• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

.
508397cb8caf099ed366b05effd82861.jpg


Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
From their recent discussion and looking at the overall setup, the SPC sounds like they're going to pull the trigger soon on severe weather Tue and Wed next week from the Arklatex to the Carolinas
Click to expand...
Well the Euro is onboard for sure

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
From their recent discussion and looking at the overall setup, the SPC sounds like they're going to pull the trigger soon on severe weather Tue and Wed next week from the Arklatex to the Carolinas
Click to expand...
Awesome! That'll give us snow 7-10 days later!
 
Ensembles still look like crap long range. Weeklies look like crappier crap. But generally there's a -AO and +PNA forecasted with favorable MJO phases likely. I honestly have no idea what's going to happen this month.
 
Webberweather53 said:
From their recent discussion and looking at the overall setup, the SPC sounds like they're going to pull the trigger soon on severe weather Tue and Wed next week from the Arklatex to the Carolinas
Click to expand...
Webb,
The only important thing today is whether you saw your shadow this morning ... :p
JK and
Best!
Phil
 
The RGEM is below freezing near the onset of the precip on Sunday from Raleigh to Charlotte and points NW, I wouldn't sleep on this one even if it's just an in situ CAD esp if you're near and west of the Triad
 
Webberweather53 said:
The RGEM is below freezing near the onset of the precip on Sunday from Raleigh to Charlotte and points NW, I wouldn't sleep on this one even if it's just an in situ CAD esp if you're near and west of the Triad
Click to expand...
And the 12z nam 3km is also picking up on some freezing rain for the same areas:
zr_acc.us_ma.png
 
Looking at the latest models' (6Z GFS, 0Z Euro, and 0Z CMC suites) 5 day periods' temperatures, this is what they all show for the SE US:

Days 1-5: a bit colder than normal upper SE to little above normal FL

Days 6-10: between a bit colder than normal to normal Memphis area/W TN/N MS & near normal or warmer than normal rest of SE

Days 11-15: variable Memphis area/W TN/N MS to near normal or warmer rest of SE

Summary: Per latest model consensus:
W TN/N MS is portion of SE with best shot at consistently colder than normal next 15 days.
 
With the EURO flipping about the cold for Feb to warm, I normally would have doubts about why such a drastic flip flop. However with the agreement with it's indices being so strong, it does make me think it could be right and the GEFS and CSV-2 are wrong. Let's see what the GEFS shows tonight or tomorrow and whether it stars to move towards the EURO or holds it's ground. Will be a good test for us to measure one against the other and see if the EURO continues to dawdle in phase 7 of the MJO or pushes it into 8 quickly
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top