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Pattern February Discussion part 3. Don's Winter Storm Hunt

Shawn said:
C5_Hy_Hm_KXUAEq12n_jpg_large.jpg
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Not only the effects here on Earth that causes the warmth. I think it has to do with solar minimum as well. This winter, there wasn't any solar minimum, meaning there was a lot of solar activity. I'm going to have a video soon talking about the solar minimum soon.

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Shawn said:
Yeah, a long time ago, Accuweather bought out the "Weather Model Animator" and turned it into their own thing. I do hope Ryan eventually gets his modeling links laid out better. Anyways, here is an example of the original weather model animator that accuweather have taken control of for their modeling page. At least, it used to be along these lines:

http://justin.wiscwx.com/
http://justin.wiscwx.com/
I have the original code/scripts to it and was thinking about setting something up with modeling from tidbits, wxcaster, noaa etc... but it's old now and I think I can do something better with new technologies out there.
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Yeah, that animator makes things quick and easy. I love that animator, makes it eaiser to come up with a forecast instead of clicking this and that trying to look at all the models. Lol.

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Folks,
We may be about to make history. The calendar week 2/19-25/2017 is forecasted by the GFS to have only 93 US home heating customer weighted gas home heating degree days, which would be a whopping 94 DD's below normal for that week!!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/hfstwpws.txt

That is the normal for 4/11-17!! The 94 DD's below average would be the warmest anomaly for the US for ANY calendar week on that basis at least back to 1994! A word of caution, however. For some reason, there has in recent years been about a 10 or so bias too low with these forecasts. So, if that bias verifies, the actual DD's may "only" end up around 84 below normal for that week. Even that would be the normal for 4/5-11 and the warmest anomaly since the 87 below normal DD anomaly of 1/6-12/2007!

I plan to update this around this time next week to see what ends up verifying for this week. Exciting times even though this isn't what most of us want (I sure don't)!

To clarify, this wouldn't necessarily be the warmest in the SE, alone, since it is nationally based though it would be quite warm in the SE.
 
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GaWx said:
Folks,
We may be about to make history. The calendar week 2/19-25/2017 is forecasted by the GFS to have only 93 US home heating customer weighted gas home heating degree days, which would be a whopping 94 DD's below normal for that week!!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/hfstwpws.txt

That is the normal for 4/11-17!! The 94 DD's below average would be the warmest anomaly for the US for ANY calendar week on that basis at least back to 1994! A word of caution, however. For some reason, there has in recent years been about a 10 or so bias too low with these forecasts. So, if that bias verifies, the actual DD's may "only" end up around 84 below normal for that week. Even that would be the normal for 4/5-11 and the warmest anomaly since the 87 below normal DD anomaly of 1/6-12/2007!

I plan to update this around this time next week to see what ends up verifying for this week. Exciting times even though this isn't what most of us want (I sure don't)!
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My gas bill appreciates this
 
Further to my above post, the 43 forecasted gas weighted HDD's for the south Atlantic states would be the normal for 4/22-28!! It could possibly be the largest negative CDD anomaly at least since 1994 for that area, alone, although it would take forever to verify that, which I won't do. However, I did peak at 1/6-12/2007 for the S Atlantic states and the current week's forecast anomaly would be warmer by a pretty good margin!
 
GaWx said:
Further to my above post, the 43 forecasted gas weighted HDD's for the south Atlantic states would be the normal for 4/22-28!! It could possibly be the largest negative CDD anomaly at least since 1994 for that area, alone, although it would take forever to verify that, which I won't do. However, I did peak at 1/6-12/2007 for the S Atlantic states and the current week's forecast would be warmer by a pretty good margin!
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in other words - summer .... (????)
Pretty good bet

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_12z/tloop.html
 
I see the gfs is shifting northwest with the low Friday.....it doesn't just happen to us

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I don't think I have ever cut my grass in February but I think I may have to this weekend.


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Storm5 said:
After the article you sent me I hope your mower breaks and your grass is four feet high ......
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It's just another shark eating another shark...Phil should be more concerned then you considering it happened off the coast of Florida...LOL!


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whatalife said:
It's just another shark eating another shark...Phil should be more concerned then you considering it happened off the coast of Florida...LOL!


