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Pattern February 2024

weatherfide said:
View attachment 142659Looks "meh" on the GEFS at 06Z 1/16/2024 to start off the month. Let's see where it goes from here!
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As I said in the January thread. There’s nothing wrong with that look. It’s a smoothed out mean. You can still see the strong signal for a tall western ridge better positioned and good confluence over the northeast
 
February and March of 2014 where two great months in Greensboro wx history. Had countless events, especially March. Racked up 16 total inches just off those 2 months. I believe 2014-2016 we where in a long, pretty strong el Niño. I stand to be corrected. That Jan was very similar to this one. Surprisingly Gboro has had 2 separate cases of a Trace of Snow logged in the books in Jan 2024. Anyway, I think there have been something like 30 el ninos since 1900 and like 5-6 registered as strong. The 2014-2016 is one of them. So who knows. Just trying to find some nuggets. We will have a pretty good idea once we flip the calendar on 2/1 and are able to see 15 days out on the models how things are gonna shake out. I'm really rooting for a tall western ridge to get set up right on the money and stay locked in. That want guarantee anything, but will give us way better odds to get other factors that come along to work in our favor. Its the #1 item I root for and look for pattern chasing, even before I glance up in the NW Atlantic.
 
February will likely be a month where we see saw from cold periods to mild ones and will average slightly below normal overall. I do think with the swings of the temperatures it will lead to more cyclogenesis coming through from California to Texas and then across the gulf states and, hopefully, they will come during the cool spells and we can score a winter storm or two. With the shorter wave lengths and an active SJT, we are bound to see a threat during the month for the entire SE but I would not bet a lot of money on it being all snow.
 
NCSNOW said:
February and March of 2014 where two great months in Greensboro wx history. Had countless events, especially March. Racked up 16 total inches just off those 2 months. I believe 2014-2016 we where in a long, pretty strong el Niño. I stand to be corrected. That Jan was very similar to this one. Surprisingly Gboro has had 2 separate cases of a Trace of Snow logged in the books in Jan 2024. Anyway, I think there have been something like 30 el ninos since 1900 and like 5-6 registered as strong. The 2014-2016 is one of them. So who knows. Just trying to find some nuggets. We will have a pretty good idea once we flip the calendar on 2/1 and are able to see 15 days out on the models how things are gonna shake out. I'm really rooting for a tall western ridge to get set up right on the money and stay locked in. That want guarantee anything, but will give us way better odds to get other factors that come along to work in our favor. Its the #1 item I root for and look for pattern chasing, even before I glance up in the NW Atlantic.
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13-14 Neutral
14-15 Weak El Nino
15-16 Super El Nino
 
I'll go with 2014 February that's when I had my all time biggest snow 19 inches, that def band was something else 4 inches an hour for a few hours. It snowed like 8 inches overnight and def band came through that morning and dropped 11 inches in 4 hours it was amazing...
 
BIG FROSTY said:
I'll go with 2014 February that's when I had my all time biggest snow 19 inches, that def band was something else 4 inches an hour for a few hours. It snowed like 8 inches overnight and def band came through that morning and dropped 11 inches in 4 hours it was amazing...
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That was the one where I was out of town on business in Detroit lol, ugh. They got a foot at home with big finish / big flakes that morning like you mention. That storm had huge potential out in the piedmont too, but Raleigh kind of got in on the early overrunning wave of the storm (photo of fire and cars wrecked everywhere), and western piedmont got hit harder with the 2nd wave of the trailing upper low moving in. Needed to have those 2 sync up
 
griteater said:
That was the one where I was out of town on business in Detroit lol, ugh. They got a foot at home with big finish / big flakes that morning like you mention. That storm had huge potential out in the piedmont too, but Raleigh kind of got in on the early overrunning wave of the storm (photo of fire and cars wrecked everywhere), and western piedmont got hit harder with the 2nd wave of the trailing upper low moving in. Needed to have those 2 sync up
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There was also this initial disturbance the day before that jackpotted eastern NC. It sure feels like Raleigh gets screwed in all directions and has paid dearly for the January 2000 jackpot, of which I was not here for either.

