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Wintry February 7-8 Winter storm

ForsythSnow said:
The HRRR is a sight to drool over. Widespread 40 dbz rates for snow is something to love.
HRRRSE_prec_ptype_021.png
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Textbook thump right there
 
Hrrrr is cold rain for upstate sc. north Georgia still does well though


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Reached 37F earlier in northeast Cobb, down to 35 now.
 
Yeah latest HRRR/RAP runs went big toward all other models bringing snow down to Metro... HRRR is very close to HRW WRF-NSSL if the temperature ended up maintaining on the low end in certain areas it's Transitions between Rain/Snow at heavier rates if it held out totals would be very good but nonetheless both these guys jump big and it's not unrealistic at this point to expect even accumulations of an inch thru Metro Atl even
 
If we get 1-3 here there is no way the high tomorrow will be 47 which the NWS shows. They also don't show accumulation even up to Dahlonega yet lol.
 
I’m seeing some flakes mix in with the rain bands moving through Charlotte right now ... if we can get this light precip to mix with some flurries at this temperature today imagine what tomorrow would be like .. models just aren’t good with snow profiling as of recent
 
mydoortotheworld said:
Don't the WRF's overdo it sometimes?
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I think you’re often right, especially in its longer range, so I’d be careful with it. But you can bet I’d be hugging it and shoving all my chips into the center of the table if I lived in N GA, regardless.
 
ForsythSnow said:
It's terribly conservative. If they update their disco and say something like a dusting is possible, they're going to have a lot of angry people if the models are right.
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No doubt. I just don't get the high temps they put out either unless that is based off a minor event. Oh well, guess they will play the catch up game again.
 
This is the Baron model, it's showing snow for all of northern Georgia at 10am and lasting through noon changing over to sleet/freezing rain for the CAD area's. The snow actually starts to move in early as 8am. We're going to see several hours of snow!

10am

10am.jpg

11am

11am.jpg

12pm

12pm.jpg

1pm, snow changing to sleet/freezing rain for CAD area's.

1pm.jpg
 
WXinCanton said:
1000 ft might get nothing while 1500 ft might get a couple inches north of ATL. One of those cool events where Kennesaw mountain would be snow capped.
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The models are making it look like the cutoff is around 1000-1100, but 1400-1500 seems realistic.
 
WxWatch said:
This is the Baron model, it's showing snow for all of northern Georgia at 10am and lasting through noon changing over to sleet/freezing rain for the CAD area's. The snow actually starts to move in early as 8am. We're going to see several hours of snow!

10am

View attachment 33419

11am

View attachment 33420

12pm

View attachment 33421

1pm, snow changing to sleet/freezing rain for CAD area's.

View attachment 33422
Click to expand...

Who’s model is this not sure I believe it but I like it


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000
FXUS62 KFFC 072005
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
305 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020



.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Mostly cloudy skies expected to break up this evening allowing temps
to fall to the low- to mid-30s tonight and tomorrow morning. A h850
shortwave is expected to sweep through the southeast tonight and
tomorrow morning, with relatively smaller PWAT values but enough to
produce a tenth to a half an inch across the northern CWA. With
temps just above the surface below freezing this means winter precip
will be involved, and even though QPF is expected to be low, it will
be enough with an approximate 7.5:1 snow-water ratio for minor snow
accumulations to occur with a rain/snow mix across North Georgia.
Only about a tenth to a half inch of snow accumulations outside the
mountainous regions are expected but with rains and warm ground
temps, if anything falls it probably won`t stick around long. In
mountainous regions up north this could be a different story.
Embedded in colder temps, areas of NW Georgia could see 1-2 inches,
with higher elevations along the spine and mountaintops of the GA
Blue Ridge mountains could see up to 4 inches in some isolated
locations. This has prompted a Winter Weather Advisory for the
majority of Northern GA. Temps may climb into the upper 30s before
the transition from snow to rain occurs with some slick spots
possible where any accumulations occur. Temps tomorrow night will
also drop back into the low-30s for N GA, which may continue to
cause some slick spots Sunday morning.


Thiem

National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov forecast.weather.gov
 
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