• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Storm5 said:
You must have missed the January cold......

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Well I almost forgot about that. I'm talking about now though. I wish we could wait until March and April for NINA climatology to set in and not screw us. I was hoping for a true big dog Miller A storm before winter was over. We can only hope we are blessed with a March 1960 repeat but whatever.
 
purty, ain't it?
ecmwf_z500a_us_10.png
 
In all honesty, this winter has absolutely been like 1989-1990..but with the extremely cold period being from December 25 to January 25 this year instead of being the entire month of December like it was during that time period. I feel like that this current stretch of warmth is very close to January/February 1990 style misery.
 
GaWx said:
The MDA mets have KATL averaging a whopping 10 warmer than normal over the next 15 days, which is the KATL normal for the end of March and early April!
Click to expand...
Holy hell lol. Thank goodness for all the rain lately and whats to come . Without all this rain the coming summer would be damn brutal

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
CentralGAColdFront said:
In all honesty, this winter has absolutely been like 1989-1990..but with the extremely cold period being from December 25 to January 25 this year instead of being the entire month of December like it was during that time period. I feel like that this current stretch of warmth is very close to January/February 1990 style misery.
Click to expand...

I'd also include 2000-2001 as a pretty good analog.
 
1300m said:
As feared, the MJO progression to phase 8 has not happened. It looks like the very thing most of us were all banking on to flip the pattern in late January looking forward will end up being one of the driving forces that prevents us from going back into a wintry pattern (MJO progression). Certainly a lot to be learned from this late winter, strong MJO Nina episode.

Ensembles remain in unison through another 10 days, bringing us to the last week of February now. Tick tock.
Click to expand...
Very good points. Tough one because we had the players on the field but the MJO gave us the bird. Hope we can still salvage something into March but if winter is truly over here, IMBY (which I think the fat lady is warming up) then I call a huge victory since we got about an inch of snow.
 
And if we can move into a weak nino, I’m curious to see about severe weather season
 
Today's GEFS suggests we'll likely only go down to pretty neutral as opposed to the strong -AO it had suggested on many day 14 forecasts of the last couple of weeks. There has been a strong (nearly -1) day 14 -AO bias when averaged out over the last 4 months.

The solid +PNA forecasted by the GEFS over the last couple of weeks at day 14 is turning out to be a huge bust.

Keep in mind that the GEFS has been keeping it in strong phase 7 for many forecast days but it is still busting badly on the AO and PNA.

Edited for typo.
 
Temps falling into the upper 30s tomorrow, with a stiff 20-25 mph breeze out of the NE! Great CAD tomorrow! Should feel a little colder after being near 70 today!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top