Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

[Snowfan]

FFC:
To start the extended periods the models are showing the first
frontal boundary laying across east central and south GA with a
second reinforcing frontal boundary moving into NW GA. The forecast
models are beginning to come into better agreement with how they
expect things to play out Sat night/Sun with this possible winter
system. The models are showing a wave developing along the tail end
of the first frontal boundary over the central Gulf Sat evening. This
wave moves rapidly NE along the boundary bringing precipitation
mainly to central and south GA. We will have some cool air in place
as this wave moves through but with it moving in from a much
further southern location than we were seeing yesterday looks like
we will mainly see a Rain/Snow mix across Central GA turning to all
snow just as its exiting the area from NW to SE. The second front
comes in and helps to push the first front out of the area exiting
the GA coast by 18z Sun to 00z Mon.

As far as impacts go...right now we are looking at light
accumulations if any at all. The best location for accumulations
look to be areas along and south of a Columbus to Forsyth to
Greensboro line. These locations should see 0.25" or less through
Sun afternoon. Temperatures are also expected to get up into the
40s across this same area Sun so any accumulation will not last to
long.

 

[packfan98]

the AIFS has been Dr. No the whole time though, and still does not show (never has shown) a snow accum map anywhere near the latest wxnext:

View attachment 184136


long-ish range trend of the EC-AI under the hood follows. Despite + tilt issues it continues to incrementally dig further southwest

View attachment 184138

For comparison's sake, the OP euro in the same range:

View attachment 184139

Are there soundings for the AIFS? I checked soundings on most of those models not showing snow output and the soundings were solidly snow soundings. I've found it a little easier to just look at the 24 hour precip maps to track trends and comparisons. Hopefully, there will be enough moisture to get decent rates and see snow. I'm thinking there's going to be a lot of "snow TV" and "White Rain" that doesn't amount to much, but is prettier to look at than plain rain.

 

[RBR71]

I know the SREF has it's issues but it's actually not to dissimilar from the latest Google AI

 

[malak05]

Well 12z NAM just kicked off for people out further West it's basically make or break over next 18 hour of runs. Will need to see solid NW jogs to really have a shot

 

[RBR71]

Are there soundings for the AIFS? I checked soundings on most of those models not showing snow output and the soundings were solidly snow soundings. I've found it a little easier to just look at the 24 hour precip maps to track trends and comparisons. Hopefully, there will be enough moisture to get decent rates and see snow. I'm thinking there's going to be a lot of "snow TV" and "White Rain" that doesn't amount to much, but is prettier to look at than plain rain.

Biggest issue I've seen on the Euro AI with thermals is the BL is just way too warm, whether it's accurate with that or not, time will tell. Seeing the qpf increase is a good sign, if it is struggling with too warm BL then increased qpf would be a great sign.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Are there soundings for the AIFS? I checked soundings on most of those models not showing snow output and the soundings were solidly snow soundings. I've found it a little easier to just look at the 24 hour precip maps to track trends and comparisons. Hopefully, there will be enough moisture to get decent rates and see snow. I'm thinking there's going to be a lot of "snow TV" and "White Rain" that doesn't amount to much, but is prettier to look at than plain rain.

I don't know of a way to get them.

Also, I've said before that in general the AIFS runs too warm at night, but in this situation it is actually pretty close 2m wise to a model I trust at night near frontal passages, the 12k NAM. Something I don't have any clue if it would be able to ID is dynamic cooling stuff like you mentioned. My guess would be probably not?

But imo this combo is a major warning shot for folks in eastern, perhaps even central NC as far as being able to crash the column should you materialize sufficient precip

 

[Parker]

12z HRRR, this looks cool but the surface precip is still well south.

 

[jackendrickwx]

View attachment 184145
12z HRRR, this looks cool but the surface precip is still well south.

Something that is probably only relevant for MBY and folks near me up the immediate NC Foothills counties is downsloping potentially hurting already borderline 2m temps and wasting some precip on virga should a beefier precip solution come to pass

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

View attachment 184145
12z HRRR, this looks cool but the surface precip is still well south.

