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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

GeorgiaGirl said:
A CAD event around 2/11-2/13 might have some legs...North NC had some wintry from it and the GEFS had been showing something small around there.

edit: looool a cutoff does show up but it's in lala land.
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Way too far out to give it legs. If we can make it to the 9th and it keeps showing up, then it has legs. Also, seeing how the MJO has been shifting and is now projected to go into phase 8 is changing the model output in addition to overall oscillation setups. Shoot, I thought I was getting ice here tomorrow, but the models just said nope, too warm. It may end up like the last event for everyone else as well.
 
With phase 8 looking more likely you would expect models to start trending colder one would think. I know other factors are involved. But I still think we are looking at a colder period in the 8-14 day timeframe. Could be wrong, but I still think most of the upper and mid-south aren't through with winter weather.
 
Based off of what I have the GEFS is still torn but leans even more to warm 8-9 days from now.

edit: nevermind lol. Spoke too soon.
 
You can pretty much kiss this La Nina goodbye, a huge WWB like this in February & March in the wake of one of the strongest WP MJO events on record will at least put us in ENSO neutral conditions as we get into the spring. Further coupling later in the spring or summer could trigger an El Nino. If the forcing wanes, it's also possible La Nina returns later on but we should see this La Nina come to an end at least temporarily over the next several weeks.
u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif
 
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snowvol said:
With phase 8 looking more likely you would expect models to start trending colder one would think. I know other factors are involved. But I still think we are looking at a colder period in the 8-14 day timeframe. Could be wrong, but I still think most of the upper and mid-south aren't through with winter weather.
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I tend to think we at least have a 1-2 inch event still left in the bag this winter.
 
You need to take a drive if this happens Brent
27661259_2012220595472255_594953377_n.png
 
As Mr. Jon posted above the Euro has MJO into phase 8 by mid February. These are previous February and early March periods where the MJO was in similar amplitude phase 8.

Image below is roughly 7-10 days prior to entering phase 8.
MJOPh8-pre10.gif

This is what the Euro shows for roughly 5 days prior to entering phase 8, assuming todays forecast. Cold Eur-Asia like analogs above.

14-km EPS Global Northern Hemisphere 5-day Avg T2M Anom 336.png


Analogs rolled forward 7-10 days after entering phase 8. With tanking SOI and favorable MJO, last 10 days of February into March could be fun.

compday.cVhCLV3O_2.gif
 
pcbjr said:
There was a lawyer, going to Court.
Another lawyer, much older than he, ran into him on the way.
She said - You have a lot of books and papers with you.
He said, Yeah, I have the law on my side. All of this written by learned legal scholars.
She said, do you have facts?
He said, I have this law. I need no more.
He lost.
No-one on the jury knew what he was talking about.
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Lol, you can argue until you are blue in the face over whether it will be above or below normal, but all that matters is if it will be freezing, or below, some of those nights, and it will! It's freakin' winter. It always gets cold. The important factor, is will it also be precipitating on those cold nights, and that there is a crap shoot.
 
I'll just leave this headline on wunderground here:

ok.PNG
 
Storm5 said:
Lol NOAA

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
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Well , Greg Forbes said winters over for the south too! The list is growing, JB has been awful quiet about weather the last few days, once he saw the sonofarcticgeddon collapsing before his eyes! :(
 
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