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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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pcbjr said:
One "solution" I'll gaurandamntee you is no frozen precip in N FL this year (and it's been years at least to have had nada)
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I gotta say I admire how much you are into the weather this time of year given how far south you are. I love weather also but mostly I love winter weather. Once mid march hits I'm silent on all weather boards except for one or two posts until the next winter comes.
 
Here is some details of what I think may occur with the trends we have been seeing on the models. I put the favorable track of low between where the GFS is putting the track of low, and where the latest Euro is putting the track of low. I think the low will be going on that suppression track at first, but then I think it will go further north as the low progresses east. The reason why I think that is because, the vortex is coming down over the lakes and then it pushes east, when that occurs, it will allow for the low to come further north as it also pushes east. As of right now, I don't think we'll see a phase. The Euro is close at a phase cause it has the two pieces moving at the same time. GFS has the ULL hanging back while the vortex pushes east and then it gets kicked out and sheared. Still worth keeping an eye on, on the two pieces phasing.
Track_of_low_map.jpg
 
olhausen said:
I gotta say I admire how much you are into the weather this time of year given how far south you are. I love weather also but mostly I love winter weather. Once mid march hits I'm silent on all weather boards except for one or two posts until the next winter comes.
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weather allows a chance to think in a non-linear fashion - i deal with linear facts and truths all day (half of them made up and i have to separate them - but they are provable facts, whereas weather is more take facts and derive possibilities) - so sorting out is 2nd nature, i suppose - if this makes any sense ??? - LOL

plus - weather is cathartic - no one gets a win or lose based on my "interpretation"
 
SD said:
At this point I think all solutions are still on the table minus cutting west of the apps

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Although very few solutions give us snow. We seem to be stuck with cold and suppressed or wet and warm. That's what we're probably looking at.


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olhausen said:
I gotta say I admire how much you are into the weather this time of year given how far south you are. I love weather also but mostly I love winter weather. Once mid march hits I'm silent on all weather boards except for one or two posts until the next winter comes.
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2nd reply -
I'll give you my summer forecast for MBY - starting June 1st and going until Sept 20th - 90º - 96º during the day - 70º - 76º at night (depending on t'storms) with a 60% chance of a boomer any given afternoon/evening - no variation - they'll probably ban me by June 15th if I start posting on that daily routine; but I do study tropics and called both Fla 'canes way out in advance this year - so I may get banned on my silly thoughts on that topic come August -- LOL
 
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from wxsouth:
In today's blog update, I skipped right past the warm, sunny, gorgeous weekend/Monday time frame--we've had enough of that this Winter. Instead, it deals with what may or may not, happen next Wednesday, Thursday or Friday. Models are all very interesting and there's a lot going on. Suddenly , we have Greenland Blocking and Western US /Canada tall ridging showing up, that meet up eventually. Underneath, that spells a cool down in the East, and part of the Southeast, for that time frame, and the big question deals with how to handle the ejection of the Southwest upper low. Is the GFS model too far south? Is the European Model too fast? Its too early to know just yet, only specuation. wxsouth.com


Image: Next Wednesday surface from Euro Model Showing Southeast Low Pressure (PivotalWeather.com
16508268_800381613449475_2661395445152234639_n.png



)
 
based on todays 12z euro day 9 and 10... talking about one powerfull pacific jet its advertising... 160kts... with a big trough digging deep in the sw corner... could be some trouble brewing down the road... not winter weather either...
 
tennessee storm said:
based on todays 12z euro day 9 and 10... talking about one powerfull pacific jet its advertising... 160kts... with a big trough digging deep in the sw corner... could be some trouble brewing down the road... not winter weather either...
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precisely ...
 
tennessee storm said:
based on todays 12z euro day 9 and 10... talking about one powerfull pacific jet its advertising... 160kts... with a big trough digging deep in the sw corner... could be some trouble brewing down the road... not winter weather either...
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usually in winter, these type of setups lead to Severe/winter weather solutions combo, but our luck just plane severe
 
Out of 39 major SN/IP at ATL, I counted 6 (15% of them) with 1025 mb or weaker peak high pressure in the C/E US. Interestingly, all 6 were during El Nino. Note that they were primarily late winter events and two of them were during mid Feb.:

2/12/2010, 1/22/1987, 2/26/1952, 3/2/1942, 3/14/1924, and 2/12-14/1885

So, it has happened a fair number of times though clearly 1030-1040 mb are preferred and we're not in El Nino this winter.
 
GaWx said:
Out of 39 major SN/IP at ATL, I counted 6 (15% of them) with 1025 mb or weaker peak high pressure in the C/E US. Interestingly, all 6 were during El Nino. Note that they were primarily late winter events and two of them were during mid Feb.:

2/12/2010, 1/22/1987, 2/26/1952, 3/2/1942, 3/14/1924, and 2/12-14/1885

So, it has happened a fair number of times though clearly 1030-1040 mb are preferred and we're not in El Nino this winter.
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Thanks for the research even though it's disappointing. You are indeed sir, the man
 
I researched the PNA and EPO this evening for the 16 major ATL SN/IP since 1948:

Of the 16, 9 had a solidly +PNA (>+0.5), 5 were neutral (-0.5 to +0.5), and 2 were solidly -PNA (<-0.5). The average PNA was +0.4. Median was +0.7.

Of the 16, 4 had a solidly -EP0 (<-100), 10 were neutral (-100 to +100), and 2 were solidly +EPO (>+100). The average EPO was -43 and the median was -34.
 
bouncycorn said:
One thing that concerns me is that the GEFS members show very little if any snow.


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That's the last thing I'd be concerned about. They were unanimously showing me getting 10" of snow while the rain was pouring down.
 
If the 0z GFS has snow on this run, I'm going to go ahead and get my pen ready to sign up...if it shows some snow, I'll sign up partially lol

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SD said:
There might not but the GFS is the deepest and farthest SW with the NE trough.

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It almost always is. I do not expect the ULL to dissipate. I do not expect the surface low to cross central or southern FL. I do expect the northern part of the precip shield to "expand" as we get closer. I do expect there to be issues with cold air. Phasing is a huge wild card and would bring to the table a host of favorable and unfavorable solutions.
 
ForsythSnow said:
How about suppression to Key West? That's where I think it will head this upcoming run. Hope I am wrong!
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I don't think it will end up that far south, I mean it could, if the vortex came further south which the vortex won't come down into the SE.

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I'd be perfectly ok with another suppressed look as long as it's not caught in the vortex/eastern trough again. It's too early for the north trend to start for my taste but I don't really want to see another south trend.

preference would be for the track to stay put in south central FL for a while, and for a slow trend north starting on Sunday.
 
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