Winter Weather Advisories for parts of NE TN and Western NC.
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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Looks better than the GEFS that was posted above which is strange because the EPS looks worse for the SE at 5H than the GEFS does in the LR.
Storm5
Member
.
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Storm5
Member
No shortage of rain over the next 8 days . Good thing cause im 3 inches behind
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Clayton
Member
Wl, you are right and trying to stay optimistic. Not sure it working or helping any of us right now. We're just in a down mood right now
Storm5
Member
Here comes the arctic lol
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SCweather
Member
That's one hell of a ridge on the CMC lol
Storm5
Member
Trapped
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Clayton
Member
Damn, im getting tired of waiting. Hurry up! And that still doesnt look cold enoughHere comes the arctic lol
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Overall trends continue warmer for the SE US on the model consensus through the 12Z GFS.
Edit: ATL gets barely below 0C at 850 next 2 days and then never goes below 0C rest of the 12Z GFS. 6-10 and 11-15 periods warmer than normal at 2 meters SE US.
Edit: ATL gets barely below 0C at 850 next 2 days and then never goes below 0C rest of the 12Z GFS. 6-10 and 11-15 periods warmer than normal at 2 meters SE US.
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I'm sure the GFS will change drastically again once it sees phase 8 or a move to the COD in 8.
Michael21
Member
The 12Z Gfs don't look good for cold in the long range.
SnowNiner
Member
Latest EURO MJO forecast....score! lol.
My guess is that will either correct colder as we close in or be transient in nature. Will we ever get into a snowy pattern? I don't know....
What does it means for the Southeast if it goes to 8? What is colder 7 or 8
Kylo
Member
Whether the MJO gets to phase 8 all global ensembles agree on dumping deep cold into Europe and Asia. Hopefully it can get back to North America before March.
It isn't that cut and dry as there are many factors that work together. However, if we were isolating the MJO, phase 8 would on average be a little colder than phase 7 in the SE US and especially when not at strong amplitudes. Either inside the circle or just outside...i.e., amplitudes of 1.5 or lower tend on average to be more conducive to SE cold. I say only a little colder than phase 7 because phase 7 itself has been pretty cold when near or inside the circle ON AVERAGE. In all likelihood, nothing major will suddenly happen just because it crosses from 7 to 8. Phase 7 has been one of the cooler phases, not warm, ON AVERAGE.
Bottom line though is that the MJO is never on its own, regardless of phase.
I don't believe that will end up being the case. Everything looks good through 240 (and I use "good" loosely) and then shortly after, things get nutty. If in 10 days, we're seeing that solution showing up imminently, then I'll toss the rest of the month. I don't think that will be the case.