Rather nice look, even though it's verga precip that shows up, it shows that precip can get that far north. Hrrr actually strengthens the vort quicker than any other model and tries tilting quickly. Globals have been rather flat. Telling you, for our area this look is very much like 2017

 

[Mahomeless]

In all honesty, if this thing doesn’t slow and tilt to some degree, this is just a cold chasing moisture game for everyone. We better hope we see some major shifts if anyone wants anything frozen.

 

[RBR71]

I don't know of a way to get them.

Also, I've said before that in general the AIFS runs too warm at night, but in this situation it is actually pretty close 2m wise to a model I trust at night near frontal passages, the 12k NAM. Something I don't have any clue if it would be able to ID is dynamic cooling stuff like you mentioned. My guess would be probably not?

But imo this combo is a major warning shot for folks in eastern, perhaps even central NC as far as being able to crash the column should you materialize sufficient precip

The AIFS at H60 has my surface temp at 42 while the 06z NAM had my surface temp at 33 with snow. Is this a case of the NAM keying in on dynamic cooling, crashing the column and AI still struggling with that? Here's to hoping it is but I'd think this isn't the first event like this and AI should be "learning", either way will be something to watch. Of course the NAM could come right now on fire with BL and back to square one lol

 

[Engeo]

Definitely am still rather worried that the cold front doesn’t get here in time for the Carolinas and it’s just a cold rain, unless we get adequate moisture into the far western Piedmont/near or NW of 85.

It’s harder to cold advect Saturday night when you’re socked in with clouds and light patchy precip has already started.

To what extent can dynamic cooling “make up” for a lack of CAA in this type of setup given heavy precipitation rates (if at all)?

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

In all honesty, if this thing doesn’t slow and tilt to some degree, this is just a cold chasing moisture game for everyone. We better hope we see some major shifts if anyone wants anything frozen.

Yep, one of the main differences really is the Pacific jet placement being much more favorable than usual. Normally we're having to thread the needle with it. Now we're threading the needle with tilt. It's a step up but we need more.

 

[maxwx]

View attachment 184145
12z HRRR, this looks cool but the surface precip is still well south.

I almost doubt that, I think hrr is a bit dry

 

[Webberweather53]

To what extent can dynamic cooling “make up” for a lack of CAA in this type of setup given heavy precipitation rates (if at all)?

The problem with heavier precipitation rates is while you cool the lower part of the column, that also likely means you’re getting stronger warm advection aloft and sacrificing the mid-level part of the profile. Even the most subtle warm nose in a system like this would change you over to rain. Also there is not a viable cold source for our weak scraggly coastal low to tap into. Of course, it’s not strong to begin with; so that won’t help you much either.

 

[jackendrickwx]

The AIFS at H60 has my surface temp at 42 while the 06z NAM had my surface temp at 33 with snow. Is this a case of the NAM keying in on dynamic cooling, crashing the column and AI still struggling with that? Here's to hoping it is but I'd think this isn't the first event like this and AI should be "learning", either way will be something to watch. Of course the NAM could come right now on fire with BL and back to square one lol

You would think that such a coarse model would have trouble resolving something like this, but yeah you need the NAM to be right for it to matter. It's also possible the AIFS would show a closer 2m temp to the NAM if it was showing a similar solution to the NAM. I just simply don't know, I've never had an opportunity to dissect it in a situation like this before.

Still must treat the NAM as an outlier but nice to see wxnext make a jump towards it snow map wise. Remember wxnext is an ensemble mean.

 

[Spurs up]

The problem with heavier precipitation rates is while you cool the lower part of the column, that also likely means you’re getting stronger warm advection aloft and sacrificing the mid-level part of the profile. Even the most subtle warm nose in a system like this would change you over to rain. Also there is not a viable cold source for our weak scraggly coastal low to tap into. Of course, it’s not strong to begin with; so that won’t help you much either.

