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Observations Fright Night Halloween Week Severe Obs

BirdManDoomW

BirdManDoomW

WilkesboroDude
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Given the big game up in Boone, the SPC already introducing a Marginal Risk 3 days out for severe, trick or treaters along the road, fall color leaves falling, etc. Post your rain totals, gusts, any mountains winter weather, temp swings, goblin sightings, severe weather and loss of fall color leaves here as all could occur.
 
Per SPC, no upgrade until a better handle of instability is realized if any. Strong damaging winds within a line is the current threat. C73B8E5B-161C-48F4-B348-3D0C0DB10B69.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Good thread birdman, if both NAMs are correct, which they have a tendency to overdo instability, it wouldn’t shock me to see a slight or even a enhanced
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And timing which keeps changing to what I think is for more severe now.
 
So, this means that we will have probably an Enhanced risk for severe weather?
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This was day 3 in the 2016 tornado outbreak
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This was day 2 in the 20160224 tornado outbreak
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And this was day 1 in the outbreak.
Seems to be they are slapping the lowest risk, only to be upgraded every day until day 1.
 
My analysis part 1. I think the NAM is growing increasingly severe for the central piedmont west into the foothills and mtns of NC and extreme north-western SC. Orange is noted for the heavy squall line but don’t be fooled as precip starts to favor Virginia over Raleigh area south. More on this with part 2 analysis. Purple is activity breaking out front that needs to be watched as it moves moves north-East. Note again not a due east movement which will severely hurt eastern NC’s rainfall department. Moreover, Saturation will occur in the NC mtns before even more rain and wind hits with the main line. I smell a flood threat (Watauga, Ashe, Allegheny) given the strong upslope shown in the yellow line. These areas could approach a foot of rain for October given recent rain events going over 4”. I’m worried High Wind Warnings will need to be stated for the ground being very saturated despite being in a drought* (Thursday update should show improvement however). Circled the GOM black as there is little to no disruption of moisture to stop what’s coming namely for western NC. 977822E8-643B-4E54-9D10-7936803B094B.jpeg
 
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My analysis part 2. Really wanna reiterate some flood threat for GSP and Blacksburg zones esp where they meet. Movement starts to tilt north instead of due East prolonging some flooding concerns along the Blue Ridge. Blue is circled for my greatest flood threat. Notice the line segment does not weaken any despite major upslope rains 12 hours prior. There appears to be some bowing in the line from Boone to Hickory that will need to be watched for gusts over 50mph on top of a wet ground. Isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out but it’s largely unknown what the instability will look like for areas like Lincoln County NC or Iredell. I circled down East cause none of this will help bring the rains you need. 66E461D0-81BA-4FCD-A2F9-4A800C15C541.jpeg
 
BirdManDoomW said:
My analysis part 1. I think the NAM is growing increasingly severe for the central piedmont west into the foothills and mtns of NC and extreme north-western SC. Orange is noted for the heavy squall line but don’t be fooled as precip starts to favor Virginia over Raleigh area south. More on this with part 2 analysis. Purple is activity breaking out front that needs to be watched as it moves moves north-East. Note again not a due east movement which will severely hurt eastern NC’s rainfall department. Moreover, Saturation will occur in the NC mtns before even more rain and wind hits with the main line. I smell a flood thread (Watauga, Ashe, Allegheny) given the strong upslope shown in the yellow line. These areas could approach a foot of rain for October given recent rain events going over 4”. I’m worried High Wind Warnings will need to be stated for the ground being very saturated despite being in a drought* (Thursday update should show improvement however). Circled the GOM black as there is little to no disruption of moisture to stop what’s coming namely for western NC. View attachment 25069
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LR HRRR i think a lot of people across the southeast will have a chance for some severe weather. The rouge storms that the models are showing are a little worrying Screenshot_20191029-155939_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20191029-155950_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20191029-160046_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Feel free to post LIVE ASU broadcasts here during the game to see the weather. I will be on i77 if any rotation exists to chase from Yadkinville to Mooresville. Leaf season will largely be ended by this event IMO.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Ok!
My tornado index, or something like that, from B Rad, had me at 0
Think around CLT, it was one? On his FB post
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Yeah timing is better for CLT, his graph if I’m not mistaken had CLT at 1-3 STP, I don’t think much of a TOR threat, more of a straight line wind type setup
 
2 slight risks are out for western NC. For flooding.
 
