• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc General Banter Thread

My forecast. Would LOVE this, even with a mix. Nice front end thump, then mix it. But I know this will certainly change to likely less snow.

1768936445297.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
🇨🇦 before Gulf Coast Blizzard

View attachment 186421
🇨🇦 todayView attachment 186422

same timestamp

And dealing with a lot of similar features 🍿
Click to expand...

Yep, for now I'm still inclined to believe that it's out to lunch. The way the thermals shifted today in the model I trust more in the Euro was a little alarming, but that was just so bad of a fail last year from ole' Canada.

Plus it's shifted south some now too and gives me ZR.
 
It's wild to think that anyone is giving credence to the CMC or Weathernext2 AI models with them running a weak SLP right into the heart of a 1040+ HP.....it just doesn't happen that way.
 
xshare said:
Problem is if it's just a standard winter storm, there's not a *ton* of prep you need to do. Charge some flashlights maybe? Get your snow gear? It's the possibility in Atlanta of a week-long power outage that really trips me up and makes me feel like I have to uber-prep.... and make sure others are aware that's a possibility.
Click to expand...
Problem is that the warmer / more amped solutions are what would cause this to be disastrous / historically damaging in central NC. This won't warm up all the way to cold rain up this way.
 
Rain Cold said:
BAM bashing earlier in shambles.
Click to expand...
1768937249819.png
This was his preliminary map from this morning. Furthest north snow line in blue, heaviest snow axis in purple, furthest north ice can get in red and heaviest ice acretion in green. What in the heck am I looking at? Does this guy know how CAD works? Then goes ahead and uses the GDPS parallel model as his basis.... LMAO
 
Surprised N Ms, areas of N Al…etc is not in the major impact areas, at least 5%. All that freezing rain and sleet showing up seems like it would at least put us in the 5% range. 🤷🏼‍♂️
 

Attachments

  • IMG_1921.png
    IMG_1921.png
    1.5 MB · Views: 65
LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 186432
This was his preliminary map from this morning. Furthest north snow line in blue, heaviest snow axis in purple, furthest north ice can get in red and heaviest ice acretion in green. What in the heck am I looking at? Does this guy know how CAD works? Then goes ahead and uses the GDPS parallel model as his basis.... LMAO
Click to expand...
You couldn’t draw a worse map if you tried.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
You know you're gonna be the snow winner on the board, I see that big ole grin 😁 lol
Click to expand...
Straight Face Trying Not To Laugh GIF
 
My only (weenie?) take on this is that I will say that after so many storms we are often say, wow, that CAD held longer/was stronger than modeled. Usually CMC is better with that, at least back in the day, but it seems weird this time?
Thoughts on this?
 
Usmeagle2005 said:
Surprised N Ms, areas of N Al…etc is not in the major impact areas, at least 5%. All that freezing rain and sleet showing up seems like it would at least put us in the 5% range. 🤷🏼‍♂️
Click to expand...
I’m confused at this graphic. Not even a 5% in Atlanta? Are they looking at the same models as us? lol
 
This was last Fridays Euro for how much precip we would get last weekend,

1000005866.png

I picked up almost 2" just SE of Raleigh. Models have come a long way but still lots we dont know.
 
Thor said:
This was last Fridays Euro for how much precip we would get last weekend,

View attachment 186450

I picked up almost 2" just SE of Raleigh. Models have come a long way but still lots we dont know.
Click to expand...
Yea not sure where the idea that AI models are infallible is coming from, they whiffed pretty big on qpf last week inside 72hrs
 
DopplerWx said:
Yea not sure where the idea that AI models are infallible is coming from, they whiffed pretty big on qpf last week inside 72hrs
Click to expand...
AI models are a tool in the toolbox....but they have proven to suck just as bad as others at certain things. I don't think there is a single model that should be preferred over another with the handling of the Baja low interaction with the northern stream....its going to become a lot more clear in the next 36 hours, but it will still become a nowcasting event with that feature out west before we have anything set in stone.
 
NWG_WX14 said:
I could be alone in this thought but I think we have pretty amazing model agreement at this juncture.
Click to expand...
In regards to significant winter impacts, I completely agree.

I'm probably gonna regret saying this but this is as good as you can hope for model agreement this close to an event around here. Obviously it could go south quick (and I get the doom and gloom mentality based on old scars), but this looks like a classic multi-day major event not seen in many years.
 
chapelhillwx said:
I mean we've got model progs calling for a borderline biblical event that either has never happened or almost never happens. I don't think 2" of ZR is going to happen just because it almost never does. This probably will walk back into something still significant but maybe less catastrophic. When have we ever had 2" of ZR in ATL with temps in the low 20s?

Sure we're dealing with an anomalously strong HP/cold press and lots of moisture, but wouldn't surprise me to see this change. Also lots of model runs til go time. Dont know why people are cliff diving because mega biblical event has changed to simply regular biblical.
Click to expand...
Great post! Indeed, 1” of ZR would be bad enough. That hasn’t happened at ATL since 2/12/2014 and that was only from Hartsfield S and mainly E. (That’s the one that killed the Eisenhower tree at Augusta National). Other than the terrible 1/1973 icestorm, the last I could find giving ATL 2”+ was the devastating ~2” icestorm of 12/28-29/1935. Temps did drop into the 20s for part of that and probably as cold as mid 20s for the coldest, similar to the 12Z Euro. I read ATL news articles on this 30 years ago at the downtown library. It was horrible.

So, essentially the 12Z Euro is calling for the worst combo of heaviest/very cold ZR in 90 years! Thus, you’re absolutely right to bet on it not being as bad as modeled based on history. But unfortunately there’s a small chance it could actually happen like 90 years ago.

Link:
 
2014 in CLT we had a tiddlywinks flizzard which got the ground white. The next 2 days we got the big show. Only time in CLT history with snowfall on 3 consecutive days.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top