• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

JMA for the win ;)

afb5faebcea7f6c2dd77017f73e70ba3.jpg


And the statistical models also ftw
fb56bb76d53e0200aac2057be8175ca4.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
ForsythSnow said:
If the JMA beats the EPS and GEFS, that'll be hilarious.
Click to expand...

The JMA has the smallest bias vector for phase 7 MJO events compared to the GEFS & EPS, which means its better than either model suite for events initialized here. If you invert the bias vector of the EPS in this study and add it onto the current EPS forecast it will look similar to the constructed analog (CA) and JMA forecast w/ an MJO pulse heading into phase 8.
Just a reminder from a paper published last year... ECMWF is king in phases 8,1,2, & 3.
ECMWF, JMA, & NCEP MJO Bias vectors Ichikawa and Inatsu (2017).png
 
Uncle Nasty said:
I had someone on another forum from Athens, TN arguing the fact that we were getting snow in Chattanooga from the last event but it wasn't showing up on radar due to area radar being down. I explained that I knew the radar was down but that didn't change the fact that it wasn't snowing. He actually got pissed off and wanted to argue that it was snowing at my house in Ooltewah even though I told him there was nothing falling from the sky. We have measured a total of a slight dusting on the windshield the entire season.
Click to expand...
Tell him next time he wants to argue this to do two things.

1.) Live in Chattanooga
2.) Watch TDOT cameras around Chattanooga.

I live near Chattanooga and I was working in Chattanooga so, I point 1 covered.
Point 2 I actually watched the cameras on TDOT

Also, snow was falling but, flurries isn't snowing.
 
Disappointing on how 2/7 turned out. I didn't say much but I was keeping tabs on it and really thought some of our upper south people could get in on something.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Disappointing on how 2/7 turned out. I didn't say much but I was keeping tabs on it and really thought some of our upper south people could get in on something.
Click to expand...

We could get in on something but it probably won't be wintry weather, definitely more interested in the prospects for strong thunderstorms and/or severe wx at this juncture
 
Ima hug the ICON for Sunday and hope for dynamics to keep me all snow longer. Pretty much all models have snow to ice to cooooold rain up here. Nothing is trending better so hanging on for dear life here.
 
Nomanslandva said:
Ima hug the ICON for Sunday and hope for dynamics to keep me all snow longer. Pretty much all models have snow to ice to cooooold rain up here. Nothing is trending better so hanging on for dear life here.
Click to expand...
The GFS is an outlier to me, as it sends the low way north, while every model shows it going though Central AL and then just off the coast of the Carolinas. If the ICON trends colder another few runs, and it verifies, there would be a shot at snow and ZR here, but if not, then there is nothing to worry about. However, seeing the NAM is near the GFS and has ZR here, it's worth watching. It also is closest to the ICON on PTypes.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top