Mahomeless
Member
You know if we were sitting in the bullseye right now, everyone would be worried about this thing tilting early and giving us a 40 degree rain, and that's EXACTLY what would happen....but we can't buy that trend here lately.
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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
You know if we were sitting in the bullseye right now, everyone would be worried about this thing tilting early and giving us a 40 degree rain, and that's EXACTLY what would happen....but we can't buy that trend here lately.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Unfortunately for everyone sitting in the bullseye a lot of them are getting too overexcited. Been there done that. But NW tick it probably going to happen I just don't know how much.
Still think we'll end as some snow here in the coastal counties. Anywhere from a line drawn due west of Myrtle Beach maybe not though. The cold air is going to be coming almost from the north chasing the moisture.
Bigedd09
Member
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Wasn’t it further west the last run? Seems like it’s correcting to other modeling. I expect 0z to be further southeast
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ducketta27
Member
Aiken/AGS are notorious for missing snow north (due to temps), and south due to precip... haven't had a happy medium since 2010. Don't like that this is another nightmare for us... but pretty reflective of what we go every time there is a nearby threat. Time will tell. Can't say I get disappointed anymore... happens too often. Still fun to track
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Really the problem for you down there isn't only that. Models often tend to underdo QPF on overrunners so you kinda get in that situation as well.
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What a tease here, lol. If you told a lot of us we’d have a look like this with 48-72 hours out then we’d take it 9 out of 10 times. Here’s hoping they found the goods in the plane yesterday
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Nah, this run works in NC just based on what I just saw. Good bump in totals from flakes to a dusting to 1-3".
The ICON definitely went backwards though.
RGEM solid hit for Carolinas and deep south
RGEM, NAM. SREF sucking me back in too. For eastern parts it's dependent on a longer duration event and column crashing, coastal development seems to be helping with that. Not sold yet but hopeful
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If only the RGEM wasn’t usually too cold.
Bigedd09
Member
Looks like for short range models it’s RGEM SREF and NAM vs HRRR and RAP . Not sure which one to take seriously lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
rburrel2
Member
hrr and rap aren't meant to be used out past 24hrs, for good reason.
Rgem same as ai and nam with that narrow strip of accums.
Bigedd09
Member
But I mean there’s absolutely nothing on them. And last I checked that house model that mets use don’t have much either
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Agreed but the NAM is still surprising to me, if it was just the RGEM yeah but the NAM is always a "no" on thermals but not this time. Anyway just don't rain on my glimmer of hope parade too much, please and thanks
rburrel2
Member
18z Icon with a 20-30 mile shift northwest with the initial finger band. Starting to think the very northwest edge of the shield will be where the best accumulations are.
Very concerned that band is going to wind up like 10 miles to my southeast though, lol.
Very concerned that band is going to wind up like 10 miles to my southeast though, lol.
i mean lol, not like it's on our doorstep, 36 hours to go. enough for some incremental improvements
NBAcentel
Member
Rgem starts the intial band of precipitation from CLT through GSO, also can see that’s the first area with colder 850s. Definitely something to be cautious about further east if any slowdowns with cold air occur 
rburrel2
Member
Low level dry air is clearly a problem on the rgem for the upstate, it has snow reaching the ground in the NC mountains, but nothing here bc the low level dry air is eating it all up. Hope that’s overdone and/or precip is heavier along that northern edge and can beat the dry air.
Upon further review… it’s downsloping winds off the mountains that’s hurting us. Sigh.
Upon further review… it’s downsloping winds off the mountains that’s hurting us. Sigh.
The 18z NAM and RGEM are pretty lockstep with that theoretical maximum in eastern Piedmont. Encouraging, especially considering the Canadian modeling has been a dumpster fire for us over the last day or two. I’m sure there are temperature issues that render the clown map moot, but I’ll enjoy the look.
Brandon10
Member
The short-range Canadian rgm looks very similar to the weathercast, and the 12 Z Euro snow output in northern and Northeastern North Carolina. These all seem to be hinging on coastal development whereas the Nam and GFS are relying on banding with a primary low IMO
I had raised the white flag on this event for folks around RDU but the latest RGEM and NAM runs have me rethinking that. I wouldn't bet the house on seeing any snow accumulation but I believe there is a more than zero chance now that something could happen.
That’s a pretty significant change for only being 1 day out on the GFS. Not sure if it will matter but don't think it will hurt 
That is probably the biggest shift in the past 36 hours. Wow.
NBAcentel
Member
GFS initialized with a stronger shortwave in Canada at hr 0, and yeah it’s trickling down this run 
HailCore
Member
Time is on our side. We are so back 
foothillscrewzone
Member
It inched NW barely
NBAcentel
Member
classic NW trend here with overrunning precip 
Another shift NW. 
Showmeyourtds
Member
Surface maps might look a little improved, but we still don't get the tilt we need in Georgia
this happens with basically every storm. 12 seed that's down by 12 with two minutes lefts gets scrappy and cuts the deficit to 5. my heuristic going forward is to use ai tools to formally gauge the "ceiling" of the storm's potential and then allow for about 10-20% improvement once consensus exist between all models like we got by about the 12z cycle today.