Pattern February 2024

[SD]

That big D7 phase on the euro is interesting. Probably not enough cold yanked in behind it for the 15th/16th to get us started early

 

[Arcc]

That big D7 phase on the euro is interesting. Probably not enough cold yanked in behind it for the 15th/16th to get us started early

That blocking though….

 

[SD]

That blocking though….

View attachment 145242

Ridge axis from the WC up through he NWT is one of the better precursors to E of the apps cold that I've found. Withthis at D10 no need to really over analyze it but those E of a montgomery to atlanta to knoxville line would want the cinnabon north of MN farther east. You guys would look good in this setup.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Ridge axis from the WC up through he NWT is one of the better precursors to E of the apps cold that I've found. Withthis at D10 no need to really over analyze it but those E of a montgomery to atlanta to knoxville line would want the cinnabon north of MN farther east. You guys would look good in this setup. View attachment 145244

Which looks like exactly where said cinnabon looks to be headed by day 11.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

euro op Vs ens

 

[iGRXY]

 

[Mitch West]

 

[Chazwin]

That blocking though….

View attachment 145242

Been busy for the last couple hours and just saw this… that’s a January/February 2003, February 2010 like block.

 

[griteater]

Euro Weeklies into mid-March want to rot the cold trough right on top of us. I hope you don't coach Little League Baseball

 

[packfan98]

Looks like the MJO still wants to make the loop, but now it appears to loop between phases 8 and 7 instead of phases 7 and 6.

 

[SASQUATCH]

Euro Weeklies into mid-March want to rot the cold trough right on top of us. I hope you don't coach Little League Baseball

View attachment 145256

However, outdoor fireside chats will be the bomb-diggity well into March. ?️ ? ?

 

[griteater]

Looks like the MJO still wants to make the loop, but now it appears to loop between phases 8 and 7 instead of phases 7 and 6.

From NOAA CPC's Weekly MJO Update:

 

[CaryWx]

This is what I want to see. PV tucking beautifully under the Greenland block, window would be wide open after this for a southern slider.
View attachment 145263

Late in the run, hints of something appearing.

Are we losing the west ridge in that first graph as it gets towards the 20th?

 

[packfan98]

Are we losing the west ridge in that first graph as it gets towards the 20th?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Now that’s mega blocking.

 

[Chazwin]

I mentioned this earlier, you kinda want that +PNA to fluctuate some and not stay strongly positive. Often times it’s those periods it heads towards neutral that the southeast scores a good storm

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Possibly (it's so far out we're losing a lot of things to smoothed out means), but we're also gaining undercutting energy moving in at a favorable latitude with a locked-in PV in prime position. The time period just after the 20th that I believe @griteater has also been mentioning looks to be our time if we can keep the trends going.
View attachment 145267

Would love the get that deep TPV lobe to move northeast slowly in Tandem with rising heights right behind the TPV itself around the lakes with some southern stream moving east, some CMCE members did that, that would get us a classic deep cold wedge setup. -NAO this go around looks oriented more NE to SW which is more favorable to keep the TPV or a TPV extension around the 50/50 area, and hang around at that.

 

[Arcc]

Ridge axis from the WC up through he NWT is one of the better precursors to E of the apps cold that I've found. Withthis at D10 no need to really over analyze it but those E of a montgomery to atlanta to knoxville line would want the cinnabon north of MN farther east. You guys would look good in this setup. View attachment 145244

I would definitely be happy with that progression if it is showing four or so days out

 

[Arcc]

Which looks like exactly where said cinnabon looks to be headed by day 11. View attachment 145245

I love seeing that 558dm benchmark digging into north AL.

 

[dsaur]

That was a stout cad yesterday. Had 4 trees in a clump blow down from ne to sw. Up by the roots in well soaked ground. Get a cad like that when It's cold enough, and we've got something.