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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

SD said:
Yeah but not too long ago the op was way cooler than the mean and majority of the members. As a whole the pattern is incredibly touchy and pushing one domino changes the entire run
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Its interesting for sure. No consensus quite yet
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
So this pattern has gone to s&&&?
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NO!!! Big snow in NC!!
gfs_asnow_us_65.png
 
tennessee storm said:
Called global warming. Better known as climate change face it its real. And watch the 12zgfs today start to cave to the euro
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I bet the folks in Kansas and Nebraska don't call it global warming.... maybe we put too much stock in neg nao, neg Ao etc.and ... may be we get cold after all?
 
BufordWX said:
Mega bust on the temperatures around here today. Had a forecast high in the mid to upper 40s and so far haven’t gotten out of the mid 30s. They have even had to issue a WWA for light freezing rain/freezing drizzle accumulations just to my north due to the colder temperatures. Lol
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Gonna be another temperature bust for today it looks like. Forecast yesterday had a high near 50 for today but they have already lowered it to 40 which might still be too high as the HRRR has us dropping into the 20s shortly after sunrise as the arctic fronts move through. On another note I wouldn’t be surprised to be added to the WWA as the HRRR has several hours of light freezing rain and freezing drizzle falling with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. Fun weather around OKC!
 
I’m honestly not sure if this means anything for anyone later, but this arctic air mass is greatly over performing right now in the southern plains. The euro is busting way way too warm. It has OKC at 31 by 6:00 and it is currently 22 right now. Even the GFS is too warm. The Hrrr also has a low in the mid teens tonight. Again, I’m not sure if this means anything for others to the east, but it might be something to watch in coming days.
 
BufordWX said:
I’m honestly not sure if this means anything for anyone later, but this arctic air mass is greatly over performing right now in the southern plains. The euro is busting way way too warm. It has OKC at 31 by 6:00 and it is currently 22 right now. Even the GFS is too warm. Again I’m not sure if this means anything for others to the east, but it might be something to watch in coming days.
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It could mean it is digging deeper which actually suggests more ridging in the east . Especially Atlantic south east .
 
Lickwx said:
How so? If the trough further west digs deeper wouldn’t the downstream affect by physics alone be more ridging further east? I could be oversimplifying it of course .
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Because you are making an assumption that increased LL cold=deeper trough but they aren't 1:1 correlators. If buford had said 500mb heights on the OUN sounding are verifying lower then you could have said that might lead to more downstream ridging
 
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