pcbjr
Member
Yup - radiational capital of the SE
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern February Discussion part 3. Don's Winter Storm Hunt
- Thread starter Storm5
- Start date
You might be in a good spot late in the month and the first of March
Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
olhausen
Member
Hopefully I can pull off a march miracle! Tennessee actually gets quite a few early march snows. Not necessarily in my backyard every time but I can recall quite a few over the ten years I've lived here. Last one I had was 5 inches the first week of march back in 2015.
Edit: It was melted in 2 days but that's how it goes in march.
Stormlover
Member
don't worry, no one but God can do that
pcbjr
Member
I'm not worried - hence the frown ... get my point?don't worry, no one but God can do that
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We're almost at the time of the year where practically every oncoming Cp &/or arctic airmass needs to be monitored for severe wx...
Jon
Member
Euro weeklies looked surprisingly good yesterday, didn't see anyone post about them
The second week of March looks the best, but during the first week of March the west coast trough rolls east due to a strong -EPO. A SE Ridge pops but it eventually gets beat down during the first week of March. Week 2 of march looks good starting around 3/6 onward. It's also really cold, with strongly neg anoms around Hudson Bay, the coldest air is on our side of the globe...that's good.
I've been fooled by the weeklies before and given how this winter has gone I'm very hesitant in predicting any kind of sustainable pattern, even for 10 days or so. Getting another -EPO pattern like early January that spawned the Jan storm isn't out of the question, but I doubt we see sustained cold and stormy, for obvious reasons. The early Jan storm had a -EPO with a SE ridge that many were worried about, but it wasn't strong and actually helped NC cash in on that storm...sometimes SE ridges are good as long as they aren't overwhelmingly strong and are centered in the Atlantic.
We will likely see the Euro get in range to this pattern in the next 3 days or so, and we'll see how it goes. Cautiously optimistic is the phrase!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The second week of March looks the best, but during the first week of March the west coast trough rolls east due to a strong -EPO. A SE Ridge pops but it eventually gets beat down during the first week of March. Week 2 of march looks good starting around 3/6 onward. It's also really cold, with strongly neg anoms around Hudson Bay, the coldest air is on our side of the globe...that's good.
I've been fooled by the weeklies before and given how this winter has gone I'm very hesitant in predicting any kind of sustainable pattern, even for 10 days or so. Getting another -EPO pattern like early January that spawned the Jan storm isn't out of the question, but I doubt we see sustained cold and stormy, for obvious reasons. The early Jan storm had a -EPO with a SE ridge that many were worried about, but it wasn't strong and actually helped NC cash in on that storm...sometimes SE ridges are good as long as they aren't overwhelmingly strong and are centered in the Atlantic.
We will likely see the Euro get in range to this pattern in the next 3 days or so, and we'll see how it goes. Cautiously optimistic is the phrase!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I just took at weeklies too, they look stormy with system's cutting more than anything. If that's the case, winter is over. But, I'm not letting my guard down for winter storms until late March.
I like how the weekly shows a storm system showing up during the 12th-13th or so cause that's when the blizzard of '93 occured. Not saying that it's going to be a blizzard again. Some of the most wild weather can occur in March so we'll see what happens.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
I like how the weekly shows a storm system showing up during the 12th-13th or so cause that's when the blizzard of '93 occured. Not saying that it's going to be a blizzard again. Some of the most wild weather can occur in March so we'll see what happens.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
well ok then
Here come the modoki screamers . The above looks way overdone to me .
#lolmodoki
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Here come the modoki screamers . The above looks way overdone to me .
#lolmodoki
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
whatalife
Moderator
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol, this is nuts.
pcbjr
Member
Grain of salt, but JB does present some interesting thoughts today on his free Daily Update
http://www.weatherbell.com/ (middle of the page)
http://www.weatherbell.com/ (middle of the page)
well ok then
Here come the modoki screamers . The above looks way overdone to me .
#lolmodoki
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Anyone want to take the bet against JB having a cold and snowy E US winter next winter? I certainly would not. If you were going to take the bet against him going cold, what kind of payoff on a $1 bet would you require if you were to get it right?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Some food for thought...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Essentially what HM is saying here is that exceptionally large El Nino events like 2014-16, 1997-98, 1877-78, etc lead to such massive alterations in the seasonal-interannual climate, specifically the upward step-changes in global temperature, that they're often semi-permanent and their impacts will reverberate throughout the climate system for years after they're gone.
We scored snow in the roaring, Godzilla Nino , in 15/16 winter, so I'll take it!
Nice wedge coming in Tuesday to crap up the warm week