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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

12z cmc pushing some 3” totals far north west into the western Triad/foothills. Some maps could bust on the low side up this way if it’s right.
 
-IP/-RN just started back, up to 45.3 and DP has dropped to 31.3. Feel pretty confident in the DP/RH readings as I have 3 sensors that monitor and all very closely aligned. I do not recall a time in memory here where we went from 45F at the surface to accumulating snow in 8hrs.
 
HRRR seems to be increasing each run for the western piedmont into the foothills. It went from blanking us to 2” maybe more once it’s done.
 
Probably not flipping to snow until the 4-6 pm time frame for us unless this starts banding up and goes crazy before

Man, I thought it would start a lot earlier than that here. Webber's map still looked good for my backyard, though. I thought it would have to start earlier to get those amounts.
 
latest wrf and hrrr showing light precip thru 4pm or so for clt, likely won't switch to snow until then. qpf not verifying as heavy as some of the models were showing.
 
Looking at the crappy maps on Pivotal, it looks like the latest RAP has increased snow amounts in Raleigh from 2" to 3"(Kuchera). Not much but everything helps. Still looks like a snow hole for the folks in the Triad.

Latest RAP starting to run crazy totals like the NAM had yesterday

RAPMA_prec_snow_035.png
 
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