12z GEFS was a pretty nice jump NW. Grasping for straws here but it was noticeable. Someone with the weather bell graphics can post. Surprised it had not been posted yet.
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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Allan’s First Map is out
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Makes sense to me. I don’t expect to see much of anything accumulation wise in Carolinas, unless we pushed some heavier precip back towards the triad area and the western Piedmont/foothills. It’s just not cold enough east of there
Meanwhile, better access to cold air in GA is why they have at least a snowball’s chance in hell to see something. Down in GA, you’re closer to the surface high and the mountains aren’t blocking the initial cold push, unlike NC/SC. Also, the heavier precip moves thru in the morning down there, whereas it’s midday over NC. Just not doing anything right in the Carolinas
Would love to see the Euro and EPS continue to slowly tick NW here this run. Feels like a big run. Not sure if the I-85 crew can afford anymore southeast movements
accu35
Member
Yeah I just seen that. Actually looks little better
Makeitsnow
Member
Posted the wrong run but I didn't see much difference
packfan98
Moderator
HailCore
Member
As much as I want to hope, there is no way I can fully trust in that model after absolutely obliterating a 2-3 inch snowfall mean. However we will all end up right back in the same spot and I am surely going to be posting more GEFS data in a few days when we track the next system. Just need EPS and Euro support next time.
HailCore
Member
Do you still think an under-modeling of the NW shield of precip is on the table, or probably not?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There is always a risk of that in this kind of setup in the short-range. The synoptic changes in the northern stream (stronger and faster trailer trough) have kicked things east a bit and muted or even reversed the NW trend the last day or so
Thanks. The 12Z UKMET has a 2” max in far SW GA, which is quite a ways W of other model maxes in S GA. @accu35 you chasing if this were to verify? What about @deltadog03 , @GeorgiaGirl and others?
alright well, first call. i prefer not to make a second call but the weenie in me hopes tonight and tomorrow's models force it, ha.
thinking precip starts earlier than modeled and further NW than modeled, but limited in the foothills by downsloping. could create a small overlap of sufficient cold to produce a mix and potentially allow for spotty dustings. small dusting area near Aiken SC as well, closer to the south GA accumulations region. think there will be plenty of rain and barely mixing in many places. even in the darker blue zone, i would expect lots of wet ground reports.
out east, i wouldn't fully rule out flakes flying, but temps make me think no at the moment
thinking precip starts earlier than modeled and further NW than modeled, but limited in the foothills by downsloping. could create a small overlap of sufficient cold to produce a mix and potentially allow for spotty dustings. small dusting area near Aiken SC as well, closer to the south GA accumulations region. think there will be plenty of rain and barely mixing in many places. even in the darker blue zone, i would expect lots of wet ground reports.
out east, i wouldn't fully rule out flakes flying, but temps make me think no at the moment
packfan98
Moderator
Good jump NW with the AIFS and beefier totals too.
You can see the coastal starting to dominateGood jump NW with the AIFS and beefier totals too.
Euro AI precip jumped west, snow showing up for a few now as well. Very light amounts on NW side
going to be a better euro run for several
big jump for SC and NC
packfan98
Moderator
A lot more precip too. Might as well crank the coastal and get a deformation band...
packfan98
Moderator
I-85 Corridor only needs one more NW jog. Should be easy to do, right??
AI shifted 2-3 shades NW there. Happens every time. Just need to throw a little back
Typical coastal cutoff there. Tough sledding back west when that’s the key feature
the real question is how far it can push, we have to consider what the absolute most it can shift is
Bigedd09
Member
I’m sorry but I don’t think global and ensembles modes are the way to go at this point in the game
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The coastal keeps flirting with coming closer to shore as it moves NE. Canadian’s been the only one really honking the horn for this though with consistency. NAM has always had it *just* missing Long Island, and RRFS even backed away back SE on alignment on its last run.
Hoping any trend with that alignment can help downstream as well and get NE NC and Richmond a little more help (except Moyock, it can snow anywhere but there)
Hoping any trend with that alignment can help downstream as well and get NE NC and Richmond a little more help (except Moyock, it can snow anywhere but there)
Brandon10
Member
I am really beginning to wonder if east of I95 gets rain for 3 to 4 hours then the coastal develops a band and puts some heavy snow down ina quick time
ensembles are wonderful here. they are made specifically for the situation at hand. the tilting and positioning of the trof and the energy flying around it needs to be slightly adjusted to get an overall idea of what is the most likely outcome in a very finicky setup
yes, even the sref is useful here at 500
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The euro is finally getting the hint that moist isentropic upglide, warm advection, and favorable jet dynamics actually favor more expansive precip over NC
Duration of storm is definitely growing. 
Adjustments will need to be made with the intial overrunning precip, not the coastal development. Unless you’re in the eastern parts of the forum
I'm in atlanta
If we were praying for no more nw jogs 60hrs out we would be nervous wrecks. I think we see continued shifts. I think Mitch up to the Hartsville Florence area is in a good spot.
also what is the overrunning precip your referring too
He’s referring to the initial onset at 6z Sunday.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Should be a pretty expansive precip shield over the Carolinas into the southern mid Atlantic with strong QG forcing
oh yeah, I saw that on RRFS pretty clearly lol
Essentially, we have less than 48 hours to make a small change in the depth/orientation of the vorticity racing across the South when it is in this position. As unlikely as any meaningful changes are likely to occur this close in, if we can just tuck that tail in a little, we would see a surprising uptick for many.
how far north do you think that could push the shield