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Pattern February Discussion

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Yeah not sure any impact really on first system in regards to winter outloom but definitely different
 
Yup, 0z GFS is noticeably different than it's 18z run...it noticeably different with the 12z Euro OP as well.

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Still looking severe-esk for next Tuesday though. But this run goes to show how volatile each run is even 5 days out.

Probably a trash run.


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0z GFS is faster than it's 18z run and faster than 12z Euro OP

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Phil in Gainesville gets a near freeze 2/11 after a high on 2/10 only near 50 per the 0Z GFS.
 
Who wants to start the severe threat thead? I know it's a tad out there, but it's far more likely than a Winter storm.
 
Fwiw, the 0z GEFS is the coldest run for the 6-10 period in a couple of days. Also, the 11-15 is looking halfway decent as far as it looking rather chilly with an upper trough.
 
So, how did the 0z GFS show two cutters? The 0z CMC is little bit better at first but it has that second system catching up. That second cutter on the 0z GFS was supposed to be our winter storm maker.

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I'll take a quick look at the 500 MB maps and trough maps but I think the reason why it cuts is because there is no eastern trough.

Edit: yep. flat flow will be a cutter no matter what, there is a way of fixing this but it's doubtful it happens. with the strength of the pacific this is going to be a pattern that favors cutters.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'll take a quick look at the 500 MB maps and trough maps but I think the reason why it cuts is because there is no eastern trough.

Edit: yep. flat flow will be a cutter no matter what, there is a way of fixing this but it's doubtful it happens. with the strength of the pacific this is going to be a pattern that favors cutters.
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Would the energy/threats even be coming in without the setup though?

Man, this does blow, but all is not lost yet. The first half of Feb will likely suck, but we can score as the pattern shifts by Mid-Month. All it takes is for a boardwide 3-5 inch snow/sleet event + to make many happy.
 
Better look up at 500mb on 0z Euro OP. That's our winter storm over CO. Hopefully that first system will push it further south at the same time the cold air is moving in from the NW.
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Edit: NICE! Way better improvement. Just need the low little further south.

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I'll be damned. That is a big change NorthGAWinterWx.
 
Still warm for the majority of the SE, but it was nice to see the Low "disconnect" and try to get organized better for us down here.
 
Shawn said:
I'll be damned. That is a big change NorthGAWinterWx.
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Yes indeed it's a big change...that's what I've been wanting to see. I'd like to see that first system little further north and east to allow that colder air to get in here. If that doesn't work then the second system may come in here at the same time the cold air does. Timing is crucial.

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