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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Webberweather53 said:
This is classic. As usual, the stereotypical NINA storm track comes to life late in the winter. I feel so stupid for even considering the cool/Fab February as a legitimate option, I knew sooner or later this would show up and we got lucky this year it didn't happen in January.
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Yep you were right 3 months ago ....

Currently 68 with A.C. blasting

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whatalife said:
Yep! You can turnout the lights on the SE. It was just a matter of time before this pattern showed up.


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Agreed. This large-scale pattern looks primed for severe weather in Dixie Alley/lower TN Valley in general, we obviously need the right triggers and individual systems to take advantage of this but we have the right kind of pattern to produce big early season tornado outbreaks.
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Webberweather53 said:
Agreed. This large-scale pattern looks primed for severe weather in Dixie Alley/lower TN Valley in general, we obviously need the right triggers and individual systems to take advantage of this but we have the right kind of pattern to produce big early season tornado outbreaks.
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No thank you ... :(
 
JHS said:
Both of the big models are getting drier for NC and SC outside of the mountains. This area and parts of GA will almost certainly hang on to the drought and see it worsen again over the next few weeks. It would not surprise me at all if everyone east of I-85 in the Carolinas get less than .50 total in rain over the next 2 weeks. So much for the big wet spell here.
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Yeah, my ground is cracking from the 9” of rain I’ve had the last 3 weeks! Please pray for rain! :weenie:
 
6FC81003-BE6B-4A4D-8A2F-3778A212DDE8.png Prepare for cool start to summer and the drought to end soon in TX! He also nailed Fab Feb in October o_O
 
This pitiful excuse for a La Niña is able to exert a typical La Niña late winter pattern. What a crock.

DT sux but he’s pretty funny.
 
Winter is done.as usual we have one good storm here, and that is it.
 
For Raleigh to finish below normal for winter, December through February, we have to average 8.5F above normal or less. The next 5 days look to average atleast +12 to +14F. Verbatim the EPS would put Raleigh beyond 8.5F above normal the next 15 days so that would put the winter itself above normal. Gives us something to track.
 
Tarheel1 said:
View attachment 3983 Prepare for cool start to summer and the drought to end soon in TX! He also nailed Fab Feb in October o_O
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Does he not know that analogs aren't exact pattern that repeat exactly the same, but are close instances of past weather to analyze possible future events? A lot has changed since October also, which means they are a lot less reliable.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Does he not know that analogs aren't exact pattern that repeat exactly the same, but are close instances of past weather to analyze possible future events? A lot has changed since October also, which means they are a lot less reliable.
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I don't think he also realizes that we're about to undergo a massive change in terms of ENSO the next 2-3 months, almost certainly headed towards neutral or perhaps even El Nino before or by the time summer kicks in which leads to wetter than normal conditions over Texas and summers (even early on) aren't that hot, granted they have a lot of work to do just to get to par for the course but it's possible.
 
I do think the upper south (really mainly North TN) could possibly see a round of snow next weekend, but south of there, that possibility is very shaky and even there...it's like maybe they'll see a coat of snow.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Agreed. This large-scale pattern looks primed for severe weather in Dixie Alley/lower TN Valley in general, we obviously need the right triggers and individual systems to take advantage of this but we have the right kind of pattern to produce big early season tornado outbreaks.
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So basically you were right all along from December. If even a PV split can't get cold to the South, what can? Pretty sad that it's so hard to get cold down here if you ask me. A PV split of that magnitude and a possible -nao and we still can't get cold, etc? That's pretty pathetic man. What do you think?
 
Clayton said:
So basically you were right all along from December. If even a PV split can't get cold to the South, what can? Pretty sad that it's so hard to get cold down here if you ask me. A PV split of that magnitude and a possible -nao and we still can't get cold, etc? That's pretty pathetic man. What do you think?
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You must have missed the January cold......

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