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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Storm5 said:
Here comes the arctic lol
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That's a much better look with a taller ridge and deeper air.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The NAM seems to like the idea of ZR on the 4th. Looks earlier than that failed glaze event too, coming in well before the sun rises. Have to watch it and see if it changes or not.
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I thought it was originally seeing more sleet than ZR? Or was that the CMC?
 
Akin to the idea that the GFS is always too amplified with the MJO (which we now know to be very untrue), I still really don't understand the whole premise behind the notion that a weaker MJO automatically favors more cold in the SE US. The data from a few observation sites or one region might support that but it sounds fishy and like another pet theory without there being a plausible physical explanation to accompany it as well as confirmation with other indices, and assurance that there isn't sampling issues because there definitely is.
 
ForsythSnow said:
It could be either or a transition from sleet to ZR. If there is enough sleet that falls to cool the surface, there could be issues, or not because it can transition to all rain.
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Yeah I would be surprised if we got much of anything. Hoping the Euro is right with the token flakes tomorrow.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Akin to the idea that the GFS is always too amplified with the MJO (which we now know to be very untrue), I still really don't understand the whole premise behind the notion that a weaker MJO automatically favors more cold in the SE US. The data from a few observation sites or one region might support that but it sounds fishy and like another pet theory without there being a plausible physical explanation to accompany it as well as confirmation with other indices, and assurance that there isn't sampling issues because there definitely is.
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It may, in fact, be true. But the lack of understanding the reason why it might be true opens the idea up to coincidence. GaWx has done a lot of statistical analysis work through the years, and it's been pretty comprehensive. It's hard to argue with that. But it would be nice to understand that if out of X amount of total observations, COD Phase 8 is the coldest for a location or a handful of locations, why that is the case. Because that is critical to being able to consider the conclusion as a long-term reliable resource.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
What does it means for the Southeast if it goes to 8? What is colder 7 or 8
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Here's the January through March composites for the mjo. But as Larry said below, there are other factors...but phase 8-2 generally are what we want to get in a western ridge eastern trough pattern. Maybe 3 would work too in February....
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SnowNiner said:
Here's the January through March composites for the mjo. But as Larry said below, there are other factors...but phase 8-2 generally are what we want to get in a western ridge eastern trough pattern. Maybe 3 would work too in February....
View attachment 3676
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The image proves your point. We're pretty much in Phase 7 now, and if you look at projected anomalies for the next 8ish days or so, it'll likely show the opposite of the chart.

There has been so much talk about the MJO over the last several years that I think the waters have been muddied. For instance, there is an MJO phase 7 winter composite chart. There's an MJO phase 7 February chart (which is different from the December MJO phase 7 chart). There's an MJO phase 7 February Nina chart (which is different from the MJO phase 7 Nino chart). There's probably an MJO phase 7 February Nina -QBO chart. There's probably an MJO phase 7 February Nina - QBO low solar fast ozone quarter pounder no pickles extra farts chart. All of these iterations almost makes these charts useless on their own. I *think* it's best to look at a general Feb phase 7 chart and then weight it against other things (pattern influencers) at play. There's no silver bullet...except maybe the Royale with Cheese. :)
 
So...while we're waiting on the mjo to trend to save us...there's some chatter about a PV split and warming. I know there's been a bit of discussion but is this an actual real one this time, or is it the yearly unicorn we chase?
 
Rain Cold said:
The image proves your point. We're pretty much in Phase 7 now, and if you look at projected anomalies for the next 8ish days or so, it'll likely show the opposite of the chart.

There has been so much talk about the MJO over the last several years that I think the waters have been muddied. For instance, there is an MJO phase 7 winter composite chart. There's an MJO phase 7 February chart (which is different from the December MJO phase 7 chart). There's an MJO phase 7 February Nina chart (which is different from the MJO phase 7 Nino chart). There's probably an MJO phase 7 February Nina -QBO chart. There's probably an MJO phase 7 February Nina - QBO low solar fast ozone quarter pounder no pickles extra farts chart. All of these iterations almost makes these charts useless on their own. I *think* it's best to look at a general Feb phase 7 chart and then weight it against other things (pattern influencers) at play. There's no silver bullet...except maybe the Royale with Cheese. :)
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Definitely there's no silver bullet (and I know not of what sandwich you speak of) but I'm just trying to rule things out by process of elimination. You have the teleconnections show pretty favorable to get the trough east and to at least allow the cold to bleed south east. You would think. -AO/+PNA. -EPO hangs on I think too. Yet residual ridging and warmth hangs on in the conus in the ensembles, I don't know why. What's missing may be the cooler mjo phases and it just seems that's the missing piece of the puzzle and what we need to line up right. It's probably an over simplification but my guess would be when tropical forcing moves to the right place, our ridges and troughs would too on long range ensemble models. I'm not really a big MJO guy, I've seen winters when I thought it was overrated. But with everything else being even...the fly in the ointment seems to be the MJO. At least currently. And again, focusing on the long range...mid February.

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