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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
18Z GFS is ice for NC CAD areas
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Maybe the mountains only.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_16.png
 
Everything looks "Normal" to me for the entire Southeast. Yes we will have Cold Shots and the SER will make its presence known at times, it's just the in between where we cross our fingers and hope for the best. The sustained cold period just isn't going to happen, in my opinion, which is good cause as we all know, most systems are suppressed. Don't forget it's only the beginning of February and a lot of time left for a Winter Event.
 
From Mr James Spannakopida...
And, no sign of any long lasting, bitterly cold air around here for the next 10-15 days; cold pops will be fairly short lived, and temperatures will be pretty close to average through mid-February.
 
EPS looks pretty close to normal the first half of February for the SE US, below normal snow forecasted along/south of I-64, with above normal snow forecasted for the interior NE, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley.
eps_tsnow_a_conus_61.png
eps_t2ma_10d_conus_41.png
 
Spurs up said:
storm whats your opinion on Feb? think we torch or are models having hard time with pattern change?
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I've never bought in on a colder pattern that locks in for an extended period. I think it's gonna be highly volatile with cold shots here and there

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GaStorm said:
Wow that's no good Tony. Hope you make up for it with a big sleet storm before we close out the winter!
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Well, I've had some whopper spring storms, that Atl didn't get, so that's something, but the last good cold street sledding type storm was in the 90's, or early this century...I can see us sledding, but I can't place the storm. Thanks for your well wishes! I'm just trying to keep things in perspective for those that think it's going to be all gravy train all the time. In Ga. it's easy to get skunked, and there is not a damn thing you can do about it, but grin and bare it, or move, lol. I've seen my deepest snow down here, and my second worst ice storm, and thankfully, two of my top 5 sleet storms, but lately, not so much. Got an inch from the Xmas snow, and it didn't cover the ground. All the great Atl snows in the last 7 years gave me an inch or less. The lines dissipate as they pull thru here...but eventually the patterns will line up better, and the stuff will come thru here again. Just talked to the friend who went street sledding down the county road with me last time, and we figured that to have been in the late 90's. So the last storm I had that was deep enough, and with enough sleet to make sledding down a country road possible was in the 20 years ago range. I'm going to cry again, I think :)
 
There goes our snowpack : (image.png

BUT! Like I've been saying the NE looks to remain cold so still a good shot at a CAD event if we can get some blocking to set up. Ryan Maue seems to think this may happen
 
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