accum.20140211.gif
 
BIG FROSTY said:
I'll go with 2014 February that's when I had my all time biggest snow 19 inches, that def band was something else 4 inches an hour for a few hours. It snowed like 8 inches overnight and def band came through that morning and dropped 11 inches in 4 hours it was amazing...
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2004 and 2014 were the two best February storms in my lifetime here in Charlotte. Maybe we’re due?
 
griteater said:
That was the one where I was out of town on business in Detroit lol, ugh. They got a foot at home with big finish / big flakes that morning like you mention. That storm had huge potential out in the piedmont too, but Raleigh kind of got in on the early overrunning wave of the storm (photo of fire and cars wrecked everywhere), and western piedmont got hit harder with the 2nd wave of the trailing upper low moving in. Needed to have those 2 sync up
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That is the storm that took out the Eisenhower Tree at Augusta National. I think they got like an inch of ice accumulation.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
I'll go with 2014 February that's when I had my all time biggest snow 19 inches, that def band was something else 4 inches an hour for a few hours. It snowed like 8 inches overnight and def band came through that morning and dropped 11 inches in 4 hours it was amazing...
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I was so bitter I missed out on the unforecasted deformation band. Made me bitter about my measly 8” when I was what was unfolding in the foothills! ?
 
1300m said:
There was also this initial disturbance the day before that jackpotted eastern NC. It sure feels like Raleigh gets screwed in all directions and has paid dearly for the January 2000 jackpot, of which I was not here for either.

View attachment 142698
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Yeah, that was a huge overperformer, too. Can’t believe it’s been 10 years. ?

At least Raleigh overperformed on memes in that storm.

148977232_4024878940863830_1048854207332628338_n.jpg
 
griteater said:
That was the one where I was out of town on business in Detroit lol, ugh. They got a foot at home with big finish / big flakes that morning like you mention. That storm had huge potential out in the piedmont too, but Raleigh kind of got in on the early overrunning wave of the storm (photo of fire and cars wrecked everywhere), and western piedmont got hit harder with the 2nd wave of the trailing upper low moving in. Needed to have those 2 sync up
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That was actually 3 parts… a shortwave southern slider on the 11th gave me 3.3”, the big storm started 18 hours later on the 12th and I got 7.4” snow/sleet during the day and evening, went to a period of light freezing rain overnight and got .2” of ice, then went back to heavy snow the next morning with the upper low swinging though and had another 3.9”. Without a doubt one of my favorite weeks of winter weather
 
Chazwin said:
That was actually 3 parts… a shortwave southern slider on the 11th gave me 3.3”, the big storm started 18 hours later on the 12th and I got 7.4” snow/sleet during the day and evening, went to a period of light freezing rain overnight and got .2” of ice, then went back to heavy snow the next morning with the upper low swinging though and had another 3.9”. Without a doubt one of my favorite weeks of winter weather
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13-14 was a great winter. Pacific was in good shape that year. At least we got memories lol
 
Itryatgolf said:
13-14 was a great winter. Pacific was in good shape that year. At least we got memories lol
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IMBY, it was the last great winter, but we didn’t see a flake until mid-February. Same for 2015, which also turned out to be a solid winter once all was said and done.
 
superjames1992 said:
Yeah, that was a huge overperformer, too. Can’t believe it’s been 10 years. ?

At least Raleigh overperformed on memes in that storm.
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Wow 10 years flew by. That was such a great storm, and the days spent tracking it with Burgertime posting the images of those bomb model runs. They were almost unbelievable. I second that one to the crusher on my list.
 
SD said:
That early Feb pattern is probably not going to be for the faint of heart. Looks very similar to the 14/15 model runs that wanted to extend the warmth and ridge east but it consistently got cut off. Let's see what happens
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for the dummies ill ask..u think its gonna be colder?
 
Chazwin said:
Great CAD set up. Temperatures in the mid to upper 60s the day before the storm and then steadily dropped starting late afternoon and were in the 20s by the next morning.
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We were driving from Nashville back over the mountains. It was 54 in BNA when we left and still in the 50s as we crossed through the mountains on 40 east. By time we got down the hill to Rutherfordton County, it was dropping through the lower 40s. As I recall, that event was progged to be all freezing rain(after the awful December storm) and sleet saved the day.
 
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