Pattern February 2024

[superjames1992]

What would y’all set the odds for March snow at? 1:50? 1:100? 1:500? Say for points along and north of 85 in north and South Carolina

Like for a trace or something substantial? I actually don’t think the odds are too terrible for at least a trace. Probability wouldn’t go 50/50 or that high, but it’s not that hard to get a trace of snow in March. For a substantial storm, the odds are surely longer, but you never know.

 

[superjames1992]

We would get this look to show up in March sometimes you have to laugh to keep from cryingView attachment 146713

1992-93 was a trash winter until mid-March, too, if I remember right, so we can work with this! But the Superstorm shafted MBY, anyways.

 

[superjames1992]

Yep. We get to march 1 and the next 10 days look like donkey ---- on the models then it’s game over. I’m not writing off some early March event yet. That said, I’m not holding my breath and am actually looking forward to some 70s

Yeah, early March is honestly pretty much still peak climo for a lot of us. So things can definitely work out then. But as you get past March 15th, it gets much harder. But there are exceptions. NC saw minor events in April 2018 and 2019 and there were a couple small late March events in 2018 as well as 2014 and 2011. For larger events, it’s harder, but there’s exceptions like late March and mid April 1983, late March 1981, April 1915, April 1989, etc.

Once we get to early March and the long term models still look like crap, it’s probably about time to raise the white flag, though.

 

[EmersonGA]

20.3 and will still drop a bit more. That'll get the bermuda greening up.

 

[rburrel2]

Looks like maybe some flurries reaching the ground in Southeast Georgia per radar? (would probably be sleet pellets after looking at soundings). Actually looks super dry in the 850-900mb levels, probably no chance of reaching the ground.

 

[rburrel2]

Some noise on the 06z GEFS in the March 2nd-6th timeframe. Maybe we can get one last period of favorability at least.

 

[AJ1013]

Upper 50’s and overcast with a moist, raw NW wind this morning. Coco palms almost tall enough to reach into the low stratus deck.

 

[AJ1013]

Been an unusual winter with so many storm systems plowing straight into the FL peninsula bringing long duration chilly stratiform rain lasting hours to days. Normally the center of the low tracks well to my north and I get the tail end of the front. Maybe I’ve just forgotten what Niño winters are like lol.

 

[LukeBarrette]

NE snowstorm booooo

 

[NCSNOW]

Another Cold weekend coming up: Canadian is stupid cold. All have it in an out.

Where euro is finding moisture I dont know.

 

[Metwannabe]

Another Cold weekend coming up: Canadian is stupid cold. All have it in an out.

Where euro is finding moisture I dont know.

View attachment 146733

View attachment 146734

There's a robust disturbance moving through and the Euro has this 700mb RH values, so it's gonna wring out any precip it can. Unfortunately BL is way too warm for any light precip, IF heavier rates could probably see a flake or two. But it'll probably be gone at 12z lol

 

[KyloG]

Remember back in mid/late-January it was a slam dunk 8-1-2 was coming...well we got ph8 for 1 day and now it raced back over to ph4.

 

[SnowNiner]

Remember back in mid/late-January it was a slam dunk 8-1-2 was coming...well we got ph8 for 1 day and now it raced back over to ph4.

View attachment 146737

Yeah I saw that and raised flags with the meandering in 7 then dying, but all were comfortable with the convection charts taking us to 8. This seems like every year, and confirms in my mind our issue is in the pacific or is directly affecting pacific convection.

 

[Jan88]

That’s a crazy perfect split flow look even by fantasy standards. That’s one you wanna frame

March 25 1971 almost a foot in the upstate an ne ga . We had thunder snow near toccoa ga that afternoon

 

[SD]

Yeah I saw that and raised flags with the meandering in 7 then dying, but all were comfortable with the convection charts taking us to 8. This seems like every year, and confirms in my mind our issue is in the pacific or is directly affecting pacific convection.

Its possible that it's more related to the lack of -naos. No -nao no real way to drive waves south, mjo dies out after the WPAC phases, new convection takes over in the MC or we just spiral in the COD

 

[SnowNiner]

Its possible that it's more related to the lack of -naos. No -nao no real way to drive waves south, mjo dies out after the WPAC phases, new convection takes over in the MC or we just spiral in the COD

If we were talking about the loss of Miller A storms I'd agree. But in my anecdotal recollection, when we've scored many time in the recent past, it was a stout +pna ridge that helped the wave dig, and it morphed into a hybrid A/B that got the job done. -nao has never been in the equation that I can recall. The cold and the wave came from out west, and 9 out of 10 there was a WAR in the Atlantic.

If the nao affects the mjo, I have no idea.

 

[SD]

If we were talking about the loss of Miller A storms I'd agree. But in my anecdotal recollection, when we've scored many time in the recent past, it was a stout +pna ridge that helped the wave dig, and it morphed into a hybrid A/B that got the job done. -nao has never been in the equation that I can recall. The cold and the wave came from out west, and 9 out of 10 there was a WAR in the Atlantic.

If the nao affects the mjo, I have no idea.

We can do fine with just the pacific ridge if it's in the right location. I know people like ninos but give me a nina with the pac ridge biased east to the WC and we are going to print snow. Super impose a -nao on nina and we ice/snow until the cows come home.

That said there seems to be a link here between the -nao and the mjo propagation from the wpac to the w hem Africa sector. Now that we are largely absent of strong HLB and -naos most of out mjo waves piddle around in the wpac phases and die off or rocket through the whem/Africa even IO phases before the MC takes over again. This largely leaves us warm with intermittent cold that has limited staying power

 

[Tarheel1]

Y’all don’t give up!! Euro got U!

 

[BHS1975]

We can do fine with just the pacific ridge if it's in the right location. I know people like ninos but give me a nina with the pac ridge biased east to the WC and we are going to print snow. Super impose a -nao on nina and we ice/snow until the cows come home.

That said there seems to be a link here between the -nao and the mjo propagation from the wpac to the w hem Africa sector. Now that we are largely absent of strong HLB and -naos most of out mjo waves piddle around in the wpac phases and die off or rocket through the whem/Africa even IO phases before the MC takes over again. This largely leaves us warm with intermittent cold that has limited staying power

That MC has been kicking our ass for years now.


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[Tarheel1]

Euro still got it! That’s all snow! I’m using free maps