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Pattern February Discussion

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DaculaWeather said:
Yep, right now there is nothing that really looks promising unless there is something dramatic change. A flat flow is not going to get it done. The system on the 9-10th is hardly cold and lags behind the moisture if it gets here at all.
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I agree 100 percent. The flow is WAY too flat and progressive. IF IF we had a better western ridge I'd be a little more interested in the 8-10 period. But as of now , other than a possible brief burst of backside snow it looks very meh
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this look won't get it done. need a taller ridge to START with

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
What came to my mind is that if it becomes a winter storm it will be a good one. If the timing is right, the winter storm will be coming into an unstable airmass from the severe weather. The snow will be heavy, dense and wet. Keep in mind that, the timing has to be just right for it to come in while the air mass is still unstable. If it doesn't come in while the airmass is still unstable it can still be able to produce some decent snow. Can you image severe weather to a winter storm?

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not trying to be rude, but can you maybe explain this statement a different way cause it makes zero sense from a meteorological standpoint

Maybe I just didn't get enough sleep last night

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Storm5 said:
not trying to be rude, but can you maybe explain this statement a different way cause it makes zero sense from a meteorological standpoint

Maybe I just didn't get enough sleep last night

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Makes no sense to me. I call that simple speculation and wishcasting. You can't infer any of that based on anything that the models are showing right now.
 
Storm5 said:
not trying to be rude, but this statement makes zero sense from a meteorological standpoint

Maybe I just didn't get enough sleep last night

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Elevated convection I believe is the right term. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

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Good news for -AO watchers: today's GEFS mean prediction is even more negative than yesterday's. Despite the actual having been nearly +2 the last couple of days, which is the highest in over a month, the day 7 mean forecast is for a plunge to -1.4, which is the lowest day 7 forecast since ones made in mid Nov! The bias correction at day 7 is only +0.2, meaning a forecast after taking into account bias of -1.2. Rather high confidence.

Day 10: forecast mean is -1.6. After bias adjustment: -1.0. Confidence plunges to very low due to individual members varying between +2.5 and -4!

Day 14: forecast mean has dropped to -1.0. After bias adjustment, it is near 0. Individual members range from +0.5 and -3.5. So, low confidence.
 
GaWx said:
Good news for -AO watchers: today's GEFS mean prediction is even more negative than yesterday's. Despite the actual having been nearly +2 the last couple of days, which is the highest in over a month, the day 7 mean forecast is for a plunge to -1.4, which is the lowest day 7 forecast since ones made in mid Nov! The bias correction at day 7 is only +0.2, meaning a forecast after taking into account bias of -1.2. Rather high confidence.

Day 10: forecast mean is -1.6. After bias adjustment: -1.0. Confidence plunges to very low due to individual members varying between +2.5 and -4!

Day 14: forecast mean has dropped to -1.0. After bias adjustment, it is near 0. Individual members range from +0.5 and -3.5. So, low confidence.
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If only...


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Well at least the 06z GEFS had a big fantasy storm within day 15. Didn't at 12z yesterday through day 16.

I'd like to note it was predominantly snow for AL, GA, SC, NC, TN.
 
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whatalife said:
If only...


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Based on the plunge in AO forecast confidence between day 7 (Feb. 8) and day 10 (Feb. 11) due to an unusually high spread of AO solutions among members at day 10 (ranging from +2.5 to -4), I think this means that the upcoming GFS operational runs once past day 7 are liable to vary even more than usual and that the 8-12 day forecast is going to be even more difficult than usual to pin down. Look for continued wild swings in operational models.

GEFS AO forecast: (look at how varied are the day 10 members) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
 
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GaWx said:
Based on the plunge in AO forecast confidence between day 7 (Feb. 8) and day 10 (Feb. 11) due to an unusually high spread of solutions among members, I think this means that the upcoming GFS operational runs once past day 7 are liable to vary even more than usual and that the 8-12 day forecast is going to be even more difficult than usual to pin down. Look for continued wild swings in operational models.
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The last time the AO took a dive we had a winter storm. Would be nice to start seeing something show up soon.
 
GaWx said:
Based on the plunge in AO forecast confidence between day 7 (Feb. 8) and day 10 (Feb. 11) due to an unusually high spread of AO solutions among members at day 10 (ranging from +2.5 to -4), I think this means that the upcoming GFS operational runs once past day 7 are liable to vary even more than usual and that the 8-12 day forecast is going to be even more difficult than usual to pin down. Look for continued wild swings in operational models.

GEFS AO forecast: (look at how varied are the day 10 members) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
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Thanks Larry.


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The teleconnections don't look that bad. The ensemble NAO starts trending negative after the 5th-6th. With the looks we've been having on the models, we should see something good!

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
The teleconnections don't look that bad. The ensemble NAO starts trending negative after the 5th-6th. With the looks we've been having on the models, we should see something good!

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NAO looks to stay positive, but the AO is looking to go pretty negative, with the PNA and EPO to go fairly positive - might all work out to be a trigger mechanism. The MJO is also stilled progged to get strongly in Ph 8. Not a bad look IMHO
 
pcbjr said:
NAO looks to stay positive, but the AO is looking to go pretty negative, with the PNA and EPO to go fairly positive - might all work out to be a trigger mechanism. The MJO is also stilled progged to get strongly in Ph 8. Not a bad look IMHO
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Yes, the NAO stays positive but it's a weak positive. I'd take that instead of a strong positive NAO.

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CMC agrees with the NAM that is a NC/VA deal mainly but it trended slightly cooler aloft and had a little more QPF
 
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