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Pattern February 2024

RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
This is the same man that shows a graph and constantly reminds people February is the snowiest month in Charlotte. I guess all that snow falls in the first half of February. This is a defeated meteorologist that's speaking with emotion just like we do on here. I get what he's saying, 15 below the average high won't do it. But 15 below the average low will. Plenty of snow days warmed to the 40s later in the day. Plenty also started in the 40s and radiational cooling took over. Even I can't believe this man said this. Especially still 10+ days out.
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Yeah… 2/26-27/2004 is a great example of that….the high on the 26th at CLT was 42 at midnight, but snowfall that day was 11.6”. On the 27th the high was 40 but there was still 1.7” of snowfall that date. Also the maps are ensemble means as well, if the pattern is right, the temperatures will be a lot lower
 
Forevertothee said:
He also went on to say in comments, "there is no arctic air on the way and no winter set-up. The cool anomalies are caused by rain and clouds, not cold air. That's why it's so warm north of the storm track." And later in comments "no signs of ridge and all the cold air is on the other side of the hemisphere in the long range." Not what I wanted to read this evening.
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Around 12/10/2022, he also posted that there would be no Arctic air coming around in the next several weeks around Christmas and that it was more likely that it would be 70 degrees at Christmas Day. Everyone on here could look at at every single index and and every single 500mb chart and know that was simply not true.
 
Almost fits the miller B recipe to a T
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Fro,
Definitely very very similar. However, isn’t that major cross polar flow in 2018 vs not very much if any showing on the GFS Ensembles you posted above? That is what I see as the biggest difference and I’d think it could lead to a significantly different outcome from a temp standpoint. Thoughts?
TW
 
Easy to see why the EPS is less ethnused with snow in the 288-360hr timeframe. It concentrates the PV lobe more over SE Canada, the GEFS/CMCE split a piece of it off further East near the Atlantic and that allows for some room for that southern wave to amplify.

The EPS is probably better for chances down the road after that, but worse for the day 10-15 threat window.

The CMCE is really the best of both worlds because it looks good long term too.

Just my two cents, but I'd really rather not have to can kick out past day 15 again which is pushing in to March, so I'm rooting for the CMCE/GEFS evolution. (also i'm out of town Feb 25th-March 2nd so that's affecting my rooting interests).

Screen Shot 2024-02-06 at 8.33.38 AM.pngScreen Shot 2024-02-06 at 8.33.29 AM.pngScreen Shot 2024-02-06 at 8.33.19 AM.png
 
rburrel2 said:
Easy to see why the EPS is less ethnused with snow in the 288-360hr timeframe. It concentrates the PV lobe more over SE Canada, the GEFS/CMCE split a piece of it off further East near the Atlantic and that allows for some room for that southern wave to amplify.

The EPS is probably better for chances down the road after that, but worse for the day 10-15 threat window.

The the CMCE is really the best of both worlds because it looks good long term too.

Just my two cents, but I'd really rather not have to can kick out past day 15 again which is pushing in to March, so I'm rooting for the CMCE/GEFS evolution. (also i'm out of town Feb 25th-March 2nd so that's affecting my rooting interests).
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While it certainly can snow in early March, I would definitely much rather have something between the 15th-25th
 
I like the GEPS better...you can see why the placement of the PV in southern Canada is so important. The GEPS was the first to sniff out the stout blocking and I think it will lead the way in the PV progression, it just might be a smidge quick.

EPS-GEPS-h5.gifEPS-GEPS-precip2.gif
 
personally i've always seen 3/1-3/10 as fruitful and as high potential as the rest of winter; for wilmington, for raleigh, for anywhere i've lived. i think after that chances fall off a cliff. you could argue you could sand a few days off on the low side these days as climate change chews into the feasibility of marginal events
 
ILMRoss said:
brad's sharp as a tack; odd take

that being said, can't be overstated how much these guys have to smother the flames and play bad cop against high schoolers with a wxbell account and that can be borne out with pessimistic tweets like this
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We had a high of 43 or 44 degrees on 1/22/03. It was snowing, hard, by midnight and the rest is history. That is an odd take for him.
 
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