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Misc General Banter Thread

packfan98 said:
Good jump NW with the AIFS and beefier totals too.
ecmwf-aifs-all-se-precip_24hr_inch-1768564800-1768780800-1768780800-20.gif
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We need the rain
 
Unless that is true cad the cold press orientation does not look right. At least in the classic fashion anyway.
 
HailCore said:
Not that its gonna do anything, but earlier this evening I took a penny and flipped it into the air, heads was this thing kept trending SE and probably turned into a dud for most of the board, and tails was that it would start ticking NW and by the time it hit would produce a widespread swath of 2-6 inches, and to my delight it landed
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I believe that's what some forecasters really do in situations like this.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
I think it's amazing how you're always so optimistic, despite getting burned over and over.
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A part of it is because I use to be default negative all the time then a few years back, I made some life changes & realized there was a better way to live. God is good for that!

BUT a big part of it is honestly because I talk weather on YouTube for a large area. When it comes to Winter weather & the South, it's a massive topic. So I have to sorta hype myself up for everyone else even when I am still missing most of the time. Over the years of doing that, I've actually managed to just get excited for everyone else without forcing myself too lmao. I'll get me an ole Feb 12th, 2010 again one day.
 
superjames1992 said:
I don’t really understand people arguing we should throw out the globals in favor of the 48-hr HRRR? HRRR isn’t a great model out towards the end of its run, IMO. Unless it’s improved a lot in recent years? I would still mostly favor globals at this timeframe.
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I admitted that I was picking nits lol.
 
WxDawgWx said:
Genuine question as someone who is trying to make sense of these models: is there a time frame where these short-range models are weighed more heavily in a forecast than the globals?
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Depends on the model. I value the HRRR even at hour 48 because it has a complex data assimilation system, so it is seeing different/more data than the globals. For NAM, I don’t put much value in it at any range. Globals (mainly ECMWF) still get solid weight in the short term for me. They don’t suddenly become less accurate in the short term, but you do have to understand the limitations tied to the lower resolution.
 
I think I’ll just set this one out, so I can rest up for the following weekend when we have a “chance” at a real winter storm! But good luck to all that have a chance to see some snow this weekend.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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