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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Kylo
Member
FWIW. Op GFS has MJO plowing into high amplitude phase 8, GEFS getting closer to 8 too after doing a little loop in 7.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
From their recent discussion and looking at the overall setup, the SPC sounds like they're going to pull the trigger soon on severe weather Tue and Wed next week from the Arklatex to the Carolinas
Awesome! That'll give us snow 7-10 days later!
SnowNiner
Member
Ensembles still look like crap long range. Weeklies look like crappier crap. But generally there's a -AO and +PNA forecasted with favorable MJO phases likely. I honestly have no idea what's going to happen this month.
pcbjr
Member
Webb,
The only important thing today is whether you saw your shadow this morning ...
JK and
Best!
Phil
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The RGEM is below freezing near the onset of the precip on Sunday from Raleigh to Charlotte and points NW, I wouldn't sleep on this one even if it's just an in situ CAD esp if you're near and west of the Triad
packfan98
Moderator
And the 12z nam 3km is also picking up on some freezing rain for the same areas:
Stormlover
Member
yeah, he said he was getting hammered, lol
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
That’s warning criteria ice for the immediate foothills.And the 12z nam 3km is also picking up on some freezing rain for the same areas:
Fire up the thread
I may have to eat my punt till V-day comments if this trends any colder eastward... lolAnd the 12z nam 3km is also picking up on some freezing rain for the same areas:
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Thread has been created. Let’s bring it home.
Stormlover
Member
I think you are safe. I'm surely not expecting anything in MBY.
Looking at the latest models' (6Z GFS, 0Z Euro, and 0Z CMC suites) 5 day periods' temperatures, this is what they all show for the SE US:
Days 1-5: a bit colder than normal upper SE to little above normal FL
Days 6-10: between a bit colder than normal to normal Memphis area/W TN/N MS & near normal or warmer than normal rest of SE
Days 11-15: variable Memphis area/W TN/N MS to near normal or warmer rest of SE
Summary: Per latest model consensus:
W TN/N MS is portion of SE with best shot at consistently colder than normal next 15 days.
Days 1-5: a bit colder than normal upper SE to little above normal FL
Days 6-10: between a bit colder than normal to normal Memphis area/W TN/N MS & near normal or warmer than normal rest of SE
Days 11-15: variable Memphis area/W TN/N MS to near normal or warmer rest of SE
Summary: Per latest model consensus:
W TN/N MS is portion of SE with best shot at consistently colder than normal next 15 days.
This stuff gets confusing, we need the phase 7 for the PV split, but that MJO phase is warm for SE!?
MichaelJ
Member
With the EURO flipping about the cold for Feb to warm, I normally would have doubts about why such a drastic flip flop. However with the agreement with it's indices being so strong, it does make me think it could be right and the GEFS and CSV-2 are wrong. Let's see what the GEFS shows tonight or tomorrow and whether it stars to move towards the EURO or holds it's ground. Will be a good test for us to measure one against the other and see if the EURO continues to dawdle in phase 7 of the MJO or pushes it into 8 quickly
I may be wrong but I think it probably has to do with the lag time....