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Misc General Banter Thread

RollTide18 said:
To me an Ice Storm is the cold equivalent to a Hurricane but in someways worse because no power in 70-80 degree temps is manageable but freezing temps with no power, especially if you don’t have gas is…oof
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NWS needs to chill out putting out 0% predictions for the deep south
 
All I know is if I can't get 4 inches of snow from this set up, it's just never going to happen. I'll start chasing to NY.

Let's go! Before it changes!

1768943098460.png
 
Too early to make hard and fast predictions for ANYONE as the players are not all on the field yet. That said, I have a hunch this will not go much more South and may actually come North/West some until go time. How much will be critical for p-types in all areas except the mountains, and the two things to keep your eagle eyes on are 1. What does the Baja low do, come east with the system or lag behind to the west. 2. How strong will the parent High pressure be and where does it settle at at onset of precip. The High strength is over modeled by quite a bit IMO and will end up between 1035-38 (as this happens quite frequently from my experience).

^^^ As I mentioned yesterday, the two things to look for were the strength of the High and the amount of involvement of the Baja low. I just did not think the 1045-50 High would not decrease sharply and the Baja low would cause warming issues if it amps up the system too much. Looks to me the High was modeled too high (thus cold press CAD not as stout) and the Baja low would get involved. Sure it could change but the best models are now showing that and while it will be a notable wintry event, it will not be historic IMO. Hopefully areas in Ga, SC will have temps that cut down on the ZR. Best policy is to keep abreast of the developing system and be prepared

I feel this exact way and the EURO was hinting at it.
 
RollTide18 said:
To me an Ice Storm is the cold equivalent to a Hurricane but in someways worse because no power in 70-80 degree temps is manageable but freezing temps with no power, especially if you don’t have gas is…oof
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Im oppositte. Had 3 seperate week long expierments in winter. You keep your food/ have free ice on hand to do that with. No bugs, stiffeling humidty, No worries about AC which means you sweat while trying to sleep. You can always build a fire, throw on more clothes. Heck hang out in car to warm up. But cooling down , youre screwed
 
RollTide18 said:
To me an Ice Storm is the cold equivalent to a Hurricane but in someways worse because no power in 70-80 degree temps is manageable but freezing temps with no power, especially if you don’t have gas is…oof
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Yeah, but no mosquitoes. Been there, done that.
 
This is the time….. the next 4 cycles (24hrs) will tell the tale. This is where it picks its way to go and it goes jmo. If we’re gonna lose it or go for glory it’s done by Tomm evening imo. The most critical runs imo are the next 4 if we’re gonna get Screwed one way or another


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SnowmasterATL said:
Too early to make hard and fast predictions for ANYONE as the players are not all on the field yet. That said, I have a hunch this will not go much more South and may actually come North/West some until go time. How much will be critical for p-types in all areas except the mountains, and the two things to keep your eagle eyes on are 1. What does the Baja low do, come east with the system or lag behind to the west. 2. How strong will the parent High pressure be and where does it settle at at onset of precip. The High strength is over modeled by quite a bit IMO and will end up between 1035-38 (as this happens quite frequently from my experience).

^^^ As I mentioned yesterday, the two things to look for were the strength of the High and the amount of involvement of the Baja low. I just did not think the 1045-50 High would not decrease sharply and the Baja low would cause warming issues if it amps up the system too much. Looks to me the High was modeled too high (thus cold press CAD not as stout) and the Baja low would get involved. Sure it could change but the best models are now showing that and while it will be a notable wintry event, it will not be historic IMO. Hopefully areas in Ga, SC will have temps that cut down on the ZR. Best policy is to keep abreast of the developing system and be prepared

I feel this exact way and the EURO was hinting at it.
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I can't find a single piece of truth in that statement by @MichaelJ over on the threat page.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
This is the time….. the next 4 cycles (24hrs) will tell the tale. This is where it picks its way to go and it goes jmo. If we’re gonna lose it or go for glory it’s done by Tomm evening imo. The most critical runs imo are the next 4 if we’re gonna get Screwed one way or another


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Really, I'm just paying attention to the AIFS and the Weathernext (Google).

Interesting right now though the Google went warmer, AIFS is colder and gives us more snow. So a bit of a conflict right there, curious how it turns out. These models are so much better than even the NAM the last few storms I think.
 
SnowNiner said:
Really, I'm just paying attention to the AIFS and the Weathernext (Google).

Interesting right now though the Google went warmer, AIFS is colder and gives us more snow. So a bit of a conflict right there, curious how it turns out. These models are so much better than even the NAM the last few storms I think.
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Has WeatherNext put NC other than the VA/NC border counties and foothills in much of the snow zone? It's been pretty consistent on mega sleet/freezing rain for much of NC since days ago I think? Would be a major and singular win if it holding serve so far with that depiction ends up being the right one.
 
Okay ran the generator today. Filled the truck and car up with gas. Wife made a grocery run. Winterized the spigots and some pies. Picked up some propane to grill out. We got Jack Daniels, vodka and for Bloody Marys and Jack and Coke. We ready to roll! Probably rain now though.
 
blueheronNC said:
Has WeatherNext put NC other than the VA/NC border counties and foothills in much of the snow zone? It's been pretty consistent on mega sleet/freezing rain for much of NC since days ago I think? Would be a major and singular win if it holding serve so far with that depiction ends up being the right one.
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Overnight it had the 850 line (more or less snow line), just north of CLT. This afternoon it jumped up just north of 40. Hoping that goes back south....AIFS keeps it just south of CLT I believe.
 
fbed25c553ecd2afb19318495010d27d.jpg

Only thing we can ask of Canadian and ICON tonight I guess


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My local Home Depot was nearly cleared out of the little propane canisters

I might have bought a few. But there were probably 50 or so left.
Local QuikTrip bumped diesel up from 2.94 yesterday to 3.44 today, because reasons

There doesn't seem to be a run on gas at least in Athens that I'm able to see.

Lots of people at the Costco today, but no sense of panic
 


Didn’t realize there was anything “typical” about this setup given the strength of the arctic cold push and pineapple express moisture feed. We may see sleet ratios that will surprise in places that change over
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
you can tell it’s been a while since we’ve done this. There will surely be a lot of broken hearts once mesoscales models start deciphering thermals in a day or two
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I don't know, that can go both ways. Considering the huge arctic push, it could be colder then the globals show, underestimating the CAD.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
you can tell it’s been a while since we’ve done this. There will surely be a lot of broken hearts once mesoscales models start deciphering thermals in a day or two
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True, but in my local case if this goes bad it will be trees and power supply that will be broken not hearts.
 
Boooooooo ice. Of course the GFS was not believable being by itself but it was nice to see trends on other models going colder/snowier. Today's trend with the low interaction sucks. Still chance for that to hang back and we can pull for that but what a missed opportunity if we get stuck with all ice.
 
SnowNiner said:
I don't know, that can go both ways. Considering the huge arctic push, it could be colder then the globals show, underestimating the CAD.
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I think it will undoubtedly be colder than the globals are showing…warm nose will still hurt someone most likely, but I am thinking that’s south of I-20 at this time
 
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