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Pattern February Discussion

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They both, GFS and ECMWF form secondary lows along the gulf with high pressure moving in from the nw. A good trend and a setup that could merit a quality winter event for some of us.


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bouncycorn said:
They both, GFS and ECMWF form secondary lows along the gulf with high pressure moving in from the nw. A good trend and a setup that could merit a quality winter event for some of us.


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The only thing in question is the warm air the low is pulling in. That would cause severe weather somewhere, and if the cold was south 200 miles, the northern end would get snow, but we would have to worry a bit about warm noses since there isn't a high to the north of us when that low comes though, only in Missouri. But regardless, I do believe that 12Z will be another change, just let's hope it is towards a snow event rather than a severe one.
ecmwf_T850_seus_9.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
The only thing in question is the warm air the low is pulling in. That would cause severe weather somewhere, and if the cold was south 200 miles, the northern end would get snow, but we would have to worry a bit about warm noses since there isn't a high to the north of us when that low comes though, only in Missouri. But regardless, I do believe that 12Z will be another change, just let's hope it is towards a snow event rather than a severe one.
ecmwf_T850_seus_9.png
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Yeah if the initial low continues to trend north and the high moves in quickly then the secondary will probably trend further south.


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I see some are trying to find a needle in the haystack...Which I hope is found and comes true...


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whatalife said:
I see some are trying to find a needle in the haystack...Which I hope is found and comes true...


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Yep, right now there is nothing that really looks promising unless there is something dramatic change. A flat flow is not going to get it done. The system on the 9-10th is hardly cold and lags behind the moisture if it gets here at all.
 
metwannabe said:
Lol nice.... but hey Friday is looking a tad more interesting for us, not much but it's something
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Can't say that I'm not excited about the south trend of the models but I know the damn 4k NAM will win and this will be north of me. Should give us something to talk about on the live show though
 
SD said:
Can't say that I'm not excited about the south trend of the models but I know the damn 4k NAM will win and this will be north of me. Should give us something to talk about on the live show though
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To quote you.... oh so close

6c536bdc5f956dc263d44c0dc9ab50f7.jpg


389c22619cea1b9405527bc46089f02e.jpg


Looks like some of that would be zr.

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SD said:
Can't say that I'm not excited about the south trend of the models but I know the damn 4k NAM will win and this will be north of me. Should give us something to talk about on the live show though
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It this trends warmer or north I'm assuming the live show would not be family friendly?! Lol
 
What came to my mind is that if it becomes a winter storm it will be a good one. If the timing is right, the winter storm will be coming into an unstable airmass from the severe weather. The snow will be heavy, dense and wet. Keep in mind that, the timing has to be just right for it to come in while the air mass is still unstable. If it doesn't come in while the airmass is still unstable it can still be able to produce some decent snow. Can you image severe weather to a winter storm?

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png
much better low placement, need further south to match up with euro
 
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