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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Yuck is a good word
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This should be a nice, soaking cold rain for much of the NC piedmont especially late on Super Bowl Sunday. Certainly curious to see how long the in-situ CAD holds over the western piedmont especially near & west of the Triad.

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Jon said:
Why would the EPS be correct at 2mT at Day 15 when it cant even get Day 9-10 right at 500mb?




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Isn’t it the best performing model? The GEFS looks much better with developing HLB in the extended. Thanks for the feedback, I hope it’s incorrect.
 
1300m said:
The only thing of recent days that concerns me is the potential trend towards the MJO not progressing into Phase 8, which would likely result in about what the long range ensembles are showing. This whole pattern change idea for me has been largely driven by that potential. I know there are some other factors also potentially in play with the PV split that could help out, but if the MJO doesn't cooperate it's going to make things more complicated. And as Webb has explained, that idea could have legs based on SSTs with Nina. We will see.
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Exactly how I feel at the moment. If the mjo was projected into phase 8 I feel the ensemble models would look colder long range.
1300m said:
I'm not saying it is correct, but if it were to be, this would be why.

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What an unfortunate tease that would be...high amplitude B-line toward favorable MJO phases, then right before it gets to cold and snowy phase 8, it hits the breaks and makes a hard U turn. Of course. Hopefully it's still correcting and we get nicely into phase 8. My worry though it's ALL the major ensembles showing the warm ridging and the phase 7 turn. It's not just the EPS that has been having accuracy problems.
 
SnowNiner said:
Exactly how I feel at the moment. If the mjo was projected into phase 8 I feel the ensemble models would look colder long range.


What an unfortunate tease that would be...high amplitude B-line toward favorable MJO phases, then right before it gets to cold and snowy phase 8, it hits the breaks and makes a hard U turn. Of course. Hopefully it's still correcting and we get nicely into phase 8. My worry though it's ALL the major ensembles showing the warm ridging and the phase 7 turn. It's not just the EPS that has been having accuracy problems.
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It's going to reach phase 8 either with amplitude or into the COD, either case favors cold in the eastern US and RMM may not flesh this out because it uses OLR that has an eastern hemisphere bias. The upper level circulation of the MJO will remain in tact even as we lose the convection and will impart forcing onto the North America wave pattern that resembles a phase 8 event. Even if this index says the MJO just magically dissipated when it reached phase 8 that's going to be far from reality when you have a 3.5-4 sigma event in phase 7, some significant remnant of the MJO will remain when it hits the Western Hemisphere (phase 8-1)
 
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