Pattern February 2024

[BullCityWx]

GEPS looks like it could be an improvement but we'll see

 

[$alt]

It's like synchronized swimming getting all these pieces to line up. We've got no business trying to follow these things from 10 days out, but we're just deranged snow hounds afflicted with a disease and can't help it. I will say this...because we have to look ahead so far into the future to see opportunities, many of the posters on here develop a feel over time with respect to which setups at range have real potential and are worth spending time investigating and which ones aren't.

I personally think this is the deep souths best chance in a while and I'm still on the fence if moisture is even going to get to the upstate+ region.

But then we have multiple waves being a possibility still, so who knows. Still looks possible as a whole for the SE.

 

[1300m]

Wouldn't a triple pull it too far north or with blocking we just get a pasting monster off the se coast?

Would depend on timing and sequencing most likely. Would need the northern stream to drive hard and turn it neutral and probably negative tilt at the right time to get it to work for the biggest portion of the board. @griteater is right that we really have no business trying to track something like this at such lead times, but it's hard to look away when you see the pieces staring you right in the face.

 

[Arcc]

Looking at 3-6C drop at 850mb temps in one run at 204hrs. That is huge for a mean.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

I think the Atlantic is putting its chips on the table, just need the Pacific to be our friend and cooperate this time.

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[NCSNOW]

So much for 70 degree weekend. 49, dropping currently and rain breaking out. Nice hybird insut-cad gonna lock in.

 

[Ollie Williams]

It’s insane that the GEFS is so much colder despite rather minimal changes at H5

 

[NCSNOW]

I say lets root for a triple phaser. If ever there was a window of opportunity to not get left on the outside looking in, while folks to our north edit the Koclin history books, this is it. Whats another 10 months of snow drought. Ive become numb now its been so long.

 

[accu35]

 

[griteater]

In what alternate reality would this not produce a east coast winter storm View attachment 145885

Here's what I would say Jimmy - drop the big incoming Gulf of Alaska wave south a little > that would change the tilt of our wave running from Baja to TX to negative tilt > plow the wave into the 5050 complex that is a little more NEast than curent > then slide the wave due east because of the confluence with the 5050 low. It would be kind of a blend between the GEM here and the Euro / Euro Control

The Deep South crew wouldn't want as much negative tilt there (too warm).

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

Here's what I would say Jimmy - drop the big incoming Gulf of Alaska wave south a little > that would change the tilt of our wave running from Baja to TX to negative tilt > plow the wave into the 5050 complex that is a little more NEast than curent > then slide the wave due east because of the confluence with the 5050 low. It would be kind of a blend between the GEM here and the Euro / Euro Control

The Deep South crew wouldn't want as much negative tilt there (too warm).

View attachment 145889

Yea but Negative Tilt brings the Cadillacs to CAD regions GA/SC/NC

 

[NCSNOW]

It’s insane that the GEFS is so much colder despite rather minimal changes at H5
View attachment 145890

Cause its been using common core math in its programing. Needs some of that AVN hooked on phonics, programed back in it from the 90s.

 

[jrips27]

Couple of SE hits on the GEFS

 

[Mitch West]

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Couple of SE hits on the GEFS View attachment 145892

4 run trend of the GEFS 24 hour precip accumulation

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[KyloG]

Uh oh...well atleast we getting a foot for the day 8-9 deal.

GEPS wants to crank up our nemesis...the GOA ridge.

 

[Snowfan]

EPS too.

Uh oh...well atleast we getting a foot for the day 8-9 deal.

GEPS wants to crank up our nemesis...the GOA ridge.

View attachment 145895View attachment 145896

 

[Cary_Snow95]

EPS too.

This appears to be the opposite… this animation shows the ridge being replaced by a trough

 

[KyloG]

EPS too.

This appears to be the opposite… this animation shows the ridge being replaced by a trough

I'm sure nobody really wants to look at this but the ensembles are clearly showing a flip of EPO to + around the 22-24th and the weeklies keep it positive through the first week of March. Would be tough to overcome that.

So yeah, AK ridge replaced with trough. Hopefully the weeklies are wrong.

 

[SD]

I'm sure nobody really wants to look at this but the ensembles are clearly showing a flip of EPO to + around the 22-24th and the weeklies keep it positive through the first week of March. Would be tough to overcome that.

So yeah, AK ridge replaced with trough. Hopefully the weeklies are wrong.

View attachment 145899View attachment 145900

Looks like Feb mjo p1-3 to me