Are there soundings for the AIFS? I checked soundings on most of those models not showing snow output and the soundings were solidly snow soundings. I've found it a little easier to just look at the 24 hour precip maps to track trends and comparisons. Hopefully, there will be enough moisture to get decent rates and see snow. I'm thinking there's going to be a lot of "snow TV" and "White Rain" that doesn't amount to much, but is prettier to look at than plain rain.
Biggest issue I've seen on the Euro AI with thermals is the BL is just way too warm, whether it's accurate with that or not, time will tell. Seeing the qpf increase is a good sign, if it is struggling with too warm BL then increased qpf would be a great sign.
I don't know of a way to get them.
Something that is probably only relevant for MBY and folks near me up the immediate NC Foothills counties is downsloping potentially hurting already borderline 2m temps and wasting some precip on virga should a beefier precip solution come to pass
The AIFS at H60 has my surface temp at 42 while the 06z NAM had my surface temp at 33 with snow. Is this a case of the NAM keying in on dynamic cooling, crashing the column and AI still struggling with that? Here's to hoping it is but I'd think this isn't the first event like this and AI should be "learning", either way will be something to watch. Of course the NAM could come right now on fire with BL and back to square one lol
To what extent can dynamic cooling “make up” for a lack of CAA in this type of setup given heavy precipitation rates (if at all)?
Yep, one of the main differences really is the Pacific jet placement being much more favorable than usual. Normally we're having to thread the needle with it. Now we're threading the needle with tilt. It's a step up but we need more.
I almost doubt that, I think hrr is a bit dry
You would think that such a coarse model would have trouble resolving something like this, but yeah you need the NAM to be right for it to matter. It's also possible the AIFS would show a closer 2m temp to the NAM if it was showing a similar solution to the NAM. I just simply don't know, I've never had an opportunity to dissect it in a situation like this before.
When Webber talks I listen. Im moving on to next chance if there is one.
I'm just hoping for the best here in toccoa... Snow drought has been unreal here
I agree. At the old American forum the mid Atlantic and north easterners would refer to this as “positive tilted trash”. Close enough to get your hopes up, but would usually disappoint. I’m ready to track a good bowling ball or some system we can actually watch move west to east, versus something that will form out of nowhere.
Yeah if you look at it compared to 6z yesterday the difference of a slightly deeper dig out SW and then slower progression allowing the tilt to progress ahead more negative....different between a nice hit for a chunk of AL/GA and thru the Carolinas to just missingNAM coming in line with other guidance. I don’t see anymore trends NW tbh
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I was hoping we'd see at least a stop to the less Western digging into SW Texas. Instead, 12Z continued to tick eastward. All signs point to a fail north of Macon.
. Murphy’s law.
The energy over ND appears to be influencing the evolution of the larger longwave
