Pattern February 2024

[griteater]

Possibly (it's so far out we're losing a lot of things to smoothed out means), but we're also gaining undercutting energy moving in at a favorable latitude with a locked-in PV in prime position. The time period just after the 20th that I believe @griteater has also been mentioning looks to be our time if we can keep the trends going.

I've mentioned a lot of time periods, so there's no way I can miss hahaha. No really, everything is falling in place, and like mentioned last night, it's just going to come down to the smaller details going forward I think.

Here is a 500mb comparison for days 10-15 on the GEFS / EPS / CMCE.

The GEFS is injecting the most momentum into the Pac Jet and has this Super El Nino look to it with the more intense and farther east Aleutian Low anomalies. That breaks down some of the western N America ridge strength; and on the Atlantic side, the -NAO isn't quite as robust

The CMCE is the weakest of the 3 with the Pac Jet and has the strongest W N Amer ridge and -NAO signature.

As mentioned before, I think the EPS is the one to ride with in this El Nino / Split / HL Blocking setup. Given that it lies in between the other 2 gives it even more credence.



Accordingly, here is the temperature comparison where the CMCE is the coldest by far. The CMCE is the place where I'd personally like to see us in the end. I'd like to see the GEFS and EPS trend colder...and if there ever is a scenario where models trend colder, it's with heavy -NAO blocking signatures like this.




If this were to not work out on the front side of the nice pattern, I don't think that's going to be the end of it. The Euro Weeklies here make a beautiful move in dropping the Greenland blocking anomalies to the west <and> south, while the Pac Jet backs off some and western ridging isn't getting impinged

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

I've mentioned a lot of time periods, so there's no way I can miss hahaha. No really, everything is falling in place, and like mentioned last night, it's just going to come down to the smaller details going forward I think.

Here is a 500mb comparison for days 10-15 on the GEFS / EPS / CMCE.

The GEFS is injecting the most momentum into the Pac Jet and has this Super El Nino look to it with the more intense and farther east Aleutian Low anomalies. That breaks down some of the western N America ridge strength; and on the Atlantic side, the -NAO isn't quite as robust

The CMCE is the weakest of the 3 with the Pac Jet and has the strongest W N Amer ridge and -NAO signature.

As mentioned before, I think the EPS is the one to ride with this El Nino / Split / HL Blocking setup. Given that it lies in between the other 2 gives it even more credence.
View attachment 145268


Accordingly, here is the temperature comparison where the CMCE is the coldest by far. The CMCE is the place where I'd personally like to see us in the end. I'd like to see the GEFS and EPS trend colder...and if there ever is a scenario where models trend colder, it's with heavy -NAO blocking signatures like this.

View attachment 145269


If this were to not work out on the front side of the nice pattern, I don't think that's going to be the end of it. The Euro Weeklies here make a beautiful move in dropping the Greenland blocking anomalies to the west south, while the Pac Jet backs off some and western ridging isn't getting impinged

View attachment 145270

Great in-depth post as always Grit!

Sent from my SM-A136U1 using Tapatalk

 

[griteater]

Here is a Pac Jet comparison at day 15 where the GEFS has the stronger jet running into Baja compared to the EPS...and you can see the stronger wave / trough signature in the Gulf of Alaska

 

[Ron Burgundy]

I love seeing that 558dm benchmark digging into north AL.

What’s the significance of that? Asking for a friend

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Would be cool if the day 8 storm could do something like this. Anything helps

 

[Snowfan]

Would be cool if the day 8 storm could do something like this. Anything helps View attachment 145272

Euro showed something similar yesterday but now it cuts it more north.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Would be cool if the day 8 storm could do something like this. Anything helps View attachment 145272

Would take in a heartbeat, would be nice to score with a pattern flipper

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Would take in a heartbeat, would be nice to score with a pattern flipper

Not only does it lay a little snowpack to the north, but it also becomes a big bombing low in the Atlantic, which is key in this upcoming pattern

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Probably the best run I’ve seen pattern wise for just after day 10

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Would be cool if the day 8 storm could do something like this. Anything helps View attachment 145272

Step it down one time. We’d like a good snowpack at least over PA to anchor our ? high

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Sfc pattern is ?

 

[Arcc]

What’s the significance of that? Asking for a friend

I don’t know about the Carolinas, but from the past snows storms in AL you want to be close to that line. Now ofcourse, situations vary, but when I see that 558dm line preferably the 552dm line dig deep my ears definitely perk up.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Difference between yesterdays/todays setup, and just after D10, is the general longwave pattern is shifted west, which allows a much better injected cold source

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This pattern is now under day 10. Still 384 hours though right

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

We just ain’t gonna talk about this? 50/50 low ain’t budging…honk honk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We just ain’t gonna talk about this? 50/50 low ain’t budging…honk honkView attachment 145286

Just hope it isn’t to suppressive by sticking around, but normally they trend quicker closer to go time. Give me a Miller B mixed bag with front end snow to mix, that’s the only way to win seemingly the last decade. but that’s a good look

 

[Arcc]

We just ain’t gonna talk about this? 50/50 low ain’t budging…honk honkView attachment 145286

That my friend is beautiful. Would love to see something akin to February 2010 to track.

 

[rburrel2]

The problem with that system on the GFS is there seems to be zero support for a storm then on the EPS/CMCE.

But I'm thinking that's why they're looking better than the GFS/GEFS for a threat down the road a few days.

Probably has something to do with them showing a better/stronger 50/50 being established in that day 10-12 range.

 

[deltadog03]

I would also say, from what I have seen so far on a limited amount, this might be the last good shot we have for snow/ice in and south of the I-20 corridor at this point.