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Pattern February 2024

Somebody is going to pick up an accumulation of soft hail/graupel this Saturday and maybe even normal hail. Very steep mid level lapse rates along with 100+ jkg of 3CAPE, very cold air aloft, and a nice cape profile for an otherwise lowered troposphere. It’s interesting as well because Hodographs here are supportive of hail sustainability but this isn’t your typical big hail setup thermodynamically CD5BE062-0174-4ACF-9422-D102AB4B3977.pngFA94D259-3D9E-42EE-8685-0EA25871CEB1.png05AAA61F-9CE8-4651-B022-D3FB0639AE16.png17BA078F-D900-4928-8B5A-BCE54DA79EC2.png597160A2-BCE0-486C-8AC8-E19902594F42.png
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Could this be like a Feb 2013? IK that was snow, but that was also a radnom Deathband i thought. Although it couldve been a ULL too i dont remember
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I’ve been getting those vibes as well for some reason, but it looks like our airmass outside of the mountains is a tad warmer. We’d need some real strong convective action to cool the column quickly. That being said, I was outside shooting basketball when that line of graupel came through in 2013. Temp dropped from the low to mid 40s into the mid 30s almost instantly, and accumulation was also instantaneous. It’s something I’d love to experience again.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Somebody is going to pick up an accumulation of soft hail/graupel this Saturday and maybe even normal hail. Very steep mid level lapse rates along with 100+ jkg of 3CAPE, very cold air aloft, and a nice cape profile for an otherwise lowered troposphere. It’s interesting as well because Hodographs here are supportive of hail sustainability but this isn’t your typical big hail setup thermodynamically View attachment 146834View attachment 146835View attachment 146836View attachment 146837View attachment 146838
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FR! Y’all just giving up on life and about to score! 4EBF8444-F1D0-4E85-A255-6BBF983D19F9.png316E299A-3934-4FC2-959E-5012B2EAFEB6.png
 
CltNative90 said:
I’ve been getting those vibes as well for some reason, but it looks like our airmass outside of the mountains is a tad warmer. We’d need some real strong convective action to cool the column quickly. That being said, I was outside shooting basketball when that line of graupel came through in 2013. Temp dropped from the low to mid 40s into the mid 30s almost instantly, and accumulation was also instantaneous. It’s something I’d love to experience again.
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Yea, When it started that day it was like an afternoon storm in July it ripped for about 30-1hr and then it was gone we got 1-2" in Kannapolis at the time
 
It'll be tough to flip Saturday to snow unless we can get a large mass of steady moderate to heavy precip behind the convective band so we can capitalize on CAA and the wbz crashing down to the 925 layer. The 3k gives the blue print with the snow embedded in the larger area of precipitation along the nc va border at the end of the run. The stuff early to mid afternoon has the wbz around 875mb which is great for graupel/small hail but the melting layer is too deep and the sfc will likely be 50-60 for many of us with a SW wind and dews only around freezing
 
CLTStrong69 said:
Really nice snow in Banner Elk
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Yeah, Banner Elk is nice (foot of Beech Mountain). It's a little higher elevation than Boone and many times that really helps.

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