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i wish i knew what the heck it is you're talking about and what concerns i should have ... o_O!!!!!
 
Webberweather53 said:
On this date in 1979 the famous President's Day snowstorm hit the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic... What a beauty.
View attachment 191



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Feb-17-19-1979-Presidents-Day-Snowstorm-NARR-Animation.gif
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My all-time favorite snowstorm. It was amazing to go from sunny skies with temperatures in the low seventies on Friday to wind-blown heavy snow with temperatures in the low teens on Sunday. Being out of school for the week and epic sledding made it all the more impressive.
Feb_1979_Paper.jpg
 
Fantasy snow showing up again and on March 9th no doubt! I know, it won't be there on the next run.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png
 
pcbjr said:
in other words - summer .... (????)
Pretty good bet

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_12z/tloop.html
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Well, I'm going to be close the hitting 80 in Feb, or might hit it, so that's summer for sure. I do like the end of the gfs. That seems like a normal whiplash to 80 in Feb. Anomalous heat can breed anomalous storms, and mid March is famous for at least one, lol. I'm getting out my sleet tires! T
 
dsaur said:
Well, I'm going to be close the hitting 80 in Feb, or might hit it, so that's summer for sure. I do like the end of the gfs. That seems like a normal whiplash to 80 in Feb. Anomalous heat can breed anomalous storms, and mid March is famous for at least one, lol. I'm getting out my sleet tires! T
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Go for it Tony! ;) Got my wading boots on here today ... LOL
 
Storm5 said:
After the article you sent me I hope your mower breaks and your grass is four feet high ......
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I've had hard woods leafing out since the 3rd week in Jan, and now it's full on spring here. Blooms everywhere, all the trees leafing out. Never seen it this bad this early. I was cutting grass yesterday, and I'm still trying to get the fall leaves up, lol. Nothing like raking fall leaves in summer heat. I'm pretty sure it's the end of the world. The only thing that can save us now is Blizzard redux!!
 
The blueberry bushes in my backyard are about to be full bloom and there are bees around. This is at a minimum, two weeks early.
 
pcbjr said:
Go for it Tony! ;) Got my wading boots on here today ... LOL
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Phil, it's the only saving grace for a missing winter...plenty of rains. And it's actually been cold enough on occasion. It was 27 here the other night, but no timing. Now it's raining again but it's summer again too, lol. Had the window open on me last night. To night it's the fan, and Friday the air conditioning....and it's still Feb. Nawww.. that can't be right...must be more of those flash backs!
 
Ok, this is hugely badly bad. My Japanese Maple, usually a sensible tree has new full growth leaves on a limb, and buds on the rest. Just came out in the last two days. When the ornamentals start leafing out in Feb., it's trouble for sure. This guy never has leaves on until April. Now I'm expecting two days, at least, down around 0.... my trees have been in communication with Phil's trees, and it ain't with smoke signals. Psychic trees is something all together different It's a neon sign flashing, "Warning, expect anomalous storm"....or "The Summer When Everyone Expires"...lol.
 
dsaur said:
Ok, this is hugely badly bad. My Japanese Maple, usually a sensible tree has new full growth leaves on a limb, and buds on the rest. Just came out in the last two days. When the ornamentals start leafing out in Feb., it's trouble for sure. This guy never has leaves on until April. Now I'm expecting two days, at least, down around 0.... my trees have been in communication with Phil's trees, and it ain't with smoke signals. Psychic trees is something all together different It's a neon sign flashing, "Warning, expect anomalous storm"....or "The Summer When Everyone Expires"...lol.
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I've got some Japanese plants that have been blooming way too early too. The freeze is coming. :|
 
dsaur said:
I was looking for pine pollen today. If we get pine pollen in Feb, it is officially the end of the world...or the early signs of the next ice age...I can never remember which :)
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hardwood; pine is just starting to set now -- so you can relax, at least about the apocalypse ;)

but if you want "tree porn" - all the live oaks have gone "naked" here this week ... LOL
 
All I'm talking to myself about today is will it hit 80? It's 74 at 11:30. Hit 78 yesterday. The Japanese Maple put out more leaves over night. About a tenth is in leaves now. It'll be full on covered in a few days at this rate. Hope it's ready for an early fall freeze in March :) T
 
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