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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Tarheel1 said:
Jon, the PV splits you referenced were both in January. You don't think the potential outcome of a split in February would be different? Not as cold, etc
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The Jan 1 1991 was a displacement. In my tweet I mention Jan 1991 but not Feb 1991. There was actually a split in Feb 1 1991.

PV split doesn’t mean cold east, obviously. But to be fair the Feb 1991 one was incredibly short lived and not that impressive.

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But to answer your question I’m not sure. I think I could do some research and find some cold months after a PV split or displacement in Feb or March. Feb is pretty cold in general as far as climo goes so I’d be more concerned if this was something modeled in March.

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With all the runoff today, Lake Lanier went up 0.3' today.Making good progress on filling it back up and also busting the drought. Both the GEFS and EPS look wet over the next week into the LR for now.
 
Storm5 said:
Get the shorts ready
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Ready, hell...never put away your shorts down here. Sported mine 2 out of the last 4 days even in my deer stand.


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MBell said:
This is how you know the models are looking warm.... this thread is dead. lol. I am still hoping for a cold spell or two before we get into April... Feb/Mar can still produce surprises...but it sure doesn't look promising.
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And just as you posted this, the 0Z Doc decides to be drunk and have a totally different solution for the US in the 6-10 day period vs the 12Z. What the?
 
MBell said:
You’ve got to be kidding? Wow!
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example: hour 180 of 0z Euro has Chicago 36 F colder than the 12Z Euro hour 192 with -2 F vs +34 F!

Edit: It isn't colder for the NE/SE for the 6-10 day period as a whole but it is much colder in much of the Midwest westward to the Rockies. The point is that it is a model in flux/a confused model. What will the next run show?.
 
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GaWx said:
example: hour 180 of 0z Euro has Chicago 36 F colder than the 12Z Euro hour 192 with -2 F vs +34 F!

Edit: It isn't colder for the NE/SE for the 6-10 day period as a whole but it is much colder in much of the Midwest westward to the Rockies. The point is that it is a model in flux/a confused model. What will the next run show?.
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Right on que if you ask me. Should be sliding,bleeding,heading east day10ish plus. That puts us Feb 15 and should give us our second half Feb/ early March last window of opportunity. That's been the advertisement all along, second half Feb. Some where circling Feb 7+, and that was a little premature as it takes net effects,pattern shuffle a few extra days to come to furition.
Just hope the bowl shape trough sets up far enough east so we aren't on the right side of storm tracks should they evolve. IN Jan we were almost to far left side of envelope, save for coastal areas.
 
Well I'll tell y'all what, I'm an optimist and my feeling is, that if it can change from looking good to looking bad, then it can change from looking bad to looking good.
 
Lol never fails to see Joe Bastardi break out the modoki El Niño crap way before the spring predictability barrier even at the slightest hint of a La Niña fading out so he can spew ectoplasm everywhere about all the cold and snow he's gonna get in his backyard next winter.
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Webberweather53 said:
Lol never fails to see Joe Bastardi break out the modoki El Niño crap way before the spring predictability barrier even at the slightest hint of a La Niña fading out so he can spew ectoplasm everywhere about all the cold and snow he's gonna get in his backyard next winter.
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Good grief here we go again with his "Oh no, we didn't get a lot of snow here. So let's say winter has more left in it" garbage again. It is always the same every year from him. He also flunked on the ENSO so many times I think that I don't even pay attention to his LR predictions like that.
 
I think we're done with winter storm chances for my area. Just don't see anything coming down the pipe. And this is how our winters have been the past few years. We either get one good storm like the last one we had in January, or nothing at all. The days of getting two or three good storms during winter here are gone.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol never fails to see Joe Bastardi break out the modoki El Niño crap way before the spring predictability barrier even at the slightest hint of a La Niña fading out so he can spew ectoplasm everywhere about all the cold and snow he's gonna get in his backyard next winter.
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I agree that it is way too early to make a confident call on Enso next fall/winter. Someone ought to keep track of how many times he's predicted Modoki El Niño vs how often that has verified. Anyway, yep, he's essentially already predicting a cold E US for next winter. This is one of the earliest, too. Keep in mind that he's had and I assume still has energy clients. Energy companies, which typically want higher prices and usage, strongly prefer cold E US winters.
 
I just got confirmation from the MDA mets that the GEFS is usually colder than the GFS these days (really since the last GFS modification) because the GFS, which had been cold biased, had switched to a warm bias due to changes in its physics in its last modification whereas the GEFS members are still run on the older cold biased GFS physics. Apparently, they tried to also upgrade the GEFS to incorporate the warmer underlying GFS but that wasn't successful. So, we're essentially left with the odd combo of a warm biased operational GFS and cold biased GEFS! The Euro/EPS remain warm biased.
 
GaWx said:
I just got confirmation from the MDA mets that the GEFS is usually colder than the GFS these days (really since the last GFS modification) because the GFS, which had been cold biased, had switched to a warm bias due to changes in its physics in its last modification whereas the GEFS members are still run on the older cold biased GFS physics. Apparently, they tried to also upgrade the GEFS to incorporate the warmer underlying GFS but that wasn't successful. So, we're essentially left with the odd combo of a warm biased operational GFS and cold biased GEFS! The Euro/EPS remain warm biased.
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Interesting. Do you know if this is for all lead times, or specific to 0-5 days or long range???
 
packfan98 said:
Interesting. Do you know if this is for all lead times, or specific to 0-5 days or long range???
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They said the discrepancy of warm biased GFS and cold biased GEFS was most evident in the 1-5 but by no means is it confined to that period, which makes sense. I can't think of a reason why they'd come back together in later periods.
 
GaWx said:
They said the discrepancy of warm biased GFS and cold biased GEFS was most evident in the 1-5 but that it wasn't confined to that period.
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Well, it also never gets the placement of lows correct for our area in that time period either. No wonder it's been so terrible this winter.
 
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