Cane would take them down, just in the wrong place ... :(
And this city - taking a tree down is harder than taking a 100 year old statue down ... Permits, permits, permits and then paying to replant elsewhere ...
 
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Omgd " a gift for long range forecasting " . Hahahah this guy , he has to be related to JB
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