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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Here's what the GFS showed 6 days before the January system.


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Suppression doesn't bother me, but this is about my limit as well. Like, I'd sign off on a look like this holding until Monday and for a slow NW adjustment to occur after it. I doubt we see a major change (as in a change to a cutter) unless we lose the PV but I doubt the PV is going to be as strong as depicted.
 
I'm with ya Jon, ULL needs to hold together. Starts off great then loses its structure allowing for a south solution, I still believe like Charlie was saying, expect wild solution over the next 72 hrs. I bet NW starts soon
 
Jon said:
We desperately need the ULL to stay together over TX...otherwise there won't be a NW trend, it will be a suppressed rainstorm for good.
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I think Larry earlier today mentioned something about there may not be a NW trend this time.


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It's a week out and much can and will change... 3 days ago the GFS had me, way down here, with a few hard freezes ... now based on current runs, if i see 39º after tonight, no model is even suggesting it. Point being - IMHO - we just finished an 18Z run (and I emphasize - 18Z) and there's more to come with new data and new solutions - just hang in there (eternal optimism). But watch the Pac - it's the driver and until it lets the grip go, we're up and down I think -- OK - off the soap box ....
 
If you believe in the NW trend the gfs being too flat and too dominant with the trough in the NE would mean in the end the low and precip shield would be farther north. It will be fun to watch the models attempt to resolve the flow across the NE ans resultant effect on the cutoff. Who knows where this goes really. I don't see a lot of agreement on the NE trough and pieces of energy moving south through it

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Storm5 said:
which in reality , a NW trend also means a warmer solution vs the colder suppressed ones of late . I'm still pulling for a phase

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Speaking for mby we have a little wiggle room. The Euro nearly gave you your phase.

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SD said:
Speaking for mby we have a little wiggle room. The Euro nearly gave you your phase.

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yes yall do . I need a complete capture not a " nearly " solution

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Storm5 said:
yes yall do . I need a complete capture not a " nearly " solution

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At this point I think all solutions are still on the table minus cutting west of the apps

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SD said:
At this point I think all solutions are still on the table minus cutting west of the apps

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One "solution" I'll gaurandamntee you is no frozen precip in N FL this year (and it's been years at least to have had nada)
 
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