Pattern February 2024

[Ollie Williams]

The 18z GEFS had the biggest run in the extended for this period.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

What’s intriguing about this H5 pattern is the 50/50 low and tendency of heights to go around average near the lakes which encourages higher pressure trailing the big 50/50 along with the active S/S
This is favorable for cold air damming

 

[Ollie Williams]

Larry (@GaWx) on American seems optimistic

The potential for significant SE wintry precip 2/15-20, especially 2/17-20, is not at all going away and is if anything increasing as we get closer while the big picture doesn’t change. At least 75% of the last 3 GEFS runs ending with the 6Z have SE US wintry precip outside of the mountains somewhere within Feb 15-20. About 50% of the 6Z members have it including outside of NC with 4 of the 30 even as far south as N FL.

It is hard to look better than this 10-15 days out. The big picture is still very much intact with a hard to beat combo of a very strong -AO, moderate +PNA, -EPO, neutral to -NAO, strong subtropical jet/split flow, and the tendency for 50/50 lows (which tend to hold cold in longer). Moderate+ El Niño climo is quite supportive, too. It never hurts to have analogs on your side.

I hope to post more about the very strong -AO later as far as El Niño analogs are concerned.

 

[Chazwin]

Just hope it isn’t to suppressive by sticking around, but normally they trend quicker closer to go time. Give me a Miller B mixed bag with front end snow to mix, that’s the only way to win seemingly the last decade. but that’s a good look

Well according to Webb’s research our area does historically do better with miller B’s than Miller A’s. You can always count out a good strong FGEN forcing on the front end like we saw in January 2022

 

[Stormlover]

 

[BullCityWx]

 

[Arcc]

Definitely think there is some smoke for a miller A somewhere in here.

 

[Rain Cold]

The 18z GEFS had the biggest run in the extended for this period.
View attachment 145288View attachment 145289View attachment 145293

I like to see the snowfall footprint oriented more west to east or wsw to ene. You see that signal somewhat showing up in the ensembles. That is a good sign.

 

[NCSNOW]

We should have a legimate threat , possibly threats to track by this weekend at the latest. Said threats will be inside 10 day mark.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[LickWx]

Brad tweaking . I don’t have any solid irrefutable evidence on this but I personally believe that late February and early March have the highest potential to have the most extreme negative departures as the arctic has not really warmed much… I could be wrong though but March 1960 is the most anomalous month in history and it’s not even close. December 2015 is more normal than March 1960.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

? Man he’s really sweating this one. He thought he had a tap-in birdie on a snowless winter but he walked up onto the green and realized it’s actually a 5 footer downhill

 

[iGRXY]

Somebody want to let him know that February has been one of the best times in winter for the western carolinas for winter storms? He's trying too hard right now

 

[Forevertothee]

He also went on to say in comments, "there is no arctic air on the way and no winter set-up. The cool anomalies are caused by rain and clouds, not cold air. That's why it's so warm north of the storm track." And later in comments "no signs of ridge and all the cold air is on the other side of the hemisphere in the long range." Not what I wanted to read this evening.

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

This is the same man that shows a graph and constantly reminds people February is the snowiest month in Charlotte. I guess all that snow falls in the first half of February. This is a defeated meteorologist that's speaking with emotion just like we do on here. I get what he's saying, 15 below the average high won't do it. But 15 below the average low will. Plenty of snow days warmed to the 40s later in the day. Plenty also started in the 40s and radiational cooling took over. Even I can't believe this man said this. Especially still 10+ days out.

 

[DopplerWx]

He also went on to say in comments, "there is no arctic air on the way and no winter-set. The cool anomalies are caused by rain and clouds, not cold air. That's why it's so warm north of the storm track. And later in comments "no signs of ridge and all the cold air is on the other side of the hemisphere in the long range."

He saw his foot of snow at a met conference in Tahoe a few weeks ago and now is full on anti snow troll, it’s weird

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I guess we'll see if he ends up right

It doesn’t take a lot of risk to bet against snow around here especially late into February, but his reasoning isn’t merit based. Like you said 15 below the avg low would be a high ratio Feb snowstorm. Or make a few tweaks to a setup and -15BN mid day becomes -25BN with a low bombing out in the right spot funneling cold air down the backside of the mountain. We’ve got to score one here and never let him hear the end of it.

 

[KyloG]

If it can snow a foot in CAE on Halloween it sure as hell better be able to snow around here in mid/end Feb.

 

[Tarheelwx]

If you have a 55/35 avg, that means the avg for the day is 45. So 15 below would be 30 - in other words the snow would start midday at 35 and bottom out under heavy precip at 25. So 15 below this time of year is PLENTY cold.
TW

 

[LukeBarrette]

GFS wants a solid coastal system on the 14th for Mid-Atlantic regions. Certainly would help things. With each system the snow footprint should shift south… putting many in the 20th timeframe in a good spot.