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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
packfan98
Moderator
Going down with the ship 
Mahomeless
Member
Unless its rate driven, that's a cold rain look.
at 45, intensity increases. nice run of the nam for those holding on
That NAM run is what has to happen for anything beyond flakes flying. Precip early enough and far enough west to get things started before heavier rates can take over and keep you (mostly) snowing
packfan98
Moderator
juicy
SE bleeding paused earlier and has reversed. Right on cue.Tough to undo NW expansion heading right into now casting ann event. If you want to see a snowflake this is your last shot at 
Definitely threading the needle to say the least on this run, but this looks like it should be a good run for the Triangle. Almost zero wiggle room either way, though.
Forget the surface depiction for a moment. See that little 'tail' trying to tuck under at the base of our trough? Just a smidge more of this, and Happy Hour would be jumping. The obituary might want to hold off for a bit longer for some.
midlands and charlotte should look okay on the snow maps this go
there were quite the changes at 500mb, this current depiction will change again
this setup is actually so finicky and why ensembles are still important here; yes, even the sref
there were quite the changes at 500mb, this current depiction will change again
this setup is actually so finicky and why ensembles are still important here; yes, even the sref
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
It's
Imo it's likely a cold rain unless this thing gets into GA, AL and MS where the best temps are. Maybe the far edge gets snow in a less amped scenerio? But CF stalling over the mountains isnt good for the carolinas. Normally overrunners only succeed with CAD and there just isnt one in this scenerio.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
AUG/CAE/CLT/RDU folks with a bone here. Is that a meso-low over Pickens county in SC?
Tsappfrog20
Member
Not that I believe this will happen but it’s a good look!!
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it showed up early in the run, probably noise; but would throw a fly in the ointment
Mahomeless
Member
It would have to happen, and happen 100+ miles to the west, to see any meaningful impact....but definitely something to hold on to if you're willing to suffer another 24 hours.
The ai models all showed the same strip of accums similar to this nam run up from cola towards RDU, something agreement possibly?
I might as well. We've been glued to every run for what, a week now? lol.
Here on the east side of Atlanta, unlike this latitude in Alabama, a minor shift is all I need.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Weathernext2 has also trended with the NW tick. Depending on how things go tonight the NW tick should continue. If you continue the NW tick the entire time (Which can and has happened before) you can get this thing well northwest.
Mahomeless
Member
Yes, it wouldn't take much for you to see something nice.
Showmeyourtds
Member
Just confirming- this circled area is what you're referring to when you say "tail", right? We're about out of straws to grasp.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
3k NAM isn't as pretty towards the south on accums:
But if the 12k worked as depicted, I believe it actually works, while it's not IMBY, I did get a sounding that is 34/33 nearby with heavier looking precip and while I'm not the greatest at determining sounding, that would be rate driven snow.
But if the 12k worked as depicted, I believe it actually works, while it's not IMBY, I did get a sounding that is 34/33 nearby with heavier looking precip and while I'm not the greatest at determining sounding, that would be rate driven snow.
i do think the verifying snow map will look something like this- a child's blanket that they've been dragging around since they were 2
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I can certainly buy some wet snow occurring back over the Triad/Greensboro area and along/NW of I-85 in central NC.
Low-level thermals are very questionable from the Triangle area and points east + south, even on the NAM
Low-level thermals are very questionable from the Triangle area and points east + south, even on the NAM
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Bigedd09
Member
What’s your thought on the Charlotte area? No precipitation?
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Yes. It's a meso feature that the NAM cooked and is the type of small feature that can show up at the last minute in a situation as close as this.
Showmeyourtds
Member
I figured as much- and agree-if that can wind up a smidge or 2, it would be a game changer.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Do you still personally think northeast georgia is in a good spot?
The 18z HRRR is in!
That’s in theory a fairly long duration event for C NC. In theory.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If you can get the precip there, it’s cold enough. Would be a shame if we wasted this setup in places like Atlanta
Idk man, we can hope. I said it before, weird that the NAM suite has the colder thermals, usually it's the other way around. If it was sniffing the warm nose, we'd know it would be right but snow, forget it
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Yeah, I think models are underdoing QPF rates and possibly even the vorts tilt, just don't really have a way to know for sure until closer to the event.
Genuine question as someone who is trying to make sense of these models: is there a time frame where these short-range models are weighed more heavily in a forecast than the globals?
Feel like we are going to sure waste it over here from Birmingham south and what a bummer. We will pray for some magically neutral to negative tilt or a very poor forecasted precip shield. That SREF was a nice footprint but we need NW trends from now until verification. Sure hope some of our southern counties can score if we can’t.
ducketta27
Member
Come on over and help us reel in a few flakes
Aiken is actually exactly where I’m going. Am concerned about temps, but we will see