Pattern February Discussion

[whatalife]

Let's see - it's all forecasts and computers, but what is it suggesting?
MJO into 8? in 8 - 10 days?
NAO going negative in 10 to 11 days?
PNA going positive in 8 -10 days?
WPO going positive in about 12 days?
EPO going positive in a week?

Line those marbles up and shoot the ring - maybe ....

and Edit:

http://www.southernwx.com/community/threads/banter-venting-thread.11/page-19#post-15397

Here's to hoping!


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[pcbjr]

Here's to hoping!


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it's weather - what else is there to do, except maybe

 

[Tarheel1]

Agreed.... February hasn't even begun yet and as volatile as the pattern is, I wouldn't rule anything out. By the way, I will never trust the weeklies, they have failed us too many times to count.

Yeah, the weeklies do really seem to suck!! I remember when we were looking for them for any kind of hope for cold the last few years and it would show cold coming in the later weeks , only to never happen!! Maybe this torch will not materialize

 

[ForsythSnow]

Yeah, the weeklies do really seem to suck!! I remember when we were looking for them for any kind of hope for cold the last few years and it would show cold coming in the later weeks , only to never happen!! Maybe this torch will not materialize

That's the spirit! Let's hope that the 0Z is a great run tonight! I expect something new again.

 

[$alt]

If that's the case why do some forecasters, Jame Spann for instance, tend to base their forecast on the GFS ?

I don't know, or know anything about the guy to be honest. Maybe it handles severe better for his market.

 

[SD]

Oh so close

 

[$alt]

Im curious about the severe weather threat for next week. Can somebody please elaborate some details?

A thread is likely coming soon if modeling holds onto it.

 

[SD]

A thread is likely coming soon if modeling holds onto it.

Yep good chance of a thread and the pattern would certainly support some severe weather across the region with a lot left to be ironed out

 

[SoutheastRidge]

It would be crazy if we ended up getting more severe weather in the winter than in the spring.

 

[pcbjr]

and from JB (fwiw this late at night) lol

 

[Snowfan]

If the severe weather is still modeled within 5 days of the event, I could start a topic.

 

[whatalife]

and from JB (fwiw this late at night) lol

If he ever predicted a warm winter we'd go into the tundra...LOL!


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[SnowHusky]

and from JB (fwiw this late at night) lol

This is good, still sticking with my original prediction.

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[pcbjr]

If he ever predicted a warm winter we'd go into the tundra...LOL!


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i said "fwiw" - but at least he's looking at Phase 8

 

[SD]

4k NAM is 35/23 here at 12z Friday....must not get sucked in....

 

[BHS1975]

NAM nailed the last one.


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[SD]

NAM nailed the last one.


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Unfortunately our 850s have already veered out of the SW and we are at +1-2c so we would be looking at rain or sleet(less likely) possibly changing to freezing rain or sleet if we can wet bulb the surface. The 12k nam is just warm enough for all rain. It's such a close call and one that will probably give the Roxboro to South hill something wintry

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[ATLwxfan]

I smell an hour 300 fantasy storm at 00z


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[SnowHusky]

Got coffee brewing and I'll be cranking up some music for the 0z. Wanted dead or alive is the first song I'm gonna play tonight.

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[bouncycorn]

00z GFS looks plenty different even @90 hrs


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