Round Oak Weather
Member
Anyone wanna put the GEFS members on here?
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Freezing Ferocious February
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Here's 240. Anything further out is most likely fantasy snow. Actually, now that I mention it, most of this probably is too.
Round Oak Weather
Member
It's just fun to look at
dsaur
Member
Or too far south, as I recall, lol.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Im sorry but in no way, shape, or form is this subtropical ridge from the international dateline to western Europe going to verify, a trough is going to show up somewhere in that ridge axis. It tried to blowtorch the entire CONUS a week ago and we see how that's panning out...
pcbjr
Member
Webb,
I really mean it ... hope you saw your shadow this morning and find something percolating out there that'll toss some more winter our way ...
Michael21
Member
The GFS Ensembles showed something simlar. Not very sure if the cold is going to make it to the Southeast U.S this month or not.
Last edited:
Stormlover
Member
much colder on the 6-10 today
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's hard to really take that solution seriously given ridges like this rarely if ever verify, there's going to be a trough somewhere between the East Pacific and Europe.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The EPS is pretty clueless atm, these run-to-run changes have been pretty dramatic, it's hilarious how this model suite has trended from a 150 dm anomalous trough to a 250 dm anomalous ridge over the exact same spot of the NE Pacific in just a few days. Take its forecasts beyond day 7 w/ truckloads of salt.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
On the contrary, that ridge extending that far likely isn't going to be what we see, however, on the other board I saw someone say that strong MJO events favor a ridge over most of the US...
Someone that I would say is knowledgeable too, I saw it from a met on the TN Valley subforum.
Someone that I would say is knowledgeable too, I saw it from a met on the TN Valley subforum.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This claim is not true at all, whoever said this needs to pick up some literature on the topic before spouting baseless garbage. As I've already discussed before, stronger MJO events on their own in isolation lead to more variability in the mid-latitude wave train, interference w/ inherent mid-latitude variability and ENSO can impact the variance as well as the bgd climate. Current literature and data doesn't support this notion that CONUS-wide ridging is automatically favored because we have a strong MJO event, where the MJO is located is more important than its intensity
Last edited:
Stormlover
Member
lots of rain to come here in the next few days
I don't agree that just having above normal 500 mb heights in a location is enough to say there is a 500 mb ridge being depicted there. For example, I don't think that is a 500 mb ridge in the Ohio Valley and Great Plains despite the above normal heights. That looks more like a trough to me considering the shape of the height lines.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm pretty sure it was implied that this was an anomalous ridge. There's normally a trough in the means over the OH Valley anyway so I'm not sure you could really glean any useful information out of saying there's still a trough in the means there even if the heights and surface temps are well above normal as the EPS shows
But what you said was incorrect.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's an anomalous ridge was my point.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Your and 1300m's interpretation of what I said was incorrect, I thought it was implied that this was an anomalous ridge because I'm pretty sure most of us are or should be already well aware there's a trough over the Great Lakes in the means, you would need a ridge axis >1-1.5 sigma just to break even & that's nothing to sneeze at
pcbjr
Member
One hell of a discussion to wake up to ...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
A brief moment to check on the boards and I see a debate on if colors on a map is a ridge or not. From my standpoint, the orange does not equal a ridge. It is an anomaly. It's like saying it's going to be cold in Miami if it's showing below average. It comes down to the intensity and the actual strength. For instance, what defines a ridge at 500MB? It's kind of like what defines a low VS a high and at what MB does it change? The anomalies in between the two centers aren't that above compared to the actual two centers I see.One hell of a discussion to wake up to ...
While it's an anomaly, is it truly a ridge? Does the actual flow of air connect completely and at a decent magnitude,are they barely connected and barely touching, or are they completely disconnected and slightly separated? You also have to remember the resolution on these things this far out is horrendous, so it may appear in a way that isn't true.