When Webber talks I listen. Im moving on to next chance if there is one.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Ugh. Wrong way back west.

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

The problem with heavier precipitation rates is while you cool the lower part of the column, that also likely means you’re getting stronger warm advection aloft and sacrificing the mid-level part of the profile. Even the most subtle warm nose in a system like this would change you over to rain. Also there is not a viable cold source for our weak scraggly coastal low to tap into. Of course, it’s not strong to begin with; so that won’t help you much either.

I'm just hoping for the best here in toccoa... Snow drought has been unreal here

 

[Bigedd09]

Ugh. Wrong way back west. View attachment 184148

Not surprised. Oh well. Time to move onto the next one. This is when we needed the models to trend better not worse


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[Webberweather53]

When Webber talks I listen. Im moving on to next chance if there is one.

I would still watch this obviously because you never know sometimes, but this system has a lot more negatives than positives.

 

[LongRanger]

If this thing can't neg tilt then most areas can forget snow.

 

[anc.py]

This is certainly a pain to track.

 

[malak05]

Its minor but if you compare the NAM to past runs and other models it's position does appear to have a slight move to Negative tilt.... Not much but a little more north to south oriented contour at 45

 

[Webberweather53]

I have serious doubts it’s going to be cold enough to see snow at all outside the Triad area and pts North and West from this in NC.

I’m not a fan of precip starting in the Triangle area with temps in the 40s overnight and hoping you just magically crater 7-10F to changeover to snow

 

[anc.py]

Its minor but if you compare the NAM to past runs and other models it's position does appear to have a slight move to Negative tilt.... Not much but a little more north to south oriented contour at 45

Too bad it ticks too progressive. Nothing at 12z/Sun now.

 

[Bigedd09]

NAM coming in line with other guidance. I don’t see anymore trends NW tbh

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[Stormdoc]

View attachment 184150

This is certainly a pain to track.

I agree. At the old American forum the mid Atlantic and north easterners would refer to this as “positive tilted trash”. Close enough to get your hopes up, but would usually disappoint. I’m ready to track a good bowling ball or some system we can actually watch move west to east, versus something that will form out of nowhere.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Ha, ride the lightning I guess. How many runs does it have left till it falls in line?


View attachment 183893

The answer was not very many!

 

[Webberweather53]

This whole setup in the carolinas is the definition of cold chasing moisture. Blargh

 

[RBR71]

Good grief

 

[malak05]

NAM coming in line with other guidance. I don’t see anymore trends NW tbh

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Yeah if you look at it compared to 6z yesterday the difference of a slightly deeper dig out SW and then slower progression allowing the tilt to progress ahead more negative....different between a nice hit for a chunk of AL/GA and thru the Carolinas to just missing

 

[Mitch West]

I am betting that's the last tick SE the NAM will take. We will see if I eat crow on that in about 6 hours.

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Still can't get this thing to go neutral. Axis of precip looks like it may have changed orientation, but I'm behind on the trends.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Yeah if you look at it compared to 6z yesterday the difference of a slightly deeper dig out SW and then slower progression allowing the tilt to progress ahead more negative....different between a nice hit for a chunk of AL/GA and thru the Carolinas to just missing

I was hoping we'd see at least a stop to the less Western digging into SW Texas. Instead, 12Z continued to tick eastward. All signs point to a fail north of Macon.

 

[Psalm 148:8]

Where is the NW (precip shield) when you need it!! 99 times out of 100 it’s there!! This thing should be a north GA/mountains event by now.. . Murphy’s law.

 

[HailCore]

Does anyone have a newer NBM update or is that quickly going to trash?

 

[KyloG]

Not sure any trend can help central NC at this point but for places further south/west/east it looks like you have a chance.

 

[Webberweather53]

Asking for dynamic cooling to save you midday when the cold air isn’t here to begin with is a recipe for disaster.

 

[malak05]

Just how different a 120 mile west/slower progression with a chance to at least go neutral compared to today. :/

6z Yesterday


6z Yesterday

12z Today