• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Shaggy said:
GEFS and EPS at this range will save some sanity. Going over 4 runs a day and freaking over each little shift for a week straight will lead to a straight jacket.
Click to expand...
Couldn’t agree more. Trying to dissect the surface map on the GFS 10 days out is crazy, especially when we just saw an example this weekend how wrong it was from its look 3 days out. If the charts were to be close to accurate at that time with a high over the Great Lakes, low near Panama City and an Arctic airmass in place out ahead with those low dewpoints, I would be shocked if it didn’t produce a major winter storm for most of the Carolinas. Even if the low moves NE from Panama City, there would be a big CAD in place that it would go around or transfer to a coastal in hybrid Miller A/B. Again though no reason to live and die by each op run over a week out.
 
Chazwin said:
Couldn’t agree more. Trying to dissect the surface map on the GFS 10 days out is crazy, especially when we just saw an example this weekend how wrong it was from its look 3 days out. If the charts were to be close to accurate at that time with a high over the Great Lakes, low near Panama City and an Arctic airmass in place out ahead with those low dewpoints, I would be shocked if it didn’t produce a major winter storm for most of the Carolinas. Even if the low moves NE from Panama City, there would be a big CAD in place that it would go around or transfer to a coastal in hybrid Miller A/B. Again though no reason to live and die by each op run over a week out.
Click to expand...
Especially considering how many changes we had even with 3 days lead time with our storm last week.
 
deltadog03 said:
Well, and if we put any snow cover on the ground many will see there coldest temps in some time for sure.
Click to expand...

Personally, I like the pattern setup. The right players are on the field. That's 75% of the battle here. Best chance to score a snow maker in the next 14 days in my opinion.
 
deltadog03 said:
There is the "famous" "hockey stick" look that JB used/still does harp on about a good look to the pattern for cold and snow.
I don't know the last time we have seen this look, to be honest.

View attachment 69859
Click to expand...

I don’t think I’ve ever seen this look, at least not in the mid-range. Good grief a strong -NAO and a +PNA with the PV dropping in. Wow.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top