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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

1300m said:
The only thing of recent days that concerns me is the potential trend towards the MJO not progressing into Phase 8, which would likely result in about what the long range ensembles are showing. This whole pattern change idea for me has been largely driven by that potential. I know there are some other factors also potentially in play with the PV split that could help out, but if the MJO doesn't cooperate it's going to make things more complicated. And as Webb has explained, that idea could have legs based on SSTs with Nina. We will see.
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I do agree with you that it doesn’t look that great as it did a few days ago, but I’m also not ready to throw in the towel since we’re just entirely too far out here. The MJO plots now not making it to Phase 8 were the same that were being initialized wrong and were actually way off as far as amplitude goes just a few days ago (that Webb also pointed out)...I’m willing to wait a little bit on the MJO to see where she’ll go.


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Actually, my suspicion is that the mjo will make it into phase 8, although likely at a low amplitude. I’ve seen it killed too rapidly too many times. I do think we get another legitimate window for wintry weather, but I would like to see some of the guidance begin to show it, instead of sitting around playing tiddlywinks.
 
1300m said:
The only thing of recent days that concerns me is the potential trend towards the MJO not progressing into Phase 8, which would likely result in about what the long range ensembles are showing. This whole pattern change idea for me has been largely driven by that potential. I know there are some other factors also potentially in play with the PV split that could help out, but if the MJO doesn't cooperate it's going to make things more complicated. And as Webb has explained, that idea could have legs based on SSTs with Nina. We will see.
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Does the comment from Mike Ventrice contradict the idea of the phase not progressing?

Mike Ventrice.jpg
 
Any other solutions out there like the GFS 18Z with a low that far north on superbowl sunday? ICON is the only other 18Z that goes out that far and it does not look like that. NAM at 84 looks like it would not go well from there with a couple of MW lows...

ANy one have a Euro ice map?
 
The SOI tanks starting this weekend and continues if you believe the day 10+ ensemble runs of the GEFS/EPS/GEPS. The GEFS and GEPS both develop a strong -AO in the day 9+ range, really solid HLB. Should be optimistic, maybe not until mid February though.

ecmwf-ens_mslpaMean_global_6.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Actually, my suspicion is that the mjo will make it into phase 8, although likely at a low amplitude. I’ve seen it killed too rapidly too many times. I do think we get another legitimate window for wintry weather, but I would like to see some of the guidance begin to show it, instead of sitting around playing tiddlywinks.
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Maybe it won't achieve high amplitude phase 8 but weak phase 8-1-2 won't be as inhibiting as the robust phase 6-7 warm phases.
 
Kylo said:
Maybe it won't achieve high amplitude phase 8 but weak phase 8-1-2 won't be as inhibiting as the robust phase 6-7 warm phases.
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Rain Cold said:
Yep that is true.
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PH 8 inside the circle would not be a bad scenario, at all. In fact, it may be the best we could have ...
 
GaStorm said:
Does the comment from Mike Ventrice contradict the idea of the phase not progressing?

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It doesn't necessarily contradict it, in fact, the upper level signal of the MJO is often all that's left of it as it progresses into the western hemisphere, since the RMM index weights OLR more it's going to lose the MJO much faster, once it's beyond the confines of the warm pool, perhaps too quickly vs reality. A convectively coupled kelvin wave propagating into the western hemisphere will likely result as this MJO pulse reaches the 27-27.5C isotherm in the EQ Pacific where the SSTs aren't sufficient to sustain the convective envelope of the MJO, some of the sensible impacts may be analogous to a phase 8 MJO pulse however so it bears watching in any case. The most significant impact of this MJO event will be the potential reorganization of the ENSO base state and we'll probably take a huge leap towards neutral ENSO by Mar-Apr as a big downwelling kelvin wave is generated in the wake of this MJO event.

The westerly wind burst associated with this near record breaking event in phase 6 will likely not go unnoticed and this is probably what the doctor ordered to get rid of this La Nina, at least for a while. You can clearly see in the hovmoller diagram below, a downwelling kelvin wave generated in November & December in the west Pacific is already taking a sledgehammer to the subsurface anomalies in the east-central Pacific and it probably won't be long before the SSTAs respond. It's only the beginning though... If we can keep this up into the spring & summer we could put ourselves in a decent position to transition into an El Nino again
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pcbjr said:
PH 8 inside the circle would not be a bad scenario, at all. In fact, it may be the best we could have ...
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If the MJO goes on a "bended knee" I will follow LoL...(honestly I think it would be awesome) And probably many others after all is said and done... seems many want the "Massive" everything PNA, A, NAO, MJO, STJ, QBO etc...

Actually we do only need it a little PNA, MJO, PV with a decent southern jet spawn up a weak surface LP and cruise the northern GOM.

For the 20th time mid month not freaking first week-10 days is the opportunity that I can see the pattern shift. I think after the 14th is going to be the money shot. Am I wrong most likely but that is what I've said for last 2 weeks and not budging.

...Carry on
 
GaStorm said:
Talk about being overdue. Wow I would go crazy if I were down in your area.
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I went crazy way back in the 70's when I was under a heavy snow warning and got nothing. That seared me to the torment of loving ip/sn in Ga. But my role model is a lady in her 80's that never missed a snow to go sledding down the hill in front of her house. Didn't matter how cold, or brutal the wind, she said she'd learned to never expect another one because of the droughts in her life, lol. Her, and Zonker, who was on a sled, while all his friends were taking finals, saying, "one must have ones priorities." On Feb 1'st I figure I have one more 2 month period where I might get to sled that hill again, but I've been waiting 20 years, and I could easily kill myself at my age, lol. Still, I have my priorities, lol.
The maps look normal to me.. to get back on topic, for those with the fidgets.....just something to be interested in but not take to heart because they change..change is the only constant. If something is within three days, and it's hot, get worried, otherwise wait and see, and you won't get brain ants :)
 
Looks like the week if the 12th is shaping up like an interesting week.

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So should I be getting excited at what the 18z and now even better 00z Nam is showing for far northern Middle Tennessee tomorrow night? It looks like over an inch of snow if not more. 850s look good but temps seem a tad iffy when it first shows snow. Local forecast was calling for some backend Fluries and nothing more earlier today. I know Cold chasing moisture doesn’t usually work out to good.
 
As the Aleutian low intensifies during this Pacific MJO event, and we lose some of the downward wave activity flux from the WP high latitude block, look for the intense Greenland/Icelandic Vortex (+NAO) to give way to a more transient regime of quasi-periodic anticyclonic wave breaking from the North Atlantic which could provide more frequent, yet possibly temporary bouts of a neutral or negative NAO in weeks 2, 3, & possibly 4. I'm not saying we're going to have a persistent negative NAO by any means, but rather we will probably stop the bleeding and the NAO may be less positive in the coming weeks due to changes upstream over the Pacific and inherent connections between the Aleutian & Icelandic Low that are hastened in a La Nina where the northern hemisphere polar vortex is often stronger than normal and is able to effectively refract wave energy into the troposphere
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