Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

[GaWx]

The models were largely too warm for this morning’s lows:

Actual lows
NC:
Charlotte 19
Asheville 15
RDU ~20
GSO ~15
FAY 18

SC:
GSP 16
CAE 17

GA:
AHN 17
MCN 17
SAV 22

6Z Models: NAM, GFS, Euro had 20s at all of these and thus were mainly 3-8 too warm though Asheville was close

6Z NAM lows:


6Z Euro lows:


Icon was slightly colder and thus was close on some though even it was a few degrees too warm at others of these.

Implications, if any, for the 2m progs for the upcoming threat?

 

[jackendrickwx]

The models were largely too warm for this morning’s lows:

Actual lows
NC:
Charlotte 19
Asheville 15
RDU ~20
GSO ~15
FAY 18

SC:
GSP 16
CAE 17

GA:
AHN 17
MCN 17
SAV 22

6Z Models: NAM, GFS, Euro had 20s at all of these and thus were mainly 5-10 too warm though Asheville was close

6Z NAM lows:
View attachment 184192

6Z Euro lows:
View attachment 184193

Icon was slightly colder and thus was close on some though even it was a few degrees too warm at others of these.

Implications, if any, for the 2m progs for the upcoming threat?

Unfortunately a radiational cooling night is a good bit more likely to undercut model temps vs what we will be seeing on sunday morning IMO

 

[jackendrickwx]

FWIW could get some changes from the American models tonight with TEAL71 & 72 flying obs missions. I think it would be ingested for the 00z suite.

 

[Tsappfrog20]

I will say Raleigh is at least preparing they have brined the major interstates. I know 540 and 440 have been brined!


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[Dunkman]

There was brine on some secondary roads near the airport on my drive to work in Greensboro this morning.

I will say Raleigh is at least preparing they have brined the major interstates. I know 540 and 440 have been brined!


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[Wild Weather Monger]

First positive trend of the day: We need to keep the base of the longwave trough ticking west right up through verification at this time-stamp to stand a chance.

 

[packfan98]

 

[EastmanGAWX]

For those who dispute snow being rare in the lower half of Georgia, I’ll give you this case example. I’m 38 years old and have lived in Eastman, GA the vast majority of my life (outside of college and some work experience) and accumulating snowfalls have happened exactly six times. The dates are 12/23/1993, 1/03/2002, 2/12/2010, 1/29/2014, 1/17/2018, and 1/21/2025. Of these storms, only four produced at least one inch. If I get any type of snow, this will be the first time in my life experiencing winters with consecutive snow falls.

 

[Mitch West]

Snow to the coast on the GFS.

 

[malak05]

12z GFS was further SW with energy a good bit hench better overall run still needs to tilt more neutral/negative a decent amount if you want more moisture pushed further North and West still

 

[packfan98]

 

[Mitch West]

Almost seems like the timing of the start of the event is unchanged but the system is starting to become prolonged on some guidance.

 

[malak05]

If that comma head is oriented just this much we are seeing a better overall result for SE

 

[HailCore]

Where there are highs, lows are not far off. When there are lows, highs are not far off. I think its safe to say we had a fair share of lows overnight and this morning, so here's to starting some positive trends as we go into the afternoon, evening, and potentially into Saturday.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Baby steps, yes. Hopium, yes. But I'll grab onto any guidance that slows this down a tad.

 

[NBAcentel]

Another thing that’s kinda wrecking the setup is this piece of northern stream, it’s pushing the frontal part of the vort more ahead, reducing spacing for positive vorticity advection. If that energy could shear some or head further NE embedded in the vort, better

 

[GaWx]

Icon last 4 runs looking better for S GA to WC SC:

 

[superjames1992]

12z GFS is a bit of an improvement vs 06z IMO, though it’s obviously a shell of its former runs. Splitting hairs though.

 

[KyloG]

This has evolved into a late blooming coastal that will hit the NE...really too bad...if it could have bloomed a little quicker and slowed down a smidge. Lot of "ifs" needed though...

 

[Arcc]

Baby steps, yes. Hopium, yes. But I'll grab onto any guidance that slows this down a tad.
View attachment 184200

Huge movement of that Vort over Canada.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Something to cling to until the Doctor is in the house:

 

[superjames1992]

Something to cling to until the Doctor is in the house:
View attachment 184206

The Canadian model suite has really looked better for us over the last few runs. Of course, they showed zilch before so a dusting or non-accumulating snow is a marked improvement.

 

[Makeitsnow]

Canadian likes georgia this morning. Again a good but more of this is snow than shown. But its an outlier.

 

[KyloG]

We buying...

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Huge movement of that Vort over Canada.

Good catch. I was myopically focused on the base of the trough. Seems like a rather large movement for an AI model, regardless of its relatively low-scale versus other AI.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

We buying...

View attachment 184208

Def starting to get the look of a coastal snow for the mid Atlantic and NE


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[malak05]

Canadian likes georgia this morning. Again a good but more of this is snow than shown. But its an outlier.

View attachment 184207

I'm trying to dust off the ole brain from 2017 but I think I recall RGEM being one of the first ones to denote the axis of snow shift maybe I'm miss remembering or hopium

 

[HailCore]

15Z Rap not any better than 09Z unfortunately. Further east overall and does not spit out snow for anybody along the SE coast

 

[Mahomeless]

First positive trend of the day: We need to keep the base of the longwave trough ticking west right up through verification at this time-stamp to stand a chance.View attachment 184195

It won’t matter if the trough stays that positively tilted.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

tbh it’s a tick or two away from that boundary lighting up blue. Need this thing to really blossom and throw moisture back into the cold dome. Not skirt SW to NE around it. A lil blocking would have went a long way

 

[malak05]

It won’t matter if the trough stays that positively tilted.

Got to try to extend and give more time for that to happen so that does help but your right additional dynamics need to occur

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

It won’t matter if the trough stays that positively tilted.

I disagree. Every tick west allows more time for overrunning to get going as CAA is occurring and, more time for the vort to tilt more neutral. Of course, I'm referring to Georgia.

 

[Engeo]

 

[Snowfan]

New GRAF:

 

[carolinaman]

I will say Raleigh is at least preparing they have brined the major interstates. I know 540 and 440 have been brined!


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Harnett County already brined all the major roads yesterday afternoon. 95, 401, 421, 55, 210, etc. If it's an all rain event at least it'll wash it off the roads

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Allan’s First Map is out

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[Wild Weather Monger]

UKMET is a little further east, and other than some trivial snow in South Georgia, a nothingburger. Portends badly for Dr. No's entrance.

 

[LongRanger]

I disagree. Every tick west allows more time for overrunning to get going as CAA is occurring and, more time for the vort to tilt more neutral. Of course, I'm referring to Georgia.

It's not gonna move NW as long as it's positive Tilted. Just not gonna happen

 

[maxwx]

just a heads up, this through just needs to tilt like a few degrees for it to go off