If Nam is to be believed. The national weather service is really downplaying what could be a large scale severe weather outbreak of some kind


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LR HRRR looks nasty for individual supercells wether this verifies or not. Storms look to isolate themselves giving themselves a better chance to rotate. Idk if i think itll be a severe outbreak but i could see a tornado or two. HRRRSE_prec_radar_021.pngHRRRSE_prec_radar_029.pngHRRRSE_con_uphlysw_033.png
 
WPC may be waiting to upgrade to Moderate Risk to see how much falls tomorrow. Looks wet western Wilkes, Boone, etc. Up to 2” through 0z Thurs. Well before any thunderstorms/line.
 
From a flash drought to seeing over 10” during October 2019. The pink area I’m watching to overperform a day in advance. 3-6” possible once it’s done Thursday. On top of 4”+ just last week in places like Sparta, NC, monthly totals will exceed 10”. Also can’t forget other rain episodes including the tropical storm. B155C751-85BF-4C60-96E0-862F83841F72.jpeg
 
It’s also been raining in spots from Wilkes into the Virginia foothills today despite no radar returns.
 
NWS Blacksburg says 4”+ poss. from Boone NC into VA in their AFD.
 
Decent qlcs setup around here much better than the 2 earlier this month.
Wouldn't be supposed to see a few spin ups along the way either especially in the western and central Piedmont late in the afternoon to early evening.
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Profiles loook quite soggy, maybe some drying if the NAM is right, but moist profiles and skinny cape will aid in storms that lack lightning, like I said before if you see a storm producing lightning in this setup, it’s likely rotating, or has a stronger updraft which poses a more localized severe weather risk, one thing I always notice about fall setups
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Profiles loook quite soggy, maybe some drying if the NAM is right, but moist profiles and skinny cape will aid in storms that lack lightning, like I said before if you see a storm producing lightning in this setup, it’s likely rotating, or has a stronger updraft which poses a more localized severe weather risk, one thing I always notice about fall setups
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So basically, this will be a similar setup to the last two cold fronts? Heavy rain with hardly any lightning?
 
Any chance this is upgraded to a enhanced risk tomorrow? When that warm front lifts north conditions seem fairly ripe for severe weather


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This is how you get your typical 58-64 degree saturated tornado in the NC foothills per the NAM. Recent years have featured hits in Wilkes, Hickory and even Ashe County. Storms (with lightning initially) develop near the SC border denoted in the purple box (Hubert’s Box to get foothill tornadoes in an otherwise cool rainy day). These track north-East with little to no advancement East out into the Piedmont. In fact, drifts to the north can cause unusual hits along mountain ridges (eastern Ashe County) and (Hays/Stone MTN Wilkes County) as seen recently. I have shown this in the narrow black zone. To the East I can see the surge of moisture off the Atlantic bringing in clouds and light rains all the way to the escarpment (if you want a tornado you need to track it in from the south-west it likely won’t form overhead of you).790637ED-EEDD-4EC7-A86F-3FFDAC655CAB.jpeg
 
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Snow wise, with so many people going to be in Boone I would recommend staying the night to see it given the late start to the game. Wind snow odds should be near 50% with little to no travel issues. I recommend Beach MTN for snowflakes. Rime ice also won’t be too far away in the morning if no changeover occurs.11649643-C635-42E1-9FC0-138F6758ABEE.jpeg
 
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Flash Flood Watches will be evaluated once today’s totals are in for western NC and VA per NWS Blacksburg.
 
SPC:
Current HREF guidance suggests the probability of any pre-frontal
supercells across central VA and the central Carolinas is low.
However, the environmental conditions ahead of the front during the
late afternoon support supercell development with any persistent
deep convection.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
SPC:
Current HREF guidance suggests the probability of any pre-frontal
supercells across central VA and the central Carolinas is low.
However, the environmental conditions ahead of the front during the
late afternoon support supercell development with any persistent
deep convection.
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I doubt they issue a enhanced risk for the i77 corridor into the foothills. But that’s where the deep convection is likely but it’s more of a micro climate setup.
 
If any cell pops up ahead of the main line that’s where you’d get a isolated tornado. While the main line could produce a very brief spin up. The lines main threat likely strong wind and heavy rain.


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This supercell in southwest alabama has been broadly rotating.Screenshot_20191030-084816_RadarScope.jpgScreenshot_20191030-084820_RadarScope.jpg
 
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